Thanks for Sharing the insight. Jyothi CNC has applied for an IPO. Its product seems to be good and has 5 5-axis CNC machine. Is there any input from MacPower to enhance its portfolio? Also is there a data on how Indian customers prefer Indian CNC machines against Mazada(Japanese ones).
https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/MACPOWER_29012024133306_InvestorPresentationforQ3FY24.pdf
The company continues to display good results. What makes me optimistic is the company’s focus on premiumisation and debt-free status
What struck me most from their concall is Mr. Rupesh Mehta comes across as a no nonsense-no frills-straight to the point type of a personality. None of the fancy English jargons/PPT’s, just your regular next door ‘dhandhawala’.
He repeatedly emphasized, that order book is never a concern for the machine tool industry but the major challenges were skilled manpower, supply chain (component sub-vendors) and evolving technology (R&D).
The company does seem like they’ve been walking the talk, delivering good no’s and as the previous poster says Q4 is going to be a good quarter (Rupesh ji says typically the split is Q1-20%, Q2 & Q3 - 25% each, Q4 - 30%)
One thing I’m a bit cautious about is on the PSU orders. Macpower’s win rate has seen an increase ever since the introduction of the Reverse Auction mandate. Rupeshji brushed aside any margin pressures citing lowest direct costs in the industry. He also briefly touched upon how PSU clients have a stringent quality/inspection requirements (more cost) unlike private ones.
All that said, there’s every reason to feel bullish on the company. Still trying to figure out if all the Q4 numbers is already baked in the price. Would appreciate any inputs on how one would gauge it.
D : Not invested but tracking ![]()
Agreed on the promoter/MD. In such small caps, it is often the bet on the promoter. There seems to sufficient demand for multiple players to grow at least for the next few years.
One thing to watch for - They have been selling mostly lower end machines till now, which I assmue majority is to SME clients. This is allowing them to demand advance and manage WC very efficiently. With government/defense clients and larget private clients (as they move up the value chain), I think the WC will be impacted. Also they may nee debt for expansion. Need to keep a close eye on balance sheet, which is in very good shape today.
Going by the number of analyst meeting they are doing, looks like there is a wider interest as well.
Another point to be aware of is that this scrip lacks liquidity. One may need patience to buy as well to sell.
I have taken an approach of staggered buying - bought some before Q3 results, after confirming the business performance and outlook in Q3 added some more. After Q4, I plan to add another 25% to the position to reach the target allocation.
disc - invested from lower levels
Have been tracking the company since a while now.
Having interacted with Rupeshbhai during Q2 con-call as well as in-person meeting, the impression surely is a clean competent promoter.
Macpower seems to be doing all the right things, the industry has strong demand due to Manufacturing and added booster from Government/ Defence orders now.
All said, I’m surely concerned about Valuations.
Looks like it’s pricing in not just the next quarter/s but much longer & faster growth.
Another major concern is the industry does have down cycle
In 2019-20, the whole industry went through one & all major players suffered
with Sales down as much as 40-50%
So the Opportunities & Risks need to be looked in a balanced view.
Usual disclaimers apply!
Can you please elaborate on the down cycle?
As per the concall, Rupeshbhai did mention, there doesnt seem to be any lack of orders anytime soon, but concern is more on supply of skilled workers.
What may lead to a down cycle? , given the huge capex cycle in Make In India.
There is definitely a visibility of 2 years atleast.
I understand the orderbook/ India’s macro’s are very strong right now.
And the concern is not just supply of skilled workers, but also components.
One should investigate what happened in 2019-20
Make in India initiative was started long back.
Macpower Cnc: Notes from Arihant conference
Margin levers: - Backward Integration (largest driver of margins)
Services → high valued machines + defence machines have a sizeable service component as well
Operating Costs → co to aim to reduce operating costs to 15% from current 17%+ (revolutionary in Indian mfg)
As avg realization continues to improve from 20lacs, over the next 5 years co aims to touch 25% margins!
Expansion: - Starting May, co will be on track to utilize 2000 machine capacity for production - also with additional debottlenecking co will be able to manufacture upto 2200 machines
Over the next 5 years company plans to increase capacity by 2000 machines every year to reach 10000 machines capacity in 5 years (from 1500 in FY24)
Capex: - 10cr to take current capacity of 1500 to 2000.
100cr for 2000 machines in the new set up (reach 4k machines capacity) - 15cr additional capex every year to add 2000 machines every year (depends on demand as well).
