LUX INDUSTRIES - Can it Scale?

Notes from Conf call today (the points that I am tracking closely) -

  1. Status of amalgamation of JMH and Ebell - Post merger promoter holding will cross 75%, so company awaiting clarity from SEBI on whether they have to dilute pre or post merger. Answer continues to be that they are awaiting regulatory clearance and want to do this at the earliest

  2. Revenue growth in Q2 is due to volume growth of 21%, winter wear is clustered in Q2 and Q3, 116 Cr sales are from this segment which is up 50% YoY. Adjusted for this, rest of the segments in standalone business are close to 10-11% growth which is still 2X what other listed peers have done in Q2 (Page is yet to declare Q2 as I type this out)

  3. JMH and Ebell combined clocked PAT of 50 Cr FY19 and are likely to do 20% PAT increase YoY in FY20. For H1, they have grown revenue by 11% and 13% resp

  4. Working Capital optimization is a priority for the company, their target to grow revenue at 12-13% while keeping current level of WC constant in absolute terms. Though AR 2019 talks of launching a dealer financing scheme they are waiting and watching since this initiative has not paid off for their peers

  5. Exports for H1 at 70 Cr which is below expectations. One8 has been launched online and will come into the distribution channel from Jan 2020 onward. ASP continues to be at 8% of sales

  6. Market continues to be challenging, target of 1500 Cr for standalone business by FY21 remains

Reading between the lines -

Post merger PAT of 180 Cr looks doable for FY20
The spike in revenue seen in Q2 is unlikely to continue into Q3 and Q4 which may be more within the normal 13-15% range
Debt levels have been brought under control with finance cost falling 50% YoY

Disclosure: I am a SEBI registered IA and invested for self & customers.

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Finally some movement on this, with the open market sale the amalgamation can be expected to go through soon now - investors who know why they have bought into Lux Ind should not be surprised with the reduction in promoter holding % at all

Latest interview on CNBC more or less confirms that the management is walking the talk to a good extent. Let’s see how the numbers come in over the next 12 months.

Disclosure: I am an SEBI registered IA, invested for self and customers. Buys executed over the past 30 days and may add more based on market conditions.

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24/12/2019 Saket Todi interview on CNBC TV18 https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1209358145564184577?s=20

Notes

  • Sold 4.2% stake recently because after merger of 2 subsidiaries holding will go back again to 75%.

  • Turnover in FY19
    Ebell Fashion: 250 cr
    JM Hosiery: 320 cr.
    Margins better in Ebell and in JM it’s same as in Lux industries.

  • After merger EPS will be accretive to Lux Industries.

  • As a whole group targeting sales growth of 12-13% in FY20 against industry rate of 7-8%.

  • Winter sales going good.

  • Free cash flows in H1FY20.

  • Reduced WC in last two years.

  • Market share around 10-12% last year.

  • No Capex plan in next 2-3 years.

  • Cotton Prices are still low. It’s been flat in recent time.

  • Growth in premium segment is around 18%. Basic product growth 10%. Margins improving bcoz of it.

  • Overall growth in PAT will be around 15%.

  • Targeting to grow at double the industry growth rate.

Regards
Harshit

Disclosure: Small tracking position.

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50013b5f-9078-489f-bacc-d92240c2376f.pdf (3.5 MB)
Quarterly results are out …profit growth of 40 % qoq with better product mix and EBITDA margins.
Sales from operations grew by 7 % .
Regards
Divyansh
Disc : invested

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This has what page has delivered. Similar increase in revenues but drop in margins and net profit too.
Regards
Divyansh
.

Lux industries has corrected from levels of 1600 odd to 900…
This thread is inactive but I would like to hear views on possible outcomes on the business from seniors of this forum @zygo23554 and @hitesh2710

  1. Shops have started opening in green and orange zones. Their will be nil sales in the current quarter at most… what are the moving parts which one should watch out in this business and how the future evolves for it …
    Regards
    Divyansh
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Surprisingly not a lot of talk about the product itself considering it is a consumer product. I have personally never used any product myself so just wanted to do some very superficial research on it.
So on average the men’s innerwear has a rating of 3.5-4 stars on Amazon whereas the Lyra brand has a slightly higher rating. Jockey on the other hand has a better rating of 4-4.5 stars which shouldn’t be very surprising. All this is obviously assuming that the reviews are for the product and not for Amazon’s service.
So yes, I guess the product isn’t made to such a high standard and it’s probably more of a push brand than a pull brand considering they require huge advertising spends, especially those that require celebrities to promote them.

