HM is a compounded @ 18% including dividend between 2007-2017. Only past 2 yrs, it has underperformed both due to lesser growth and PE contraction. May be Majestic Auto was paying lesser interest rate for loans that HM’s CAGR.
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good point , i didnt think from the hero moto cagr growth angle.
you are right about majestic auto(majesco is a seperate company no connection)
paying lower interest than hero growth rate
they have taken term loans from hdfc bank by pledging hero moto shares. the rate of interest
ranges from 7.85 to 10.65 %
Disclaimer : i am invested ,my opinions might be biased
while googling came across another new corporate property called Majestic signia
This building was completed recently in 2019.
1.75 LAC square feet area
No mention of this in the last year’s annual
report.
I DON’T KNOW WHETHER THIS IS OWNED BY THE LISTED MAJESTIC AUTO OR IS A PROMOTER OWNED PROPERTY.
it’s in the same sector Noida sector 62 as knowledge boulevard .
link for info
Disclaimer : i am invested ,my opinions might be biased
It would be interesting to have a pure microcap portfolio of 20 stocks with the following characteristics
- Marketcap below 500 crore
- only 5 % allocation to a stock
- stocks with 70% and above promoter holding
- Net debt zero , no fccb either
- No Pledging
- 10 years listed history
- we may or may not add a dividend yield criteria
- paying taxes at more or less the prevalent rate.
I have been coming across some companies with characteristics like these . will post more after detailed research.
Even if a few stocks hit the jackpot it would be fantastic.
3 Likes
Results are gonna come on 29th this month.
if I have missed any filter in the above post do let me know.
two wheeler companies are expected to do well in the coming months because people will prefer them over public transport
there is a good chance the value of Majestic auto holding in hero motocorp will increase from the present 221 crores. (assuming no shares have been sold during the March quarter).
disclosure: have sold almost 8% of my holding in majestic auto and taken initial positions in muthoot finance.
disclaimer : I am invested in majestic auto, my opinions may be biased
results are out . they are not comparable directly with last year because of land sale component last year.
consolidated revenue for the year is 79.14 crore.
consolidated pbt for the year is 23.63 crores. but due to reasons beyond my current understanding income tax expense is 44.53 crore . which results in an annual loss of 20.9 crores.
in the other comprehensive income section there are some more items which show a bigger loss which i am yet to understand.(these items are classified as not part of pnl statement)
Net cash flow from operating activities is 40.1 crores
long term borrowings have reduced from 207 crores to 173 crores resulting in debt reduction of 34 crores. no sizable short term debt.
it seems company has not sold any hero motocorp shares.
the reduction in investment value to 147 crores from 235 crores is because as on march 31st hero moto price was 1596.
now price is 2504 which results in a holding value of 230 crores of hero moto shares which majestic auto has.
the results have various aspects like the tax thing which i dont understand , i will get greater clarity once the latest annual report is released.majestic auto.pdf (1.8 MB)
it would be swell if other boarders shed light on the results as well especially the tax and the other comprehensive income part.
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This property, Majestic knowledge boulvevard located at sector 62 in Noida city was acquired for 73.2 crore in 2015 but is generating a revenue of 40 Cr and PBT of 25 Cr.
Assuming 10% rental yield,
Asset Value = Revenue / rental yield = 40/0.1 = 400 Cr in 2019.
Why asset was sold for 73 Cr when real value was 250 Cr in 2015 adjusting for appreciation in asset price ?
Am i missing something ?
i havent been able to get any info about the terms and conditions of their purchase of emirates tech pvt ltd which owns knowledge boulvevard.
the purchase price does seem low.
old interview link
other unknowns
-
the 43.2 crore tax expense year ended march 2020. no idea where this huge tax epense came from. there is no deferred tax liability in last years consolidated balance sheet.
there is a deferrred tax asset os 21.3 crore and other non current tax assets of 7.16 crore this year
here is a deferred tax liability of 30.2 crore this year which was nil last year
the only good thing is the business is definitely legit because of all these taxes paid. -
in the other comprehensive income section , items not classsified to p&l statement is another -88.35 crores(negative 88.35 crores).
its definitely connected with the closing down of the automotive division.
page 104 of previous year annual report shows unused tax losses and depreciation for which no deferred tax asset is recognised
this amount over the next decade is 210 crore
this year results
THE PDF IN MY PREVIOUS POST IS THE LATEST RESULT.
because of these unknowns we are getting the stock so cheap.
market cap of 90 crore with debt of around 170 crores which is consistently declining year by year having rental income of 35 crores approx but holding hero moto shares of rs 253 crore(its not a holding company),gets dividend too of a few crores from hero and commercial property (IT BUILDING ) worth conservatively atleast 300 crore.
DISCLOSURE i have sold 12.5 % of my majestic auto holding and shifted it to muthoot finance.
i am invested in majestic auto . my opinions may be biased. i am not a sebi registered investment advisor. this is not investment advice
2 wheelers stocks should do very well in the forseeable future due to need for social distancing which is virtually impossible in public transport.
there is a good chance of hero motocorp getting rerated which will benefit majestic auto .
In my opinion majestic auto mgmt will seek to ride this out and will definitely pare down down a significant portion of its debt by selling off some of hero moto holding (due to all the economic shocks witnessed )
. current value of its holding of hero moto cmp of 2663 is 245 crores.
What i am guessing is the massive income tax paid this year is to do with the land sale . i will post more details once the annual report is released.
Since they have Big IT clients(tech mahindra for eg ) in their rented out property , corona impact should be minimial .Moreover IT companies are doing great .