Other Highlights: - no new player in the last decade, present 6-7 players will continue to compete - Due to govt focus to take manufacturing to 25% of GDP from current 17% loans have become easy, subsidized with interest rate waivers and tax waivers → this is leading to import substitution
Very conservative management.
Hi everyone,
I wanted to share my thoughts on MACPOWER CNC at its current valuation. Recently, on July 26th, 2024, I had the privilege of visiting their plant as an individual investor. I was incredibly impressed by Mr. Rupesh Bhai Mehta, who is a true champion and held leadership positions in many group including being at the helm of Indian machine tools manufactures association as a director over a decade. I guess that helps build vision.
1 Order Book: On page 5 of the last quarter’s investor presentation, you’ll see that the order book (₹262 crores) is already higher than the revenue from the last fiscal year (₹240 crores). For further updates on the “RATE of increase in order book,” I highly recommend listening to the FY24 Q4 concall – some special mentions there.
2 Future Machines Order: The number of future machine orders is already 44% higher than last year.
3 Expansion: Against selling 1,235 machines last year, the expansion to 2,000 machines is already in place and could go up to 2,200 machines after resolving bottlenecks – that’s a 60% growth. ( Part of investor presentation. )
4 Demand: Demand is abnormally high ( con-call and my visit + industry touch points ) , and the company is selective about the businesses they onboard. They are keen on defence and aerospace projects due to higher margins and future triggers mentioned below. Clearly a sellers Market.
5 Land Acquisition: The company is about to be awarded a 35-acre land at a token rate, which is 1/2 of the Jantri rate (current circle rate is about ₹25 lakhs), making the land worth around ₹4 crores.
6 Future Projects: The percentage of future defence and high-value projects is increasing rapidly.
7 Debt-Free: The company is debt-free and management is averse to taking loans.
8 Dividend: Management hasn’t taken a dividend for the last two periods. Highest salary received by Mr. Rupesh bhai Mehta at 3 lacs per month only. Says a lot about the culture.
9 Cost Efficiency: MACPOWER is the lowest-cost manufacturer in India, benefiting from operating leverage and EBITDA expansion as scale increases.
10. FCF of 50 crores.
11. Backward integration in process to increase margins and reduce dependency on outside vendors.
Future fundamental Triggers:
1 GST Refund: Under the Gujarat defence and aerospace policy 2016, 8% of GST will be refunded to the company in the new plant ( 1.5 years away ).
2 Defence and Aerospace Projects: 50% of projects will be in defence and aerospace, which are higher-margin products. 50% can be anything else. This clause is valid for first 5 years only.
3 R&D Incentives: The government will return back 200% of the company’s R&D expenditure for their Rajkot and Bangalore research centers.
4 Capex: The new project’s capex cost could be around ₹60 crores, potentially financed through internal accruals if capex is executed in phases, as the company’s FCF is around ₹50 crores and possibly over ₹100 crores by year-end.
5 Expansion Plan: If high demand continues, the company may do a QIP to announce a massive expansion at the new facility and do a one time capex instead.
6 Multinational Tie-Up: A potential tie-up with a multinational company for CDMO is expected by the end of this financial year, which could or i should say may elevate MACPOWER from small cap to midcap to large-cap status over long periods of time. ( Network effects - specially export will then become a deep moat + technological advancement in a precision industry business )
7 Electricity Subsidy: The new plant will benefit from serious subsidies on electricity costs. Currently they have reduced 80% of their industrial electricity bills by installing solar panels.
8 Company definitely in a sellers Market.
Base Case Scenario:
In my humble opinion to see a 50% increase in revenues from last year, taking revenues to ₹360 crores with EBITDA margins of 17%, resulting in a PAT of around ₹45 crores and forward valuations close to a PE of 31 types.
Anything above a PAT of 50 Crores i would consider a Bull Case scenario.
Potential Risks:
1 Market Fluctuations: Economic downturns or market volatility could impact the demand for CNC machines. Highly unlikely though in current market conditions.
2 Regulatory Changes: Changes in government policies or regulations, especially those related to defence and aerospace sectors, could affect the company’s operations and profitability.
3 Execution Risks: Delays or issues in executing the expansion plans and bottleneck resolutions could impact growth projections.
4 Technological Advancements: Rapid advancements in technology could render current products obsolete if the company fails to keep up with innovation. Specially for new machines being announced in IMPEX Banglore event 2025 for EMS and other precision engineering sectors etc.
5 Dependency on Key Personnel: The company’s performance is significantly influenced by key personnel like in most small cap companies, and any change in leadership could impact strategic direction and execution.
