@ShrenikBhura ,
I would love to be proven wrong about Longsheng. As I have heavy long position on Kiri.
The source for mcap was a simple search and not SSE website. Sample their stock performance: in 10 years it fell from 14 Yen to today 10 as per WSJ. They are not going anywhere soon to become a great company.
My concern is more about the Chinese promoters and their intent. There is a nagging doubt if they are also playing the receivers just like they did Kiri. After all there is the precedent in gaming the legal system for a decade. Is this more of the same drama?
Plus they have not announced it to their shareholders yet as per my above link. This type of price sensitive information should be dealt in a timley manner.
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I understand your concern but I have more faith in Singapore’s judicial process and the role and function of the Receivers. Rest, definitely now time will tell.
If one wants to closely track their corporate announcements, then this seems are more updated link. One may have to hit translate in the browser to make sense of it and still the PDFs are all in Mandarin. 
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Longsheng Board of Directors posted the announcement of buyout in Mandarin website of Shanghai Stock Exchange. From what I see one hindrance is Chinese Govt is involved like our FEMA.
Here are the excerpts from the Google translated PDF (attached):
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The Buyer does not acquire the Company’s shares on or before October 2, 2025 or November 3, 2025 (as applicable) or the Takeover, etc…etc.. The receiver has the right to terminate the agreement if the accrued interest and adjustment amount (if any) are due
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The estimated value of 100% of DyStar’s shares is between 1.791 billion and 1.901 billion.
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Filing and registration procedures with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange or its local branches.
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The purchase of assets involves overseas transactions and still needs to complete the procedures of the above-mentioned government departments
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On May 29, 2025, the Company, KIRI (signed by the Receiver’s representative) and the Receiver signed “Share Sale and Purchase Agreement for 37.57% of the Issued Share Capital of DyStar Global Holdings (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.” The closing price is US$696,547,800 plus any adjustments made on or after the closing date.
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Held on 29May2025 the Voting results: 9 votes in favor, 0 votes against, and 0 abstentions.
Translated version is here:
600352_20250531_D8H5 (1).pdf (193.0 KB)
Link to the original document in local language:
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I think now that the company has declared its financial results for the year it is more prudent for us as minority shareholders to verify/ask questions as to where the 1450 odd crores that were received in this year through the judgement finance and warrants have been spent.. the cash flow statement shows about 400 crores in fixed assets including w.i.p and about a 100 crores for loan repayment.. rest all under loans, current & non current advances, investments etc.
The correct and efficient deployment of funds is something that manish kiri should be upfront about. Because their payment of warrant money and the judgement finance procurement timing overlaps.
While i am.okay to give benefit of doubt but if someone here is a proficient reader of financial statements they can shed critical light on the same. Or perhaps in the concall this question should be taken up with the adage of Ceasers wife onus on the promoter.
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This explains a lot of what happened yesterday - algo trading punters were at it.
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Concall highlights
Process completely driven by Deloitte. Kiri had no say.
Longshen highest bidder @1.91 billion
Manish Kiri said some part of proceeds will be used to reward shareholders
No major update on copper plant except except tying of raw materiak key success factor for project. 8000 cr capex over three years with 45000 cr max revenue potential.
Money expected by oct 2. Or latest Nov 2
603 million as against share sale. Rest as legal cost, receiver fees, interest cost
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Kiri Industries Ltd_ Valuation Analysis and Investment Thesis Post-DyStar Divestment.pdf (479.8 KB)
Above is a valuation analysis done using publicly available information with the help of Gemini AI by giving directed feed of company filings in the last year or more up to the Q4 FY25 earnings call. Would be great if folks herein could review it.
It will help us understand and may be even appreciate the power of AI that we now have at our disposal and at the same time arrive at a consensus estimate for the company’s stock price / valuation in base, bear and bull case scenarios.
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Dr. Sarkar seems to be at the works since 2020. At least his LinkedIn profile states so.
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Rs 8000 crore Investment
Rs 45000 crore revenues
Rs 4000 Ebidta
Assuming 7.5% Depreciation
Rs 600 crore Depreciation
Rs 3400 crore EBIT
Thats 40% ROCE
Is anything wrong with my workings or can some member with greater experience in the metals space share some insights.
Many a slip between the cup and the lip. These are idealistic scenarios wherein you have assumed that entire capex will be internally funded hence no interest cost. And this is a 4 year timeframe scenario during which a lot can and will change. So a back of the envelope calculation doesn’t completely work here.
EBIT is before interest cost. ROCE is calculated using EBIT.
Yes, sorry, my oversight.
Management in most cases gives lofty for new capex, this seems to be one.
Would there be any kind of taxation related to the legal award?
Approx 12.5% or near about depends on additional expenses that can be set off. So net payout should be Rs 5100 crore +. Mgmt had shared more about this in their recent call so kindly do check.
Have you taken into consideration that the company has to return the judgement finance of 1100 odd crores + interest to the lender on receipt of payment in your valuation thesis? This amount is already recd in FY25-26
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Funds currently borrowed will naturally get substituted by the Dystar sale proceeds. I am trying to evaluate the overall copper businesses economics.
@Rocky_Chow asking me? Yes. I have. Pls study it and let me know if anything has been missed.
On June 5, 2025, DyStar announced that its main shareholder, the Zhejiang Longsheng Group, had acquired 37.57% of the shares in Kiri Industries Limited. With this acquisition, DyStar Global Holdings Pte. Ltd., Singapore, becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co. Ltd., Shaoxing/China.
»We are delighted with the conclusive resolution of the dispute, which enables DyStar Group to move forward with certainty, confidence, and renewed strategic focus. This marks a significant milestone in our 30-year journey as it reinforces our long-term stability and commitment to our global stakeholders. « says Xu Yalin, Managing Director, and President of DyStar Group
DyStar website has this article. It is not clear if money has already changed hands.
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Not so soon but “delighted with the conclusive resolution of the dispute” is a very firm and positive sentiment and statement. Regulatory clearances are pending. Guess 30 to max 60 days instead of the long 90 days as pre-approvals may have been taken before bidding.
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