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A decent article which touches lux and page as well. Gives a peep into the past and how the industry developed.
Regards
Divyansh

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The silver lining for businesses other than Page Industries in the inner wear segment in India is that a good bulk of the labor costs involved aren’t fixed costs for them. These Kolkata based inner wear makers do the process part of the manufacturing in house while outsourcing the labor intensive parts of the process. Hence yarn spinning, dyeing, cutting are mostly in house while stitching is outsourced to some trusted vendors. So logically, if the COVID-19 induced depression lasts for two quarters, these companies will take part of the hit to ensure their vendors stay in business, if the disruption continues for much longer and it starts to get concerning, they have the option of saying “this is not on me anymore”.

Page Ind has significant labor expenses on it’s P&L and the hit there should actually be higher. Will be interesting to see how they navigate this.

In my assessment it is a high probability event that margins for Lux Ind will be higher 5 years down the line than they are today. In a consumer business operating leverage emerges from adverts and brand development expenses and not so much from manufacturing efficiency. Observe the EBITDA margins of Lux, Rupa and Dollar Ind till some years ago, they were less than 10% till they crossed a revenue base of 500 Cr. There is a bare minimum advert spend one needs to do to be able to sustain a national brand - usually this is in the range of 40-50 Cr. As revenue increases beyond this, brand spends need not increase proportionately and that is how consumer businesses manage to increase margins in addition to taking price hikes. See how adverts as a % of sales fell from 11% to 8% for a business like Marico over a decade (though not a very fair comparison).

The inner wear industry below the premium segment operates on a very simple principle - the leader sets the prices and the rest of the pack price themselves at a slight discount to the leader. While brands like CK can keep retailing at much higher prices, one would expect Page Ind to move the average SKU price higher over time with the rest of the market following suit.

In terms of revenue growth from here Lux is likely to do 12-15% broadly over the medium term if they do not make silly mistakes. A bit of pricing improvement, better product portfolio and operating leverage from advert spends should keep PAT growth 2-3% higher than revenue growth.

The key variables that I would track from here are -

Is the improvement in working capital and subsequent reduction in debt levels shown in FY19 going to sustain at current levels?
Will the management become prudent and measured on brand spends rather than continue to spend 8% of revenue as a static policy?
Will the management be smart enough to stay away from segments of women’s wear that are capital efficiency dilutive?
Will the management get too ambitious and indulge in unnecessary channel capex (opening EBO’s on a company owned) model rather than keep leveraging existing distribution channels?

It does not take a great management to deliver 15% earnings from here, the question is will they be disciplined enough to keep the good run of the past few years going?

Disclosure: Invested for self and customers

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LUX INDUSTRIES CONCALL FY20

The company was growing at a healthy rate before they had to shut down the plans for the last few days of the quarter. Loss of revenue and hence impacted the bottom-line. Plant operations resumed from May.

Despite hurdles, better operating matrices. Supply chain aspect – largest distribution network within the industry with strong presence in North, East and Western parts of the country. With the ease in lockdown conditions, good demand in rural and semi urban areas.
Extremely fragmented industry with multiple small players with limited financial resources. Bound to be a consolidation in the industry which will benefit the company in the short and long term both. The company expects to grab market share from the unorganized sector.

Focus is to constantly shorten the working capital cycle and improve CFO´s. Working capital cycle has reduced since September. Aim is to reduce the WC further.

Proposal to merge JM and Ebell Fashions Pvt Ltd with Lux Industries to be completed as soon as possible. No concrete date provided. Merger will strengthen the position and fulfill financial objective in terms of strength and efficiency of BS. Long term value creation.

Not for COVID, revenue growth would have been 8% for the quarter, EBITDA 6% and PAT 22%.
Minimal impact on Q1 since the company restarted operations in May, revenues to be impacted somewhere between 5-12%. Good traction in domestic market in May and June. Revenues to be affected due to exports.

Revenue for Q4 288cr vs 391.8cr. Fall of about 26%. EBITDA 47.7cr vs 64.6cr, maintain EBITDA margin and 16.5%. PAT 28.8cr vs 36.6cr. PAT margins 10.3%, showing an improvement of 90bps in same quarter last year.

JM group quarterly revenue of 80cr while Ebell posted rev of 60cr.

Yearly performance, rev stood at 1209.9cr vs 1216.5cr. Rev remained flat due to impact of plant shutdown due to COVID. Sales and marketing expenses 89cr approximately 7.36% of rev. Invested 566cr in the plant across 8 years ending FY20. EBITDA 190cr vs 187cr, growth of 2%. EBITDA margin improved by 33bps - 15.7% vs 15.4%. PAT 122.5cr vs 98.8cr growth of 24%. PAT margin 10.1% improvement of 200bps.

JM yearly rev 309cr, Ebell 271cr. Group turnover around 1790cr. Group EBITDA 270cr.
ROCE 27.8% ROE 24.7% NET DEBT TO EQUITY 0.3.

Export is 135cr which is same as last year. Domestic 1075cr.

