If you are in Mumbai, try Big Basket for delivery. I have tried their one product Mango Sip. I found it ok but my kid loved it. Can’t make up my mind that the product is the differentiated.
I have been an investor in Manpasand and hence my views could be biased.
Firstly, you completely ignore the size of opportunity.
India’s beverage consumption ranks amongst the lowest in the world and in comparison to China, beverage consumption is at what it was in 1994 and even for Coca Cola’s sales in was at 12 units vs 92 units (global average) now if you account for the climatic variation, global warming, rising per capita etc. India has miles to go.
Now sitting in your air conditioned office, you cannot fathom the desperation to consume fluid when you travel in summers heat when temperatures touch 45-48 degrees. I’ve firsthand witnessed the compulsion and by the way did see Mango Sip on my road trip on a State bus from Sikar to Jaipur in Rajasthan.
Now based on 100 calls to retailers you question how can report so much topline! I would call yours as a curious case of floppy research! Manpansand sells through more than 2lac outlets and btw its a heavily seasonal product. And are you questioning the auditors or excise department or what? Be specific and say that the auditor is a fraud and file a police complaint! Why are you beating around the bush?
Now tell me why would Manpasand care what Parle reports?
Also, please realise this a asset heavy business, you need to buy land, set up plant and machinery etc., you need hard cash. Its first IPO was to repay debt and set up the Ambala plant. The Ambala plant has just started operations and has’nt even completed a quarter of sales and you are jumping to conclusions!
Now, it raised another Rs500cr through qip. So that money would take 12-18 to be deployed. What are you upset about? That they were able to convince long term investors such as Fidelity, SBI etc to raise equity to expand their brand and reach deeper corners of India? Looks like you are more upset about the taste or that you missed investing in the IPO!
Why do you think markets are so efficient that they lap up every salaried person who is available at a less than percieved salaries. So according to you people are like tradable commodities ready to swapped at the next available buyer!
Do me a favour get out in the market, take the train or a bus for a change and visit tier 2 towns in the summer season, it will open your eyes!
Finally, I would end with a quote from Warren Buffet-
“Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant"
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Your thoughts on the market opportunity and size are fair and reasonable. However I also think that the questions raised by members on this group are quite fair, given the amount of information available in the public domain.
Low salaries - People do value things other than money like work life balance, job satisfaction, future growth prospects etc. But if you are suggesting that people would work for 1/2, 1/3 rd or 1/5 th of the market salaries then you need a reality check. Get out in the real world and ask 10 people and you will get the answer. And people do have the right to question this.
Advertising in ET: If your target base is tier 2/3 cities and small towns then why advertise in ET? Fair question. Investors have the right to question inefficient use of funds.
Low asset turnover: Instead of berating members, would you care to explain this?
Again you are not being fair to other members. Just because some institutional investors have made investments in a company, that directly does not make it investment worthy.
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On asset turnover, one needs to compare it with a bottler not with a full fledged FMCG player. Many FMCG players outsource partly or fully while here they own everything.
Just because one has invested in a company shouldn’t mean that one is not open to reason logical arguments in a logical manner. I have invested in Manpasand in IPO and have exited now with decent gains and would not mind investing again at a later point in time if more clarity emerges about the sustainability of the business model.
Having burnt my fingers in many small and medium stocks over a period of time, my experience tells me never to fall in love for a stock so much that I start to defend it more than the promoters themselves. It always pays off to keep an open mind.
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I went to a SPAR hypermarket in Gurgaon yesterday. Could not find Manpasand beverages anywhere in the mega store. I thought maybe they had run out of stock. So I asked some store employees if Manpasand branded beverages like Mango Sip and Fruits Up were available. They had never heard about them.
This is highly discomforting. Agreed, companies tend to exaggerate in their press releases. I at least hoped I would see Manpasand beverges on the shelves. I was shocked when none of the store employees had heard about them.
Where can I buy these beverages in Delhi or Gurgaon?
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It is available(only Mango Sip) in Reliance Fresh(in chennai) with Buy 1 get 1 Free offer. But goes out of stock quickly.
I have tried Manpasand and gave to kids who Usually drink Frooty and Maza and they liked it. It was more cheaper than Frooty and Maza around 4-5 months back.
DISC: Not invested, single product company with no margin of safety
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The biggest game changer is not Mango SIP but Coco SIP and Buttermilk, that’s what all the FIIs are after and pouring money here.
And everyone here is still so tied up with Mango SIP vs Frooti. Coconut water can truly be a game changer here.
India, with a vast coastline of 7,517 km, is the third largest coconut producer in the world. While branded and packaged coconut water consumption in India is still at a nascent stage, it has a big market in developed countries. In the USA, coconut water drunk by consumers has shot up from less than 5 lakh litres in 2004 to around 200 million litres in 2014, according to a study.
