I dont think 10crs/day revenue number is likely anytime soon.
that achievement will require multiple levers. Rally in the last one month was because of bullion market. once this euphoria subsides we need to see what we settle at.
keep an eye out for the UCC number in the results. that is the most important matrix for sustainable growth for the company.
for any trading market to develop you need all 3 speculators, retail and institution. hence im emphasising the UCC number. I believe that this recent rally would have brought in a lot of new traders to the commodity market. the new management is taking lots of new initiatives to widen the market participation (thats the most encouraging bit).
Lets see the results and hear out the mgmt commentory .
Price volatility would more help mcx than just rise.
So coming 12 month would bring more trade and revenue to mcx
July 4.56crs/day 23 trading days
Aug 4.66crs/day 20 trading days
Sep 6.29crs/day 22 trading days
Oct 9.50crs/day 22 trading days
Nov 6.31crs/day 05 trading days
need to keep an eye on the Active client numbers. Active clients went up to 7.9L from 7.0 need to track this number closely. I feel that the recent rally in bullion will bring in lots of new participants. Also, large prop trading frims are also moving to MCX. Excerpts from ShareIndia Securities q2 concall.
dont think Nov is degrowth. rather Oct was exceptional. lets look at this way.
For 2025
Jan-Mar 4.1-4.2crs/day Avg
Apr-June 5.2-5.3crs/day Avg
July-Sep 5.15-5.22crs/day Avg
Frenzy on Oct25 around gold and silver price and their life time high helped mcx. I see gold price going higher. Silver has also broken out of 50$ marka agin. This q could be 50 rs eps.
For 2025
Jan-Mar 4.1-4.2crs/day Avg
Apr-June 5.2-5.3crs/day Avg
July-Sep 5.15-5.22crs/day Avg
Oct-Nov 9.12crs/day Avg (up to 21st Nov) 37 days done in the qtr. 27 days pending.
how MCX makes money? transaction fees per traded contract or there is some role of contract value as well?
These revenue numbers per day are what exactly? contract value traded per day or actual revenue (transaction fees etc.) earned by MCX?
So with expected revenue of around 600Cr for this quarter and in a platform business profit rise should be higher than revenue rise, so are we looking at 400Cr PBT and post tax profits upwards of 320Cr..i,e 60% rise in PAT/EPS as compared to Q2FY26.. and if bullion keeps rising, we can expect a repeat in Q4aswell, pushing the yearly EPS to 220; almost double of FY25!
MD and CEO Praveena Rai https://youtu.be/suhF0bkg9Ug?t=614
Management - "commodity derivatives market in India is in it’s early growth phase, planning to scale systems to accomodate for a 10x txn growth viz. 10bn txns a day in 2-3 years time.
still 90% YoY and 55% QoQ . Gold , silver , zinc and copper will add into trading value and hence income. more than yoy eps almost doubling , momentum is upwards .
This trend is now well established . waiting for market to acknowledge and reward.