Disclosure :
i am invested in majestic auto . my opinions may be biased. i am not a sebi registered investment advisor. this is not investment advice .Please do your due diligence before investing
The valuation is as follows :
- Hero moto corp = 177 Cr (30% of asset weightage)
- Emirates Tech = 0.8*36.25 Cr / 12% rental yield = 242 Cr (41% of asset weightage)
- Land = 4.1 times book valued amount as per previous land sale deal
= 4.1*50.07 Cr = 205 Cr
= 164 Cr (20% discount) (29% of asset weightage) - Liability = 253 Cr
NAV (Cr) =330 Cr
Value / share = Rs 317
I am not considering facility management business as its profit comes from the expense of Emirates Tech. Hence only Emirates is valued.
Do you agree with this valuation which requires further discount based on expected profit sharing by management with minority shareholders?
2 Likes
it will be great if you can provide an elaborate explanation for each point
for example how is the liability 253 crore
Good find! @centrist I am interested, but the points which I find troubling are:
- why does the company report losses and not pay dividend?
- company has some business of its own, which can face a downturn due to covid and WFH situation.
- though this thread has done a very good job of digging into this, some points remain unclear.
- i do not find hero motocorp a good or even decent growth share
- holding company discount is estimated to be 70% or more in India, this one has a 90% discount because of points such as these.
Most likely several of the 100s of vaccines are going to work fine and people will not like to buy a 2 -wheeler other than 2-3 quarters in future (consider in context of depressed incomes in this time-frame), also given Indian weather, fuel prices, and traffic.
Disc: not invested.
Majestic Auto valuation.xlsx (13.2 KB)
The attachment is a conservative valuation.
Good will of 40 Cr, loans, other financial assets of 9 Cr are not considered as assets.
All liabilities are considered.
Since parent company that runs facility management business derives its profit from subsidiary, Emirates, if we consider both valuation, it becomes double accounting. Hence only Emirates is valued based on rental yield method.
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- losses are due to a large income tax component this year which i think is connected to the land sale . i dont have clarity on the the income tax component yet
consolidated pbt this year is 23.63 crores
Net Cash Flow is 40.1 crores this year
the other losses which are not part of p&l statement are connected with closing down of auto component division
No dividends because company has been using cash to pare down debt.
Even though a small dividend will go a long way towards establishing credibility for the stock.
-
yes the property rental business is just like nesco(on a smaller scale) but i feel should have minimial covid impact due to the presence of tech mahindra as its tenant.
i dont think tech m will quit the building because of covid .
https://bps.techmahindra.com/locator/asia-pacific/
building info available in the link -
thanks
-
hero moto used to be a market darling a decade ago and might bounce bank in the future.
-
i think this is the main reason the stock is so undervalued , mr/ms market thinks majestic auto is a holding company of hero moto
evidence points to the contrary
in 2015 majestic auto had 10.3 lac of hero moto shares
in 2016 majestic auto had 10 lac hero moto shares
in 2020 majestic auto has 9.21 lac hero moto shares.
Clearly majestic auto has been selling its holding in hero moto and theres a good chance based on past evidence that it will sell further once it gets a comfortable valuation for hero moto shares.
i think this holding company discount deserves to vanish because majestic auto is not a holding company of hero moto.
- two wheelers not rebounding is a possibility for sure.
Disclosure :
i am invested in majestic auto . my opinions may be biased. i am not a sebi registered investment advisor. this is not investment advice .Please do your due diligence before investing
i dont think market is considering it as a holding company as it forms only 30% of assets. Its main asset is land and buildings which form 70%.
There are 2 issues with the company
- Capital allocation- company to be made debt-free. There were lot of oppurtunities in 2015-2018(once Honda got isolated, Hero moto becomes mediocre) to sell Hero Motocorp shares and become totally debt-free but was not done.
- Even bigger issue is no dividend at all. This raises questions about management integrity.
Is there any observations about management ? Will they share the gains with minority shareholders ?
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i agree , once honda seperated , hero moto hasnt got back its mojo yet.
Yes being totally debt free by selling its hero holding would have been superb. -
no dividend i can understand because company has been reducing debt from 329 crores in 2016 to 170 crores in 2020.
will they share gains with minority shareholders is something i havent figured out yet.
but yes due to 75% shareholding and no pledging promotors will gain the most if the stock is rerated
Disclosure :
i am invested in majestic auto . my opinions may be biased. i am not a sebi registered investment advisor. this is not investment advice .Please do your due diligence before investing
I did not find such data in AR-2019. Pls let me know where this data is available.
If promoter has lend at 10%, then 3.73 L for 6 months leads to 7.46 L p.a. Hence loan principal should be 75 Cr. No such borrowing is reported. If this is true that they have promoter have lend 75 Cr, its a huge negative.
i found all borrowings from major banks.(207 Cr from HDFC bank and 8 Cr from PNBHFL). These interest rates are quite high @ 8.65-10.65%. Post-COVID rates should be utilized to switch loans.
heres the data majauto.pdf (235.6 KB)
it was in a related party disclosure to bse on 5.12.19
https://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/majestic-auto-ltd/majesaut/500267/corp-announements/
the interest paid is in lacs not crores
its 3.73 lacs for 6 months
Yes, sorry, I did not pay attention to the clearly formatted post of @sambandham82.
Majority asset is land and buildings, so yes it is more a real-estate play like NESCO somewhat.
You guys also have the reasons for valuation figured out perfectly, root-question is with 75% holdings with promoters, will they share with minority?