hi niranjan,
i am in the process of reviewing the count posted on the chart. will update it soon
Hi Hemant,
Could you please update the count and analysis (if theres any change than you previously thought). Thanks!
Niranjan
hi niranjan,
my count is the same as posted on the link. we are re-testing the recent lows again. if we break the low marking start of minor 1, then we could be in trouble. market is in panic and could get there as well so i am keeping a close eye.
Thanks Hemant. Lets hope it gets back up 
Niranjan
Hi Hemant,
Could you please share your thoughts on Nifty? since the lows have been broken now. Does this violate the whole count?
Thanks & Regards,
Niranjan
hi niranjan,
the low i was referring to was closing low of 5570 made in november. till that is broken on a closing basis, the count remains intact. market is showing some resilience around current levels and we have to wait and watch to see how the next few weeks pan out.
Cool. thanks my bad, I was assuming you meant 5663.60 …
Cheers!
Niranjan
I think we might have started/be on the verge of starting a counter trend rally which could last a few weeks and might target levels of around 19400-500. Post that there could be a fall again and the resumption of the downtrend to lower levels. This is my reading of situation currently. I dont get this index assumptions right most of the times so my reading may be taken with a pinch of salt.
I have been reading vivek patil’s elliot wave analysis without too much conviction but must say that he has got it right till now. Since nov -dec 2012 he has been maintaining that there is a high possibility of markets topping out in jan-mar 2013 period. And till now it seems to have been the correct premise.
The worrying thing about patil’s forecasting is that he says we are in a bear market which should last close to 13-14 months that should see us through march 14 and valuewise also he says that index might shed a lot more than what people expect. He always writes cryptically but in essence his targets are in the range of 15000 Plus or minus for sensex to be attained by march 14.
The falls will always be followed by rallies as nothing falls in a straight line (except maybe arshiya and cebbco) but these will be weak rallies which may not last too long and will be followed by falls which are of higher magnitude.
Only thing I feel unusual is that we have seen a real bad carnage in small and midcaps and if index were to go to 15k levels as predicted, one just has to imagine how low these small and midcaps can go. Just hope for the sake of investors that patil is wrong in the later part of his elliot wave analysis.
I think the key thing is to take things as they come without trying to forecast too much and stay focussed on stocks which we know more about than most. One has to be nimble and be ready to be flexible in the investment process.
Credit Suisse has put India in cheapest 4 markets. Their claim : we have done this 14 times in past 20 years. 13 times India has out performed. Also, Nagnath of DSPBR is in the bull camp. He sees new high by Diwali.
Hitesh, as you have been keen observer of technicals I request your observation on MACD crossover and its co-relation with SENSEX monthly chart.
Hemant,
What are your views about the markets after the NIFTY breached 5570 today?
Hi Ankit,
I think Hemant was referring to NIFTY closing below 5570.
Hi hitesh,
Is Vivek Patil’s analysis available on a public link or site? Icicidirect asks for a login. If someone can post a link, that would be great.
)- HG
hi
there is no link to vivek patil’s analysis. You have to be an icicidirect.com account holder to access patil’s write up.
pl put up ur email id and i will forward u the write up.
@bharat, I dont follow the macd and sensex correlation so no idea about what you are mentioning about.
regards
hitesh.
Hi HG,
ICICI Direct publishes Weekly Analysis by Vivek Patil. I have it for the last 3 weeks. Give me your mail ID.
-Ram
hope u rsearchingfor this
http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_20134111501.asp?width=790&height=300px
hi ankit,
i am still reviewing the charts but the current count certainly may be incorrect. one possibility i am thinking of if, that the recent uptrend which i labelled as minor 1 of intermediate 3 could have been a part of intermediate 2. which means the current label for int 2 was only wave a, followed by b wave uptrend and the current selloff is wave c of int 2. this count does fit with the ongoing carnage in small and midcaps. given than it is still intermediate 2, the correction can either create a flat around the bottom of wave a or can go to much lower levels given US markets are now in correction mode 2. there is no need for a long term bearish count at the moment as nifty is in a yearly uptrend which means odds are still on the bullish side. the count gets invalidated when 4700 is broken on nifty. i will update the charts when i have reviewed all the possibilities.
hitesh/ram - my email is gondil@gmail.com. If it is the same as what is avl at vishal’s link, then you could skip it.
vishal - thanks for the link.
worth watching shankar-udyan
Hi Hemant,
Could you please give your views on Nifty? Do you reckon its a dip or has the market formed a triple top and we are headed a lot lower?
Thanks!
Niranjan
hi niranjan,
nifty is not behaving in the way i was expecting it to. it has been creating overlapping waves ever since end-2011. the line in the sand for the bull market is 5500. weekly close below this would mean we are headed towards 4500-4700. till the upper range at 6300 breaks on the weekly basis, the range trading between 5500-6300 may continue. i am in the process of reviewing the charts and would update once i have something concrete.