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They pay over 100Cr in rental, that easily well over 1000 units. My understanding is they keep 25 to 30% capacity on lease/rental
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point was different, how much help 3Lakh member can provide bringing new members? I see no material change compared to when they had 1Lakh or 2 Lakh members
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I do not want anyone to break too much of their head.
My understanding is that ASF does not cover all operational and maintenance cost. You need bit extra on top of ASF to maintain resorts and also spend for water, electricity, diesel, changing towels etc, also pay employees. If simple calculation dis-approve it, good enough.
So, net net you are left with Cash + Receivable (assuming it will be converted into cash) + Resorts (after service period of existing customers is over) that you own as owner.
yes, so what value you will give to it today? discounted at what rate? 8, 12or 14% or higher? Property price may not increase in line with equity return expectations. So you need to buy property cheap or earn 5-7% yield now. Also, after 25 years you may need major refurbishment in your property!
- I did that exercise in 2013-14
CM analysis copy.xlsx (38.4 KB)
Never did it again. As this stock will unlikely bring you above market return.(My opinion, I may get wrong). Even these post I am replying as return back to community. I intend to not spend any time on analysis. For me simple matrix is now per room (in service) market cap and watch on marketing expenses and operating leverage which may kick-in in 2027 when 25 year membership will start expiring. How many as compared to current enrollment rate? Even in previous years Zest (10-year product) membership have expired.
I myself have owned this membership, have analyzed this company at the time of IPO. Have closely watched mgmt interviews for years after IPO. I waited 10 years to buy it in 2019, but sold quickly near Covid melt down, thinking that sector will take long time to recover. Bought again last year, temptation of momentum gain, (ignoring my earlier valuation thesis), paid for my mistake. Now I have tracking position only.