Lockdown - Extension - Market Timing Agility

One big learning for me during 2008 was this - Actively keep considering all possibilities without committing mentally to any specific possibility. This can help us be more agile if not anything else.

The above is a behavioral actionable for me, not necessarily an actionable on what to buy.

Every meltdown goes through a similar process since narrative follows the price. When the media and investor narrative looks negative all around, there is some merit in going against the grain and thinking about other scenarios but in not taking positions till the real world gives an indication of what might transpire. Even at the risk of sounding silly when one considers possibilities. The market does not punish for thinking about possibilities which do not materialize, the market punishes for acting based on hypothesis which turn out to be wrong. I don’t mind being silly in my thinking but I need to be measured in my actions.

My investment process will see a couple of minor tweaks but what I end up buying will not depend on whether the lock down will continue or not. When I buy will be influenced to a good extent on whether the lock down continues or not and on what other events transpire in the short term

I am not excited about buying a high quality business, I am excited about buying a high quality business near to the best price that the market can offer. We can do all the sector related fundamental work we want to (which we will anyway do irrespective of the market situation), in market meltdowns the investors who get their timing right (whether by design or by luck) are the ones who laugh all the way to the bank.

Working on my agility and being calibrated to market moves is the biggest actionable for me right now. Need not be the same for everyone, some investors may see greater value in cutting out the noise and focusing more on business research.

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