Exit Strategy -
The sector has tailwinds, and the business has the strength to sustain multiple years of growth. I prefer to wait until either the EPS peaks or the valuation becomes unsustainable before considering an exit or due to cause of delayed or poor execution that would hamper growth at higher valuations.
My multi-bagger Learning’s from the reading the book named the little book the creates wealth by Dorsey in the same week and its application to my visit :
1 Look for “ rate of change “ of revenue/operating leverage/deleveraging etc etc. Rate of change often matters.
2 Having a sound management is good but good management, good execution, great product and good team is NOT a long term moat.
3 4 sources of structural Moats are network effects ( An international tie up to use their existing network for CDMO ), cost advantages ( exists in MACPOWER cnc ) and will get better with scale, Intangible assets ( Not applicable ) and customer switching ( N.A. ), A Better location ( The new plant around 35 acres that may be announced soon and its benefits mentioned above )
4 Supple side dominance with 7-9 companies owning up to 90% of indian market share. Focus on Fish to Pond ratio and not on the absolute size of the fish. A big fish in a small pond is better than a big fish in a big pond.
5 Champion capital allocator - Debt free, debt averse, pays dividend ( but refuses to take dividend for himself - refused a crore twice in the past )
6 Broadly - Moats are more absolute in nature than relative. An example of this is that the fourth best company in a structurally attractive industry may very well have a wider and deeper Moat than the best company in a brutally competitive industry.
Second order consequences and self talk :
1 To see if my company has economic moat first see its past track record of generating returns on capital. Possibly, a strong ROC over long enough periods of time may reflect a company may have a moat and poor returns may reflect ordinary execution on ground. Watch execution like a hawk.
2 If the answer to the above question is yes, ask yourself how the company will maintain them. If over long periods of time you can’t identify specific reason/s why the ROC will stay strong the company likely does not have a Moat. Keep questioning yourself.
3 If you can identify a moat, think about how strong it is and how long it will last. Some moats last for decades others are less durable.
Why are the above points important to me ?
1 My companies value is of all the cash it will generate in the future. That’s it !
2 4 most important factor that effect the valuation of my company is how much cash it will generate in the further ( rate of change of growth ), the certainty attached to those estimated cash flows ( risks ), The amount of investment needed to run the business ( ROC ) and the length of time for which the company can keep competitors at bay ( competing advantage /economic moat )
I urge everyone to study the con-call,and put independent work to build independent conviction. I currently hold a 1% stake in this business. I am certainly biased and this is just for educational purposes as i am here to share my learning’s with the community and learn to from the community too.
Always beware of which ‘E’to use when calculation of P/E only because forecasts don’t always come true. The best ‘E’ to use is your own; be cautious or reserved of possible future ‘E’ it’s your own hard earned money, build MoS. Be responsible.
Hope this added value and help in your own journey.
Some helpful links :
- https://cdn.vibrantgujarat.com/public/1707742816561-Establishment-of-Machine-Tool-Manufacturing-Unit.pdf
- https://www.vibrantgujarat.com/
- Q2FY24, Q3FY24 and Q4FY24 con calls spill the beans
Hi everyone,
I wanted to share my thoughts on MACPOWER CNC at its current valuation. Recently, on July 26th, 2024, I had the privilege of visiting their plant as an individual investor. I was incredibly impressed by Mr. Rupesh Bhai Mehta, who is a true champion and held leadership positions in many group including being at the helm of Indian machine tools manufactures association as a director over a decade. I guess that helps build vision.
1 Order Book: On page 5 of the last quarter’s investor presentation, you’ll see that the order book (₹262 crores) is already higher than the revenue from the last fiscal year (₹240 crores). For further updates on the “RATE of increase in order book,” I highly recommend listening to the FY24 Q4 concall – some special mentions there.
2 Future Machines Order: The number of future machine orders is already 44% higher than last year.
3 Expansion: Against selling 1,235 machines last year, the expansion to 2,000 machines is already in place and could go up to 2,200 machines after resolving bottlenecks – that’s a 60% growth. ( Part of investor presentation. )
4 Demand: Demand is abnormally high ( con-call and my visit + industry touch points ) , and the company is selective about the businesses they onboard. They are keen on defence and aerospace projects due to higher margins and future triggers mentioned below. Clearly a sellers Market.
5 Land Acquisition: The company is about to be awarded a 35-acre land at a token rate, which is 1/2 of the Jantri rate (current circle rate is about ₹25 lakhs), making the land worth around ₹4 crores.
