Koustubh's Portfolio

[Koustubh1]

Buying Gokaldas Exports Ltd. below 500 in this recent fall

[redsyrup]

Hello Koustubh, I just came across MK exim and it looks like an interesting bet. Its profits seems to be rising every year and that I believe has to do with the management change. But there are red flags to it, if you have an latest information on it please do share. I will greatly appreciate it.

[prav.br]

Curious to know what are the red flags you found.

[Koustubh1]

I have recently started trimming my position in Gokaldas exports. This is primarily due to the stock doubling on account of a recent acquisition and early signs of demand recovery from the US market. While the thesis stays intact, I want to raise cash to deploy in the next 3-4 weeks. There exist 5-6 new opportunities that I have been studying lately and would soon make some new entries.

[Koustubh1]

Recently initiated position building in International Combustion (India) Ltd.

[Koustubh1]

As an experiment, I had constructed a portfolio of 10 stocks with equal weights in July 2023 to observe if effective bottoms up stock picking based on some sound thesis is an effective strategy to beat the market in a steaming bull run and here’s my results attached in the picture. 8% Nifty vs 23% Portfolio returns. This is not my chest thumping announcement of glory, it is only my way of reassuring myself that stock picking is the way to go. Happy Investing: Hang in there as there is money to be made, wealth to be created, value to be unlocked and most importantly lessons to be learnt!

[Koustubh1]

Happy New Year!
Lately I have been noticing the following in the market:

• 1. Significantly higher price and volume action in SME and MicroCap segment of the market.
• 2. Indices rallying on the basis of traction in concentrated pockets/constituents. Not secular.
• 3. Pre-emptive moves being more pronounced than the last few years. For instance the move in adani stocks leading up to the court hearing.
• 4. IPOs being priced at the maximum followed by a very clear dip in the IPO action (both mainboard and SME).
• 5. Every analyst, fund manager, brokerage report yelling that they find ‘comfort’ in large caps and find froth in small caps.
• 6. Investors celebrating outperforming the daylights out of Nifty on twitter at the end of the year.

The saying ‘Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent’ couldn’t be more true. My sense is that markets in 2024 will be great for bottom up stock investors - especially in the small and midcap segments. When I say this I mean investors who pick quality stocks (basis healthy cash flows, reasonable growth, able management, private capex, controlled debt/equity amongst others) would probably be the only ones who outperform the market this year. Irrespective of events such as the general election and its outcome (which seems pretty clear at the moment), my sense is that the frenzy in PSUs such as defence and railway companies, low quality banks etc will come to a hault soon.

The winds are changing directions. What do I believe will work? Speciality Chemicals, Pharma value chain, good quality financials (large private banks, NBFCs, home financiers, auto lenders etc.), Industrial goods, and segment wise - I think some interesting microcaps trading at extremely cheap valuations will get explored and value there can get unlocked. Turning bearish on the back of high earnings multiples and “valuation discomfort” etc might have worked in 2023 but once margins recover (soon), these counters will see institutional money rushing in to them.

Speculation corner (because why not?): The markets may experience a 15% correction.

[Going to disclose my updated portfolio here in the coming threads]

[Koustubh1]

Every year in January I conduct equity research. Historically this research of mine has been able to find me stocks like Jash Engineering, KPIT, Gokaldas exports, Creative Newtech amongst many others that have performed exceedingly well. Of course, I have made my fair share of mistakes as well (Manali Petro and BEPL are classic cases) but this does not stop me in 2024. Here’s the list of stocks I am tracking for this year. Note that I may already have built positions in a few of these names. Also, once my research is complete, I may buy some of these names in the coming few weeks.

Sno.	Stock Name	Sector	Price (INR)	Market Cap (in Cr, INR)
1	Ami Organics	Speciality Chemicals	1150	4244
2	International Combustion	Capital Goods	1440	345
3	Shree Pacetronix	Healthcare/Manufacturing	220	79
4	Control Print	Industrial Printing	1030	1650
5	SKP Bearing Industries	Ball Bearings/Rollers	393	393
6	Galaxy Bearings	Ball Bearings/Rollers	1560	497
7	Aurangabad Distillery	Alcohol	298	244
8	Shivalik Bimetal Controls	Shunts Manufacturer	598	3441
9	AAA Technologies	Information Security and Auditing	103	132

[PaulsonT]

Could you please share your research findings on AAA Technologies

[Koustubh1]

Made a few additions, updated some information and fixed some typos. Here’s the updated research list:

Sno.	Stock Name	Sector	Price (INR)	Market Cap (in Cr, INR)	P/E Ratio
1	Ami Organics	Speciality Chemicals	1150	4244	55
2	International Combustion	Capital Goods	1423	340	19.3
3	Shree Pacetronix	Healthcare/Manufacturing	220	79	19.1
4	Control Print	Industrial Printing	1030	1650	28.5
5	SKP Bearing Industries	Ball Bearings/Rollers	262	436	32.9
6	Galaxy Bearings	Ball Bearings/Rollers	1544	491	27.1
7	Aurangabad Distillery	Alcohol	298	244	12
8	Shivalik Bimetal Controls	Shunts Manufacturer	584	3361	43.6
9	AAA Technologies	Information Cyber Security and Auditing	103	132	41
10	Walpar Nutritions	Pharmaceuticals	104	49	35.5
11	Avro India	Plastic Products	128	129	31.6
12	Clean Science & Technology	Speciality Chemicals	1523	16178	58.7

[Koustubh1]

Thanks for your question. Will share detailed analysis once research is complete soon.

[manasmonu]

Shree PAcetronix - Although QoQ results in Q3FY23-24 have been a little dismal. Overall 9MFY23-24 has been good enough. We see growth in Sales Revenue, Net Profit and EPS too.
Why then the share’s price has been rolling down in such a hurry? What is that info about the company, which is not available in the public domain?

[aishikgupta]

You haven’t elaborated your rationale behind picking GMM Pfaudler yet in this thread. I would like to know your opinion on it since I bought just 1 stock and it fell down 15%…should I load more ?? Is it an opportunity to buy more of GMM Pfaudler?

[Rahul2015]

@Koustubh1

Walpar Nutritions Pharmaceuticals 104 49 35.5

Hi Koustubh, Could you please share your thesis/insights on Walpar nutritions?