Excellent results. EBITDA is 56% and with increasing operating leverage it should settle somewhere around 60%.
Projecting a conservative topline growth of 20-25% from here onwards, I see company hitting 1000 crore revenues and close to 500 crore PAT (assuming same EBITDA is maintained) by 2026.
At current market cap, 2 year forward multiple comes to roughly 40 p/e, which is in line with historical multiples. But that would still be below industry average looking at current multiples of BSEs of the world. And any further rerating of the stock should create significant upside to the stock price.
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But the QoQ revenue is down. Not sure why…
Given the business model of MCX, one shouldn’t look at qoq numbers as top line will not always be linear quarter by quarter due to changes in market sentiments and volatility levels (in both equity and commodity) which in turn drive the volumes. Annual revenue growth is a better indicator of market participation which has been on a continuous uptrend.
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But if volume goes up QOQ, should the revenue not go up?
Revenue and margin per transaction that MCX derives from different products, in both commodity and equity segments, vary which may explain divergence between volume and realization.
Need to check once again - what i recollect of having seen is volume is higher in all segments
Quoting a news article “the volume of options has grown from ₹95,989 crore in Q3FY24 to ₹113,672 crore, while the amount of futures has decreased from ₹20,796 crore to ₹17,558 crore. As a result, operating revenue decreased slightly from ₹191 crore to ₹181 crore”
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Stock has smartly recovered 18% in three sessions from 8% cut on post earning date. Not sure if Morgan Stanley downgrade had anything to do with it. (They placed a target price of 2000.)
For some reason MS has been perpetually bearish on the stock having given three downgrades in last three years. Clearly stock has disappointed them so far 
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I am holding this stock for a long and recent rally has put me in a dilemma about whether its still worth holding or its a bubble category now? Is 156 PE justified?
This is trailing PE, Expected PAT for FY25 is 450-500 Cr. So forward PE is not what is seen.
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what is your view on revenue growth going forward? even after posting good numbers the PE is still 96
The PE is artificially high as in Dec 23, there were significant payments to 53 moons provider of the legacy MCX exchange/trading platform. You should look at forward P/E.
Large of part of MCX costs are fixed so any additional revenues from increase in trading volumes go directly to the bottom line. MCX and most exchanges enjoy huge operating leverage.
A lot of new products are expected to be launched in the coming quarters. Expect volumes to increase post this. These were delayed pending the switch to the new trading platform. Look at the circulars on the MCX site https://www.mcxindia.com/circulars/all-circulars which show a slew of new product launches.
MCX enjoys nearly 98% share in commodity futures.
There is a huge runway, NSE and BSE options volumes are 250 times MCX volumes.
It is easy to track earnings, daily volumes are available on https://www.mcxindia.com/market-data/historical-data. Given operating leverage earnings are largely proportional to transaction volumnes.
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Jan month data has only 10 trading days.
The FUTIndex segment has not done well.
Almost all the option volume is coming from Crude & Energy segment. It could be because of the higher margin in Fut Segment.
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mcx now stock has become over valued ,stock can correct to 3000 levels also
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How are you measuring its over valuation ?
Would help if you can elaborate with your assumptions
Capital Market Businesses (AMCs, CDSL etc) are losing momentum as their earnings growth has started slowing down. Are these the initial signs of sector peaking out considering they are shallow cyclical businesses?
Just got little clarity, I heard whenever new thematic fund’s are launched in a sector, understood the sector reached it’s peak. Initially, I don’t believe much, but I can see that happening in capital markets. This might be a good point for future references for selling, even for long term investors.
Disc: holding a small amount
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