Manjushree is not a secular investment bet. It operates in a very very difficult industry. A look at the financials of main competition will illustrate the point much better - that Rudra and others have made out. Manjushree has scaled nicely and put a distance between itself and competition. It’s safe to say at the scale Manjushree operates now and its entrenched relationships with its major clients (who are helpful), it will be difficult for competition to catch up or any new competition to crop up and be of significant threat.
The other good part is - usually there isn’t a demand problem in this industry. Container demand mirrors the FMCG 13-15% kind of growths while PET preforms grow at the rate Coke and Pepsi grows which is usually 30% upwards. In recent years Coke and Pepsi have grown the fastest in India.
However current valuations - do not justify any excitement for me. There are better bets around.Having said that, there may come a time when you may get it cheaper ~5-6x.
That’s the time to ride this business. This is not a candidate for 5 year buy-n-hold as Rudra has brought out succinctly.