Kaynes Technology India Limited - The EMS giant in making

SEBI has issued a Show-Cause Notice (SCN) to Mr. Ramesh Kunhikannan, the Managing Director of Kaynes Technology, regarding alleged violations of insider trading regulations.

The notice does not confirm wrongdoing yet, but seeks an explanation from the MD before SEBI decides on further action.

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Future outlook as per Investors presentation PPT.

•Clear strategy to become an integrated global ESDM player.
•Expanding into HDI PCBs and OSAT (semiconductor packaging) — huge opportunity given India’s focus on electronics localization.|
•Consistent focus on high-margin ODM and IoT products.
•Revenue expected to compound 20–25% CAGR over the next 3 years.
Disclaimer: Invested

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Kaynes results were good. At 60% growth guidance, with mgmt affirming revenues to come from semiconductors (osat) in fy27, seems like a structural growth story for the years to come. Finance and depreciation costs to remain elevated as they have to build capacities for global customers to believe in their ability to execute. Receivable days were higher due to high receivables from one of their acquisitions. Valuation remains high but seems cheap if we consider 40-50% growth for next 2-3 years. Negative cash flows remain a concern, due to high inventory and receivables pileup.

Disclaimer: Invested.

4 Likes

Summary Comparison: Presentation vs Earnings Call

Investor Presentation (May 2025) Earnings Call (May 2025)
Revenue Growth FY25 Revenue ₹2,721.8 Cr (+51% YoY) Same figure confirmed; FY26 revenue growth guidance: 60% YoY
EBITDA Margin 15.1% (FY25), up 101 bps YoY FY26 guidance: 50 bps margin expansion
PAT & Margins 293.4 Cr, PAT margin at 10.8% Management expects continued PAT growth with improving mix
Order Book 6,596.9 Cr Order inflow improved from 4,285 Cr/month to 5,114 Cr/month in Q4
Business Mix Diversified: EMS, ODM (18%), IoT, Aerospace, Automotive Management confirms higher mix of high-margin ODM, IoT, defense and smart meters in FY26
Capex Plan Total capex for OSAT (3,400 Cr) & HDI PCB (1,400 Cr) FY26 key year for ramp-up; subsidies to fund 65–70% of cost
New Projects OSAT & PCB plants under construction OSAT chips expected in Q3–Q4 FY26, PCB production to start early CY26
Global Expansion Canada acquisition (August Electronics) + US expansion Management emphasizes margin-accretive, access to new customers + geographies
Working Capital NWC Days increased to 87 Addressed in call – plans to reduce via supplier inventory, better receivables control
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Kaynes Technology FY25 Results
PAT up 60% in FY25
Eyes 60% Revenue growth in FY26
Targeting $1B by FY28 & $2B by FY30
Strong growth fully priced in; limited margin for error
Limited upside unless margins or scale beat expectations

Can we expect flawless execution thru FY30?

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Bhai - I was invested from lower levels and had done an exit after Q3. Something strange happened here:

  • I guess a week before the management came on TV and said that they will surprise on the upside while the price was falling. In Q3 they missed their guidance and said some projects saw delays. As the delays were not anticipated when they came on TV, a general assumption is that the delayed work will push in Q4. Management revised FY25 revenue downwards.
  • Q4 results were normal Q4 seen for this company but with margin expansion - it did not have any additional revenue to meet even the lower end of the revised guidance. So they fell short on their overall FY25 guidance.
  • For FY26, they maintained the same growth % number, however now with a lower base - so effectively they reduced their guidance for FY25 and beyond with a twist they said margins will see an upside. Generally when the results are to come good, price will start telling the story in advance. Since they declared their results, stock price is on a downward trajectory - and in between came surprise when management sold stake - surprisingly the buyers seems to have bought in small quantities - else their names would have been reported along with the seller names.

I would stay cautious on this counter till management delivers what they project.

4 Likes