Logistics sector

Hi KP,

As can be seen above, I have been invested in logistics companies since some time.

Therefore, trying to share my viewson couple of points raised by you. My views, I must point out may be biased :slight_smile:

Entry Barriers Low = Yes. [But I believe one needs should look beyond entry barriers sometimes. I don’t mind investing in a company which operates in an industry where entry barriers are low, but there are barriers toSCALE going ahead). It is like a big tree in the forest which doesn’t allow other small weeds (that grow around it)to receive adequate sunlight. Hence yes, weeds grow but eventually they will die. It would be difficult for new entrants to replicate the size and scale of infrastructure and operations that Gatis and Bluedarts of the world would have built. And this barrier would keep on increasing for new entrantsby passage of time.]

Capex Intensive Business = Yes. (But this in itself creates a barrier for new entrants. Lot of start-ups in this space have died and would die due to lack of capital. Let me try to give an analogy although it might not fit exactly in this case. In US Amazon is the leader in online retailing. Would PE or VC be comfortable funding a new online retail start up that tries to compete with Amazons of the world. I don’t think so. Similarly once companies like Gati are able to become big, it would keep on becoming all the more difficult for new entrants to get funding. Hence this also would act as a barrier even if a player enters this segment. Again this barrier would keep on increasing for new entrants by passage of time.]

Other Ancillary Point with respect to small town players or unorganised sector(which I am sure most of us would know about):

Small players and unorganised players operating in towns etc.,would face headwinds as their price advantage (due to taxe considerations, etc.,) will start waning due to implementation of GST, as in transportation and logistics business there is a tendency to engage with unorganised playersdue totax considerations. Competitive positioning of organised players would increase. Share from un-organised players would go towards organised players. At present 90-95% share is with unorganised sector (had read in a report sometime back). Unorganised players would need to improve their service and efficiency levels, but above 2 factors would be a hindrance. Hence they would need to collaborate/merge or give up their business shareto organised players. Going ahead (long term)it would become imperative for unorganised players to collaborate (utilise supply chain facilities of organised players, etc.,), if not then either sell out or perish.

I also feel that, lot of manufacturers and end users in the long terms would not mind out-sourcing their logistics requirements to these players, once the sector is able to drive efficiency by supply chain re-enginnering, proper ware house mgmt., consolidation, etc., There are costs associated in the short to medium term but in the long term this would help in making the pricing competitive. In the long term we may reach a point where it would become more cost effective for manufacturers etc,. to hive of their own logistics arms and outsource the same.

Things like GST implementation, B2C e-commerce FDI (any money that comes in would flow to these players as any big international player would like to collaborate with players with established suppy chain), whenever implemented would only make things better for organised players.

There may be other points as well which can be discussed, but I have tried keeping my response directed towards points raised by you.

There is a lot that still needs to be done by the sector itself and in terms of other reforms etc., that would act as enablers for growth in the long term.

Not all businesses can be picked up on the basis of numbers as opporunities may take time to translate into numbers. Such businesses are easy to be invested into at lower levels when their stock prices are down. It is a difficult choice indeed at current levels as the valuations look very stretched and the margin of safety may be very low. I myself was taken aback by the steep rise in prices and these have been multibaggers for me. But fortunately enough, due to steep rise I have been able to book profits twice and then re-enter at lower levels making my holdings cost free.

I would continue to hold onto these for the very long term though.

Discl: Logistics contributes 13% of my portfolio at present(due to rise in stock prices). I have a basket of logistics stocks (micro and macro plays)which I treat as a single stock. Stocks include Gati (major holding in this basket), TCI, Snowman, and Gujarat Pipavav.

Cheers!!!

HR.

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