In Brazil, packaged coconut water accounted for around 20% of its total juice market in 2003 and by 2010 it had grown to around 65%. An estimated 700 million litres of branded coconut water had been consumed worldwide in 2015, excluding unbranded coconut water consumed in India and globally.
Rudra, we need to also keep in mind that India’s long coastline and cheap labor means we can get fresh coconut in landlocked regions at almost same rates as in coastal region. Same is not true for US and Brazil. Besides Manpasand doesn’t manufacture coconut water on its own but outsource mostly from Jain Agro. Even the management themselves are not sure whether the opportunity can be big in India.
Lastly the company has set themselves huge targets of setting up 10 more plant in coming years which would require capex of around 1500 cr. If they are able to pull this off, then it can be good business to hold.
Disclaimer- No holdings. Never comfortable of paying such high valuations for any business.
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Thanks @Rokrdude for your replies. Good that we are now discussing the real thing!
Indeed the path is laden with challenges but that might become the opportunity here. The cost of transport is mere 80K for a truck load of coconut from South to North India Source: MOSL Research
Coco Sip- Virgin market with huge opportunity MANB in May 2016 launched its new product Coco Sip targeted for non-south markets. Coco Sip will be first of its kind natural coconut water without having any preservatives in it. The product will be available across SKUs size at affordable pricing starting INR 10 and will be manufactured through outsourcing model. Our channel checks suggest fresh coconut (water) in non-south markets are sold at INR 30-40 per coconut water and most of them are very small in size. It roughly costs around INR80k per truck to bring coconut water from south India to North India. Hence we believe there is a huge opportunity for MANB to launch natural coconut water at INR10 and grand the entire non-south market.
The initial product reviews are good. 4.3 out of 5 Stars Source
Now this is pretty evident that is simple stuff to sell packaged coconut water. Their hardly any entry barrier here, so what’s the main thing here ? To quote Mr Dhirendra Singh, Source
"I have a long way to go. This is a limitless market,”
GIven the sheer size of the opportunity, if Manpasand as a first mover can establish itself as a low cost challenger led by multiple smaller SKUs and higher asset turns, it would not be that lucrative for others to readily enter and take away market share in a hurry.
Of course they have quite an ambitious plan, like you mentioned. But given the past execution, we might hope for some good progression which might indeed make it a good business to hold.
Eager to know, how Packed water retains its freshness and does not become stale without use of any preservative? This is very important to know, considering inclination of people in long term to move away from any thing that is non-natural.
my two cents are as follows ( i have not done any reading on the company besides a cursory glance at the financials and read through all the posts here - so please take my opinions with seriousness commensurate with my reading)
seems to me that the only way available for its beverages to achieve stardom is for them to be the lowest price option available.
Low prices means less margins and its capital turns don’t look very promising as of now. so the math looks dismal going forward.
On coconut water - i love coconut water. I have tried several packaged versions of it from various companies over time and nothing comes close to the one mother nature makes. Also one of the big reasons people have coconut water is the “patli malai” which comes “free” along with it. You cant beat that combo! In my opinion competing against mother nature in a category she invented is not a very efficient use of capital.
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Agree
Does the business have Moat? - No
Does the business have unique business Model - No
All studies indicating increase in coconut water consumption are in countries with coastal lines- Yes
MOSL itself is invested in Manpasand as part of MOSL 25 - Yes
Only saving grace will be if they deliver on what they have promised by rapid expansion and we all know how that pans out
I was in Jodhpur and Jaisalmer recently. I expected Manpasand’s beverages to be on every shop in these 2 cities (could never find them in Gurgaon/Delhi). However all the shops were still dominated by Mazaa and other beverages.
Finally found 1 shop in Jaisalmer. Tried 3 drinks
- Mango Sip
- Fruits Up Litchi
- Fruits Up Mixed Fruit
Mango Sip was good and identical to Mazaa in its taste and packaging, could not make out the difference. Litchi was good. Mixed fruit was a bit too sweet, did not taste like drinking fruit juice. Felt like drinking flavoured sugar water.
Overall experience was good. However I did not find any other differentiating factor than the cost of the beverages. Also their USP of selling in Rs 5 or Rs 10 tetra packs - never observed this anywhere in Jaisalmer or Jodhpur. Can anyone else confirm their presence in shops/stores in other cities?
Its a very old thing which has been posted now . That was done to boycott MNC products to show support for jallikattu.
But I dont think people will really boycott these product for long
And scoopwhoop is a website whose most article starts with , 10 things to do ,…10 hings you will like about Gujjus.
So never ever rely on such websites
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Mango sip is available on big basket. I have seen it in Dmart stores too.
Saw Mango Sip Advt Board at a prime location at the signal outside Girgaon Chowpatty next to Kulfi Center in Mumbai. Looks like they’re spreading out of trains already.
