Tried to play with some numbers:
Current state: Before any allocation of shares to Bain Capital
Market Cap → Rs. 22450 Cr
Net worth → Rs. 12500 Cr (Consolidated as on Q1FY2026)
Market Price → Rs. 265 per share
Number of Shares → 84.65 Crores in total issued
So approx. 1.8 times Price to Book valuation, considering sorry state of profitability in Asirvad, Bain selected CEO already in place, change in Gold loan biz strategy, high NPAs in HFC, CV & PL books, and well known open offer price (for shared to be acquired by Bain Capital).
Future state: Post allocation of shares to Bain Capital (may be by March 2026)
Fresh Capital Infusion by Bain in Manappuram → Rs. 4400 Crores
Expected Additonal profit in Q2, Q3, & Q4 of FY2026 → Rs. 600 Crores (assuming consistent losses in MFI but with QOQ reduction)
Net Networth as on March 31, 2026 → Rs. 17,500 Crores. (i.e. 12500 as on Q1 + 4400 of bain + 600 of additonal profits)
Additonal Shares to Bain → 18.60 Crore shares
Net Shares as on March 31, 2026 → 103.25 Crore total outstanding
With Same Price to Book i.e. 1.8 Times → Market Cap ~ Rs. 31,500 Crores → Results in Market Price → Rs. 305 per share
With reduced Price to Book i.e. 1.5 Times → Market Cap ~ Rs. 26,250 Crores → Results in Market Price → Rs. 254 per share
With Improved Price to Book i.e. 2.0 Times → Market Cap ~ Rs. 35,000 Crores → Results in Market Price → Rs. 339 per share
Disclaimer: Above numbers are just for estimation purpose by an existing shareholder (hence 100% bias with expectation of better returns), if things goes well or worse, what could be the implications.
Side Note: In Major Gold loan NBFC players P/B of Muthoot ~ 3+, of IIFL Finance ~ 1.5; In diversified NBFCs P/B of Chola 5+, Shriram 2+, ABC 2+, Sundram 4+, L&T 2+, Poonawala 4+, JM Financials 1.75+, Edelweiss 2+.
Source of Data → Screener, Company Annual Report, Quarterly results presentation and Corporate announcement on Bain Capital transaction.