Net distribution has been the same as last year. Some distributors added while some retired.

Eastern 27% Northern 35% Western 19% Central 16% remaining South.

Degrowth in Q4 because the company was not able to shift the orders to the wholesale channel.

Impact of lockdown is less than the industry because even though the company was not able to sell, the consumption of the product had not stopped even for a single day. Dealers and distributors are paying upfront money for the products they are purchasing because they are seeing entire sales happening. Credit in this system has gone down substantially. Company has been taking upfront money from the distributors and distributors have been taking upfront money from the retailers. Entire supply chain right now is going on a hand to mouth basis, so demand in current quarter is very good.

Products are not cyclical purchase. Recurring purchase. People don´t have a habit of buying in bulk, they buy as and when required. Continuous purchase and demand.

Out of the 2.5-2.75 lakh outlets, a bulk of the retail counter are in non-urban areas and even during lockdown all of them were more or less operational. In the rural belt, a lot of kirana stores have also started selling the products. Hoping to achieve good sales figure for Q1.

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LUX industries concall for Q1 FY 21

  1. Revenue down 6 % 263 cr to 247 cr, Ebitda is up 34% 34cr to 47 cr, PAT up 64 % from 19 cr to 31 cr.
  2. Ebitda margins jumped 560 bps and PAT margins jumped 540 bps. This is mainly on account of cost cutting lead by curtailing of advt spends which they have reduced to 4-5 % from around 7-8 % of their reveues. Company plans to go to back to 7-8 % advt spends once business resumes normal post covid.
  3. Company is net debt free with loans of around 50 cr and deposits worth 58 cr.
  4. The mass division Lux brand contributed 90 % to the topline and rest by other brands. Women sales were very poor for the quarter (e bell div).
  5. Operating cash flows have improved due to more of cash transaction in post covid world.( This was observed in APL apollo too). Working capital reduced due to credit period reduced. This might normalise a bit when business resumes normal.
  6. Most of the channel inventory is depleted and the same may lead to increase of sales once restocking happens. Their products were getting consumed like essential commodity and sales were ok even after 45 days of complete lockdown.
  7. The management spoke about how the organized is more capable of handling disruptions like covid, but the answers were not very detailed. According to them Q2 and Q3 will are better quarters and sales of winter wear might work in their favor. The unorganized sector might find it difficult to manufacture winter wear which is little more complex than other hosiery products. Winter wear contributed 200 cr last year.( to be tracked for walking the talk).
  8. Rural demand is strong as compared to the urban demand (65% : 35%). Most of the sales are still through normal retail selling points/shops.
  9. Annual maint capex at 10-15 cr for the year. No big capex planned for the year though the company investor ppt talks about phase 2 expansion for next phase of growth and the new dakuni manufacturing unit coming up in WB.
    Few observations/side notes :
  10. The concall was handled by the second generation promoters ( Udit todi and Saket Todi). Seems the transition is happening slowly. Both were fairly ok in answering the queries, however few data points were not readily available like Gross margins for different product segments.
  11. They sounded bullish and wanted to projected growth and efficiency ratios as their main focus. need to follow up for execution
  12. According to them supply side from the unorganized will affected and even after situation resumes normal, few customers as well as trade partners might stay with the organized players.
  13. Hosiery business according to me has survived the pandemic well as the products are more or less essential in nature. Business is not very capex dependent, margins might rise with the addition of premium products and if the supply side gets affected due to disruptions than tailwinds will get strong for organized players. Company has added advantage of being debt free and outsources processes like stitching which helps it keep itself asset and employee light.
    best
    divyansh
    disc: invested and would add on dips based on Q2 performance
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The big takeaway for me during the Q2 conf call was that the company is now looking to expand the EBO footprint. They have had just 9 EBO’s for a very long time and till a few quarters ago they were reluctant to go the EBO way. By end of this FY the target is to open 20-25 EBO’s and then scale to 100-125 by the next FY. While the first few will be company owned, the bulk of this expansion will be through the franchise route.

When consumer brands get their EBO approach wrong, it can impact balance sheet and set them back a few years. See how Mirza International screwed up with their company owned store expansion spree, Relaxo’s foray too wasn’t very smooth in the initial years.

