Excellent results. EBITDA is 56% and with increasing operating leverage it should settle somewhere around 60%.
Projecting a conservative topline growth of 20-25% from here onwards, I see company hitting 1000 crore revenues and close to 500 crore PAT (assuming same EBITDA is maintained) by 2026.
At current market cap, 2 year forward multiple comes to roughly 40 p/e, which is in line with historical multiples. But that would still be below industry average looking at current multiples of BSEs of the world. And any further rerating of the stock should create significant upside to the stock price.
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But the QoQ revenue is down. Not sure why…
Given the business model of MCX, one shouldn’t look at qoq numbers as top line will not always be linear quarter by quarter due to changes in market sentiments and volatility levels (in both equity and commodity) which in turn drive the volumes. Annual revenue growth is a better indicator of market participation which has been on a continuous uptrend.
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But if volume goes up QOQ, should the revenue not go up?
Revenue and margin per transaction that MCX derives from different products, in both commodity and equity segments, vary which may explain divergence between volume and realization.
Need to check once again - what i recollect of having seen is volume is higher in all segments
Quoting a news article “the volume of options has grown from ₹95,989 crore in Q3FY24 to ₹113,672 crore, while the amount of futures has decreased from ₹20,796 crore to ₹17,558 crore. As a result, operating revenue decreased slightly from ₹191 crore to ₹181 crore”
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Stock has smartly recovered 18% in three sessions from 8% cut on post earning date. Not sure if Morgan Stanley downgrade had anything to do with it. (They placed a target price of 2000.)
For some reason MS has been perpetually bearish on the stock having given three downgrades in last three years. Clearly stock has disappointed them so far 
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