6 Future Projects: The percentage of future defence and high-value projects is increasing rapidly.
7 Debt-Free: The company is debt-free and management is averse to taking loans.
8 Dividend: Management hasn’t taken a dividend for the last two periods. Highest salary received by Mr. Rupesh bhai Mehta at 3 lacs per month only. Says a lot about the culture.
9 Cost Efficiency: MACPOWER is the lowest-cost manufacturer in India, benefiting from operating leverage and EBITDA expansion as scale increases.
10. FCF of 50 crores.
11. Backward integration in process to increase margins and reduce dependency on outside vendors.
Future fundamental Triggers:
1 GST Refund: Under the Gujarat defence and aerospace policy 2016, 8% of GST will be refunded to the company in the new plant ( 1.5 years away ).
2 Defence and Aerospace Projects: 50% of projects will be in defence and aerospace, which are higher-margin products. 50% can be anything else. This clause is valid for first 5 years only.
3 R&D Incentives: The government will return back 200% of the company’s R&D expenditure for their Rajkot and Bangalore research centers.
4 Capex: The new project’s capex cost could be around ₹60 crores, potentially financed through internal accruals if capex is executed in phases, as the company’s FCF is around ₹50 crores and possibly over ₹100 crores by year-end.
5 Expansion Plan: If high demand continues, the company may do a QIP to announce a massive expansion at the new facility and do a one time capex instead.
6 Multinational Tie-Up: A potential tie-up with a multinational company for CDMO is expected by the end of this financial year, which could or i should say may elevate MACPOWER from small cap to midcap to large-cap status over long periods of time. ( Network effects - specially export will then become a deep moat + technological advancement in a precision industry business )
7 Electricity Subsidy: The new plant will benefit from serious subsidies on electricity costs. Currently they have reduced 80% of their industrial electricity bills by installing solar panels.
8 Company definitely in a sellers Market.
Base Case Scenario:
In my humble opinion to see a 50% increase in revenues from last year, taking revenues to ₹360 crores with EBITDA margins of 17%, resulting in a PAT of around ₹45 crores and forward valuations close to a PE of 31 types.
Anything above a PAT of 50 Crores i would consider a Bull Case scenario.
Potential Risks:
1 Market Fluctuations: Economic downturns or market volatility could impact the demand for CNC machines. Highly unlikely though in current market conditions.
2 Regulatory Changes: Changes in government policies or regulations, especially those related to defence and aerospace sectors, could affect the company’s operations and profitability.
3 Execution Risks: Delays or issues in executing the expansion plans and bottleneck resolutions could impact growth projections.
4 Technological Advancements: Rapid advancements in technology could render current products obsolete if the company fails to keep up with innovation. Specially for new machines being announced in IMPEX Banglore event 2025 for EMS and other precision engineering sectors etc.
5 Dependency on Key Personnel: The company’s performance is significantly influenced by key personnel like in most small cap companies, and any change in leadership could impact strategic direction and execution.
Exit Strategy -
The sector has tailwinds, and the business has the strength to sustain multiple years of growth. I prefer to wait until either the EPS peaks or the valuation becomes unsustainable before considering an exit or due to cause of delayed or poor execution that would hamper growth at higher valuations.
My multi-bagger Learning’s from the reading the book named the little book the creates wealth by Dorsey in the same week and its application to my visit :
1 Look for “ rate of change “ of revenue/operating leverage/deleveraging etc etc. Rate of change often matters.
2 Having a sound management is good but good management, good execution, great product and good team is NOT a long term moat.
3 4 sources of structural Moats are network effects ( An international tie up to use their existing network for CDMO ), cost advantages ( exists in MACPOWER cnc ) and will get better with scale, Intangible assets ( Not applicable ) and customer switching ( N.A. ), A Better location ( The new plant around 35 acres that may be announced soon and its benefits mentioned above )
4 Supple side dominance with 7-9 companies owning up to 90% of indian market share. Focus on Fish to Pond ratio and not on the absolute size of the fish. A big fish in a small pond is better than a big fish in a big pond.
5 Champion capital allocator - Debt free, debt averse, pays dividend ( but refuses to take dividend for himself - refused a crore twice in the past )
6 Broadly - Moats are more absolute in nature than relative. An example of this is that the fourth best company in a structurally attractive industry may very well have a wider and deeper Moat than the best company in a brutally competitive industry.