It is comforting to some extent that they are going the franchise route and keeping a good chunk of the operating expenses like rent and payroll off their books, remains to be seen how they execute. What I would want to track over the next few quarters is -

Inventory to be maintained per store
Locations where they open the stores
How much revenue can be clocked per store
Though is beneficial to the brand, how much management bandwidth will this call for
Will they be hiring someone with prior experience of managing EBO’s well

Disclosure: Invested for self and customers

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Good results delivered in line with overall industry

Key take aways

  • Quarterly PAT at 55 cr - Q4 is usually stronger than Q3, FY 21 PAT likely to be in vicinity of 200 cr, current market cap,is 4650cr and balance sheet at leanest as it has ever been

  • Ironically at ATH of price around 2050 in May 18, yearly PAT runrate was around half of FY21 end PAT - balance sheet was at highest level of borrowing, Op Margins were much lesser

  • Working capital reduction continues per updates

  • number of positive callouts around unorganized to organized, women innerware in lower tier cities etc., online sales getting good traction

To watch out for - hopefully in concall we will get more details

  • As @zygo23554 rightly indicated, retail store ambitions are clearly visible however not aware of strategy and core team( hiring?)
  • CFO resignation on results day AND Releiving same day?
  • New CFO Joining from Future group background - unfair to doubt pedigree but don’t consider future group to be a good corporate governance reference
  • Indication of advertising and mktg budget going back to 7% from current 4% - steep jump - will this be at full cost of margins or a better product mix + sustainable cost optimization will ensure improving margin trajectory over past years

Invested - barring pure digital plays, been one of the top quartile company which not only recocovred faster and posted YoY growth from June 20 Qtr itself in Corona times, but also came out stronger - deserves credit for execution.

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Other things to note -

  • The consolidated entity will probably end up at a normalized PAT > 250 Cr each year from here. Effectively PAT will be higher than standalone by 30-35% while equity dilution will be 19%
  • Lux Ind has been beating the revenue growth rate of Page Ind over the past few quarters
  • Annual run rate for Lux Ind Q3 across standalone, JMH and Ebell combined is already at 2,200 Cr. Page Ind is at an annual revenue base of ~3000 Cr and a market cap of ~34,000 Cr
  • Net cash company as of Q3, surplus at 140 Cr which can fund future expansion with no capital raise

I hope they stick to an asset light EBO expansion and stay within the realm of their proven market strengths. Will also be interesting to see if they will announce foray into women’s innerwear given the drastic improvement in balance sheet quality. They do have some presence in bottom wear but not significant yet, I hope they stick with categories like athleisure, leggings and other bottom wear.

Disclosure: Invested for self and customers, transactions in the past 30 days

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Ratings upgrade, stability over Medium term was referred few times,

Kotak small cap has consistently increased stake from 1.3 to 4.53% over last 12 quarters. LIC at 2.6% in last two quarters

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Greenfield Capex of 110 cr to be funded by cash in hand, capacities running at 100%, expect 400 cr revenue addition from this investment

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  1. I am confused as how this info should be consumed or used as a investor. If the capacities are running at 100 % then capex should have been planned in advance so that business growth can be smooth and planned.

  2. If the capacities are now running at full , what might be the implications of the same till the time new capacity comes online . New ones will take atleast 18 months to come online ( 6 quarters ). Are the 3 parties that reliable and profitable that the company will rely on them for a considerable amount of time. Need to follow the sales and OPM for understanding the same.

  3. Current sales of the company are 1300 Cr and the expansion will help generating around 400 Cr (best case) , so around 1800 Cr revenue in 2 years …which is arnd 30 % more than current one. Is this capex planning prudent or it should have been bigger.
    Views and explanations welcome
    Disc: invested from quite lower levels

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Would be great to have @zygo23554 prospective but here is what I think

Times like these over last 3 qtrs , smart mgmt are very careful and focused on balance sheets hence loan reduction, working capital reduction and cash flow etc have been a focus for last 3 qtrs - case for Lux as well.

Now that they have seen that Lux products are doing well irrespective of pandemic( organized industry itself gaining ) and capacity choke points visible and demand being robust with visibility, they would like to balance in house vs 3rd party mfg + warehousing mix for various reasons.( quality, turn around time , ops efficiency with warehousing and automation etc)

Ideally they should have hinted in last con call but guess this is time of being aggressive as well with market Dynamics and IMO a good sign to be agile.

Given amount is not high and funded by internal accruals, supported by upcoming Q4 which should look good ( cotton price are high but may not impact this qtr),

valuations are quite attractive as explained by @zygo23554 factoring merger and compared to peers, Annual run rate for Lux Ind Q3 across standalone, JMH and Ebell combined is already at 2,200 Cr. Page Ind is at an annual revenue base of ~3000 Cr and a market cap of ~34,000 Cr
technically also holding well of support range of 1650-1700 range.
Invested and adding on dips

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Management interview on the capex plans… Also the merger hearing is tomm in nclt…
Planning to do arnd 2200 to 2500 Cr sales by fy 24 …
Looks feasible
Best
Divyansh

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Was the CFO resignation issue discussed on the con-call? Combination of 3 factors - The subsidiaries amalgamation + CFO of past 15 yrs resigning + Past history of RPTs seems to be a big red flag to me.

Disclosure : - Not invested. Started analyzing this and came across the CFO issue in recent filings.

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