Today’s ET contain on frontage the news that new environment minister Moily is likely to allow field trials of GM crops reversing the stand of predecessors Jairam n Natarajan.
Wow!Tremendousknowledge…unbelievable the level of research that went in to this particular stock. Even after completely missing out the ride there is still so much to learn! Simply fascinating
As often said here the next big opportunity for Kaveri could be hybrid rice. Of the 40 million hectares under rice cultivation, hybrid rice accounts for 2 million. The firm expects area under rice hybrid seed to grow to 4-5 million hectares over the next three to four years. Kaveri has around 7% market share currently (Bayer has around 50%) and expects to post robust growth in this segment by launching two new rice hybrids soon. What is encouraging is that its hybrids continue to top Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) trials, much ahead of MNC competitors
Basically, Taleb proposes that what nature does, it does for a reason, and what we do to mess with nature is flawed until proven otherwise. In terms of evidence, nothing comes close to the statistical significance of nature. Nature also fails locally while the system lives on. Thus to override her we need a compelling justification (iatrogenics).
Asking for evidence of harm caused by genetically modified crops is similar to the approach we take with the justice system a that is, innocent until proven guilty. This approach, however, fails for anything where harm is not immediately apparent. In the justice system, harm is largely in the past so we spend time proving what has happened. But if the harm hasnat happened yetaitas delayed or not visible at firstathis system breaks.
The same arguments are being made now for genetically modified crops that were once made for trans fat. Looks like we were wrong about that one. But at the time, based on the ascience,a we saw no problems.
Current spot prices at Rs 20,500 a bale (170 kg) are 12 per cent below the levels seen at the beginning of the Indian cotton season October 1, 2013. This was expected as the cotton crop was expected to make new records in 2013-14. What has come as a surprise is prices have rebounded by 10 per cent since they bottomed in the first week of December at around Rs 18,500 a bale. Different scenarios could play out regarding the direction in the days to come.
So far, robust demand has supported the price. Export numbers suggests till mid-January, 5.5 million bales have been exported. This means 65 per cent of the total estimated exports of 8.5-9 million bales has been achieved in the first four months of the season. As against this, arrivals have been one-third of the total expected crop of 37.5 million bales during the same period. Clearly, higher demand has driven the prices since December. Consumption seems to be on the ascending path for the rest of the season that ends in September.
In the January-March quarter, 53-55 per cent of the total crop is expected to arrive, amounting to a little over 20 million bales. Because of delayed rain, a lot of cotton is still maturing. As against this, exports might dip a little at 3.5 million bales, compared with 4.4 million in the first quarter. Recently, import parity emerged and 200,000 bales of imports were contracted. Clearly, the quarter would be supply-heavy.
And yet, prices are unlikely to dip below the previous lows, as the annual cotton balance sheet of India remains tight. Assuming a crop of 37.5 million bales and exports of nine million bales and consumption of close to 30 million bales, ending stocks would look similar to what it was last year, which is close to 4.5-5 million bales. Prices will not fall in anticipation of higher prices in the second half.
Since the last couple of years, cotton yarn has emerged as a proxy tocotton importsfrom China. Cotton imports attract 40 per cent import duty, while cotton yarn attracts none. India remains the top supplier of yarn, and its yarn remains the cheapest in world. As a result, robust cotton exports and equally robust demand from domestic consumers will keep cotton demand in a very healthy shape.
Internationally, too,cotton priceshave rallied quite sharply and the demand rationing has not really appeared at higher levels. The rally is supported by the understanding that US ending stock is the lowest in four years.
On the other hand, China with 60 per cent of total global stocks and 162 per cent stock to use ratio, has declared it would discontinue its controversial stock reserve policy in 2014-15. As a result, as we get closer to 2014-15, chances rise of global prices coming under pressure. While a lot will depend on the 2014-15 acreage and crop, the prices will remain under selling pressure in anticipation.
It can be concluded the prices are currently running ahead of their time. Reduced activity on account of the Chinese New Year holiday might provide a much-needed break to the current price rise. A five to seven per cent correction in the January-March quarter cannot be ruled out. The second half of the cotton year will see firm prices, as the Indian balance sheet is tight; a rally of 10-15 per cent after the correction is most likely. If the demand-side story remains strong, we might end up revisiting the prices seen during last year-end at Rs 23,000 a bale
Has anyone received the split shares in the Demat Accounts yet? I have not received it yet even though the stock split has been effected and thus the price of the share has reduced. I trade through India Infoline.
Thanks a lot for the reply. Even I received the split shares on Wednesday. But I got the confirmation SMS from CDSL around 7 P.M. late evening. Due to some time constraints could log in here just today.
Inventory numbers will be shown only in balance sheet, which is give out by company only in March & Sep Qtr, i.e., twice a year. So wait for the next qtr. result for the inventory figures