Second order consequences and self talk :
1 To see if my company has economic moat first see its past track record of generating returns on capital. Possibly, a strong ROC over long enough periods of time may reflect a company may have a moat and poor returns may reflect ordinary execution on ground. Watch execution like a hawk.
2 If the answer to the above question is yes, ask yourself how the company will maintain them. If over long periods of time you can’t identify specific reason/s why the ROC will stay strong the company likely does not have a Moat. Keep questioning yourself.
3 If you can identify a moat, think about how strong it is and how long it will last. Some moats last for decades others are less durable.
Why are the above points important to me ?
1 My companies value is of all the cash it will generate in the future. That’s it !
2 4 most important factor that effect the valuation of my company is how much cash it will generate in the further ( rate of change of growth ), the certainty attached to those estimated cash flows ( risks ), The amount of investment needed to run the business ( ROC ) and the length of time for which the company can keep competitors at bay ( competing advantage /economic moat )
I urge everyone to study the con-call,and put independent work to build independent conviction. I currently hold a 1% stake in this business. I am certainly biased and this is just for educational purposes as i am here to share my learning’s with the community and learn to from the community too.
Always beware of which ‘E’to use when calculation of P/E only because forecasts don’t always come true. The best ‘E’ to use is your own; be cautious or reserved of possible future ‘E’ it’s your own hard earned money, build MoS. Be responsible.
Hope this added value and help in your own journey.
Some helpful links :
-
Q2FY24, Q3FY24 and Q4FY24 con calls spill the beans
Great Results for Q1 which is intrinsically weak for Capital goods.
Have to take into account that elections also happened in the this quarter.
I am looking at this another way. When we had a capacity of 1500 machines at the starting of the year we sold 1284 machines by the end of the year ( approx 85% utilisation ). Now we have a capacity of about 2000 machines and a conservative environment having tailwinds 85% of utilisation comes to 1700 machines. Since NEXA product is already 27% of the order book which was in single digits last year and the new orders are of defence and aerospace as tendering process as picked up pace expecting a average realisation of 22 lakhs is reasonable taking my estimates of Revenue to a minimum of 375 crore at a 17% margin a PAT of 48 is possible. A possible doubler of PAT for a second consecutive year may command a 100 PE in a bull case taking market Cap to 5K at the time of announcement of the new facility in which the business can further inch up the operating margins to 25%+ due to the government policies applicable in the new facility helping swell the PAT to higher % levels of revenue.
Having said that, “ what i see is all there is “, and i do seem to realise how little information we have as investors creating a HALO effect and jumping to conclusions activated by system 1 ( book reference - Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman )
Post reading the above, even my post may infuse confirmatory bias to your independent judgement in a bull market. Most of us do not want more information that may spoil our story - the human design. Best for facts to emerge and watch the story unfold and learn from it both ways.
As far as i am concerned, i will only and only reassess my investment after we start production in the new facility which is 1.5 to 2 years away. My objective of such a choice is to allow the business head of a supply side dominant sector to do business in a location based moat environment with tailwinds in precision manufacturing sector and asses from there the execution of capital allocation, the ROCE associated with it and **most significantly the intervention and will of the management to get superior technology behind the product as soon as possible ( No compromise on the quality of technology which is currently unavailable in india ) **.
Good luck investors, concall tomorrow at 3 PM.
Q1FY25 concall highlights:
concall link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy8O6_8EBHE
- 80-90% electricity bill from solar
- 1st Aug Blr R&D start: will focus on new age tech like ems, pcb n semi conductor
- Discussing JV with foreign companies (japanese) for technical know how
- 20-25% guidance
- Ebidta margin will increase in future
- avg realization 25L by EOY
- gross margin increased coz of backward compatibility
- Defence machine high value & high margin
- Took land in Coimbatore & Chennai
- Order Book are not one time basis
- 2 days back, 35 new sales people appointed
- in Q3 we will start export, there is oppurtunity in Russia
- Japanese JV partner wont prefer export to Russia
- Aerospace supply to HAL
- coming 6 yrs, capex will increase 20-25% yoy
- political scenario wont impact much in this industry
- we have training center for skill development in manufacturing part, we need 3 months
- JV vision is for tech transfer, worldwide distribution network benefit
- FY25-26 we can add another 500 machine with capex of 10-15 Cr
- Our fixed cost is only 20%, we can reduce cost if there is issue in industry
- Threat is new tech adaptibility
- 5 axis machine launch in Jan Blr exhibition, the realization for this will be in FY26
- Entry level machine importing was not successful as price is 2x than India
- JV is unrelated to the expansion happening
- We are not relying on JV to move forward, BLR R&D is for that, JV will give a boost
I have just recently started tracking CNC manufacturer companies, reason being simple manufacturing industry future growth expectations. Macpower being on top list followed by jyoti cnc, and lokesh machines. Do share some insights of peer companies growth prospect over macpower(if anyone is tracking).
