Kaveri Seeds - Temporary thread for clarifications

If the concall was actually at 2pm today, can someone please share the concall details that has sparked this massive sell-off at 2:50pm?

How I wish I listened to Basant Maheshwari about avoiding regulated sectors before investing in this type of a business! :anguished:

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Concall is available in researh-bytes

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I was joined in 10 min lateā€¦ I could not make any notes as I was in office. Below are the some points which
i could remember.But not sure why it went down so drasticallyā€¦ may because not much growth expected from Management in cotton acreage.

  1. Management said,they are sure to grow by 25% in next fiscal.SOld close to 58 laks packet this year(H2) and
    hopeful to sell around 70-75 laks packet next year.

  2. He said, they are confident of winning the case against Monsanto

  3. This quarter loss is due to the write off in Maize seeds.

  4. If the Court order is in favour of Monsanto, they can easily pay that amount(65 Cr Q1+1Cr Q2) as they have close to 300 Cr cash
    Most of the cash in liquid MFā€™s

  5. Rasi and Nuziveedu gained market share at the expense of Kaveri.Now its around 14%

  6. There will not be much improvement in cotton acreage. This year, it was around 4Cr packet.
    Next year, packets demand would be around 4.2Cr to 4.4Cr and out of which they are targetting for 70 laks packet.
    Farmers from Karnataka and other state may again switch to cotton next year(20-40 laks more packet)

  7. Out of 58 laks this year-33 laksā€“Andhra and Telangana
    12 laksā€“Maharasthra
    5 laksā€“Karnataka
    i think, remaining from Rest of india

  8. On the Vegetable seed business, not much revenue

  9. Planning to increase the cash chest to 400 Cr. i think, he said no dividend

  10. Spending around Rs.12/packet for advertising

  11. By next May, tey will have close to 90 laks packet stock.(i think 45 laks this year unsold inventory+45 next year)

  12. There were some talks on whitefly issue in Punjab which they said it was not due to seeds(dont remember the exact reason)

  13. For Some question on Govt agency in Nagpur releasing BG1 seeds with very less price, mgmt said those seeds will not be pet resistent as they are BG1
    and we are selling BgII already

Disc: Invested from lower level.>10% of Portfolio.

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Thanks for the notes from the concall.

There was a news item on the white fly attack on crops in Punjab. Because the pesticides had no effect on the crops grown from BT Cotton seeds, there was talk of govt screening the seeds in future. Was there any discussion about this in the concall?

Yes, as I mentioned, as per the management,it was not due to BT cotton seeds. I think, if i remember correctly, farmers did not follow some guidelines while planting.due to which plants were infected with pets
there was follow up question but I dont remember exactly :frowning:

Stock fell as they cut guidance for FY17.

They were earlier guiding for 90 lakh cotton packets (guided in q1 call), now reduced guidance to 25% growth over FY16 which translates to about 70 lakh packets.

Guidance reduced because they expect no growth in cotton acreage next year, expect tough conditions to continue for next year also.

Disclosure- Reduced a bit after poor q1 but still holding the rest shares.

Trade receivables on consolidated basis have further increased to Rs 199 cr as at 30/09/2015 from Rs 176 cr as at 31/03/2015.

When Company predominantly sold on cash & carry basis in Q1, such increase in receivables is not very clear and does it mean they have not managed to collect the outstanding receivables as at March 2015? Was there any discussion on these aspects in the concall.

Discl: Not invested.

Strongest El NiƱo in 18 Years announced.
Typically El NiƱo years coincide with deficient monsoon rains.

Read this link for more details
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/el-nio-of-2015-hits-alltime-record-strength-for-a-1week-period

Disclaimer:- Sold off Kaveri with huge loss :cry:

without getting into detailed analysis, over a period of time the BT seed business will do well. genetically, BT seeds need to be replenished after every harvest & most importantly, they form a very small portion of the total cost of cultivation pushing cultivators towards better yield producing branded seeds. Dont let the recent gyrations in the price scare you. They are part and parcel of investing. It is a fantastic business.

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You have captured all points very nicely.Just to add, they perform this write off (due to product return) every Quarter, however in Q2 40% of non cotton products were returned, so 55 Crs were written off against 22cr last year.
They are going to appoint one of the Big 4 as Auditors starting April 2016,mostly E&Y.

I was not comfortable with few points discussed during concall

1)Not yet finalized Dividend policy, they said they are focusing on sales and other tasks etc. but will form a policy soon -This is going on for a quite a while now

2)Guidance of 1.1 million production in August concall and cutting down the same to 0.9-1million - They give orders by June, so this should have been told in august itself.I could not understand their explanation of faulty batches/same cost etc.

3)One investor asked if there was an income tax raid 2-3 months back- Mithun chand strongly denied the same however is this a normal occurrence in conference calls[I have attended very few conference calls in my investing journey so this kind of query looked very strange to me]?

Disc - Invested at higher levels few months back