GDP contribution from manufacturing expected to grow from 17 to 25%.
Personal thoughts= Atma nirbhar bharat (Made In India) is long way to goo, Final product to tab milega jab shurat hi usko banana wali machines karegi.
Some insights from the Q1 Con-call.
- In answering the first question Mr. Rupesh Bhai Mehta said the average realisation will increase to 25 lakhs at the end of the year.
I hear = 22 lakhs per machine x 1605 machines ( 80% utilization ) = 353 crs of revenue
- In answering the second question Mr. Rupesh Bhai Mehta said margin can improve to 27%
I hear 19% Op margins for the entire year = 67 cr
Other income 1 and depreciation as 6 take my PBT to = 62 cr
And PAT to = 46.5 ie. Another doubler of PAT for 2 connective years without diluting equity and without taking debt = High ROCE/ROE
- FY 25 = 24 lakhs per machine x 2300 machines ( 85% capacity utilisation ) = 552 cr
With 24% operating margins = 132 cr
Other income 2 and depreciation 8 take my PBT to = 123
PAT for FY 25 = 92 cr = another possible doubler in FY 25 before the new plant comes up for 2000 machines and doubles the PAT again for the following year but with newer tech available from the new Japanese JV partner and exports markets get accessed through their network.
Reminder, 8% GST return and 200% of research expenses return in the new facility will flow straight to PAT and increasing PAT Margins closer to 20%+. Lately Unheard in the manufacturing space.
Long-Term Vision: I plan to reassess my investment only after the new facility starts production in two years. This decision is grounded in confidence in the company’s strong capital allocation strategy within a supply-side dominant sector. The focus will be on assessing the execution of capital allocation, the associated ROCE/ROE, and, most critically, the management’s commitment to securing superior technology through the JV—ensuring no compromise on technology quality, which is currently unavailable in India.
For further learning we must understand that, The five most important players in the Japan Machine Tool Builders’ Association (JMTBA) based on their global influence, market share, and technological advancements are:
- Fanuc Corporation
- DMG Mori Co., Ltd.
- Yamazaki Mazak Corporation (Mazak)
- Okuma Corporation
- Makino Milling Machine Co., Ltd.
Ranking by Network Size:
- Fanuc Corporation - Largest worldwide network, extensive in over 100 countries.
- DMG Mori Co., Ltd. - Strong global presence in more than 80 countries.
- Yamazaki Mazak Corporation (Mazak) - Extensive manufacturing and technical center network.
- Okuma Corporation - Broad international presence but less extensive than Fanuc, DMG Mori, and Mazak.
- Makino Milling Machine Co., Ltd. - Focused global network, especially in key markets.
This ranking is based on the global footprint of these companies, considering factors like the number of international offices, subsidiaries, distribution channels, and service centers. Fanuc leads due to its unmatched global reach and extensive presence across various regions.
Thats great insight, plz keep updating when you get new info on company. Really helpful
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Adding two cents to this, it seemed that in this particular call, a lot of undertones were there pointing towards that perhaps Rupesh sir is looking beyond 20-25% growth which is a given now as his guidance. Some of the indicators:
The ever expanding order book, the expansion of the dealer model for base machines.
The JV being an attempt to grow further with the current growth a given even without JV
The aggressive hiring of the sales team.
The closing note that don’t exit basis Q1 results in this industry.
**I feel the promotor pedigree is unmatched here and his operational skills are par excellence **
Personally for me highest allocation in portfolio and hence can be biased
I dont see CWIP in the financial statements to substantiate such a growth ? What am i missing ?
The pending order book ( Q1 presentation) points to avg realization of 18.5 lakhs per machine. In Q1 itself the avg realization was around 18.5 lakhs ( confirmed in the transcript ). Now, the EBITDA margin is higher for defence orders. But the avg realization for those orders is also higher than 18.5 lakhs. So, what could be driving this EBITDA margin expansion from 17% to 19% in FY 25 itself?
No capex is there right now. The management has already expanded capacity by 500 machines to take it to 2000 and some 2 Cr is spent on backward integration etc. The management told that in this FY they might add another 500 machines capacity in Jan, Feb and that’ll cost 10-12 Cr.