Temperament is the single most important quality for any investor & I do get carried away at times I acknowledge . I am trying to improve this aspect .
A senior N big investor with a very good track record casually mentioned the info yesterday on Idfc . I tried checking BSE n NSE website but info was not available. Valueresearchonline website was unfortunately not working . Moneycontrol website seemed to confirm this info erroneously.
Hence the info was posted on the forum where the purpose of corroboration was served by denial of this grapevine by Pravin.
What is interesting is this IDFC fund has reduced Kaveri Seeds (marginal though, less than ~2% of holding) and added Bayer Corp Science (0.08% of pf) this quarter.This is may be purely coincidental though.
Much ado about nothing. The temper displayed in this post by the senior member was uncalled for.It was not an unnatural query/quip from Vivek and it is far from certain that his intentions were malafide/anything more than a genuine desire to know what really was the case.
One’s confidence in one’s idea should not be so thin that small “potential” rumors makes one lose sleep & get aggressively after any contrary opinions.
One can play the game as Keynes’ beauty contest or on intrinsic value. Which one - can make a big difference in the final analysis.
While in general terms your comment is right, but in this specific Kaveri case and generally with Vivek Gautam, panic at every real and imagined news flow is the order of the day. It is not one message at this forum - but ask Vivek how many people he has messaged at the middle of the night, and you will get a better picture. Also ask Vivek how many times he has resorted to this in the recent past and with how many folks, and you will be wiser.
I choose to ignore these, and occasionally reassure Vivek. But not everyone will take it that way every time. I think Hitesh has done Vivek a service by pointing to this repeated failing of his - it’s great of Vivek to acknowledge that readily - kudos to him, but it also points actually to his giving less importance to homework on the business and relying more on opinion polls from as many folks as he can get to - that is a more risky attitudinal issue for a serious investor!
Hitesh and Ayush are temperamentally one of the most balanced and helpful folks around that I have ever known - I can say with all honesty - and one has to only go through their posts/replies to know that - if they have reacted strongly, there is a good reason. And it is for Vivek’s own good. I have accommodated Vivek but never bothered to put it straight to him - so he is aware of the pitfalls, and may perhaps finally take corrective steps!
i m not invested in kaveri ,but to all investors in the company who r panicking ,i want ot ask u that , u all r invested bcoz an mutual fund is invested, so in the sense it seems u r mimicking a particular fund ,and not investing , any entry or exit of a fund does not make a company good or bad, its the fundamentals that affects the company
slightly of the topic on this thread, but do u know of any source ,off course free where one can look after history of trades by Funds (May be something like, weightage of Page in mentioned IDFC fund for last 10 quarters or more) , Morningstar only reports relative to last report … one of the thing I miss many times is inability to track if some fund building/reducing position in the stock gradually…Kenneth and few other guys are worth tracking what they are doing…atleast it gives a starting point to look further into story…
you can go through the thread of kaveri seeds and the annual reports of kaveri seeds to get a better idea about kaveri.
in my personal view kaveri seems attractive at cmp. But I dont think there is any drought situation… In fact situation could be reverse due to floods . But since kaveri mainly delivers in first quarter, we have to watch next june qtr which is a few quarters away. We will have to review the situation then.
You can do you own diligence on kaveri thru the kaveri thread, management q&a donald has provided and then decide.
1). Cotton - they are confident as ever, of building on this years gains. AP they did 38-40 lakh packets this year, they hope to consolidate on that in next season. Plan to focus attention on Maharashtra (in a big way) to grow. Inventory carry over of 40-45 lakh packets-this is the level they want to maintain for next 2 years - in order to be able to supply plentifully - to meet all demand. Seed Production 70 lakh packets. So its safe to assume plans of doing atleast 70-80 lakh packets in FY15E
Competitor Dealer Feedback - remains to be seen if they can repeat this years performance (haven’t we heard that before? :-)). Actually kharif crop may have suffered damages because of incessant rains. This dealer says - picture will be clear by December, when most crop would have been harvested! Nuziveedu is banking on Bhakti hybrid - which they themselves promote as Jadoo-like, a clone of Jadoo kaveri claims and has filed cases against NZ.
Kaveri Exclusive dealer feedback - he is most gung ho! after doing 12+lakh packets (3.5 lakh packets last year). He is expecting to do atleast 15-16 lakh packets and most probably 20 lakh packets next year. When asked if this was overconfidence (drunk on success) speaking - his response was Sir - there should be a competing product which should have done better than Jadoo/ATM in these incessant rains conditions - right Sir? When Nuziveedu field performance is bad and has been decimated last season by Jadoo in every area except Adilabad and pockets of Medak, Ajit has only limited presence in Coastal, Mahyco has done badly, who is going to spring up and go past Jadoo in next season is his poser?
2). Maize - normal 20% growth expected for next year. Nobody could capitalise much on the Maize shift this year because of production seed damages. They can’t be as aggressive on maize as Cotton a) its a sensitive crop - needs good/early rains b) Cannot be stored beyond 6 months (upto 12-18 month after cob-drying). So carries higher inventory carry-over risks
3). Hybrid Rice - Same story as before, You can ignore all that hype. While there has been recent gains on slender rice notifications for 2 products, this has to be followed by success on the field. These have already been introduced last year - Registration helps in that others cannot copy/use the parental lines. Results so far are encouraging, it will be couple of years before they build up production volumes for commercialisation as there is more confidence of further field successes. Potential for next 2-3 years is good - can double form current 25-30 Cr Hybrid Rice levels (35-40 cr levels included Varietals rice)
Detailed Management Q&A transcript will follow in some time.
Thanks Donald. Kaveri did 61 lac pockets in q1 and assuming they would do a few lacs more in rest of the quarters, 70 lacs packets next year would sound like a low growth number.hope they get closer to the 80lacs figure. After the mgmt meet, did you get a feel of how the rest of the three quarters may pan out.could the numbers be significantly low compared to q2-q4 last year. This seems to be the major overhang on the stock.
Kaveri Results on 12 or 13 November . Rabi crops is also expected to be excellent in view of all reservoirs filled to the brim & record Monsoon .Any expectations ?
Meanwhile lot of debate is going on GM seeds. Is it a matter of time before these GM Seeds are accepted in India as well ? If so how large the opportunity size becomes for companies like Kaveri Seeds? is the co well equipped to deal with it ?
As they say size of the ponds ie. size of opportunity is more important then size of fish i.e small,mid or large cap cos??
Why is seeds a $ 40 billion opportunity abroad n only $1-2 billion in India?
Taking the cue from the previous post, it would appear that probably the seed companies like Advanta which are addressing the global market have a far bigger scale of opportunity as compared to Kaveri.
where one can look after history of trades by Funds (May be something like, weightage of Page in mentioned IDFC fund for last 10 quarters or more) , Morningstar only reports relative to last report … one of the thing I miss many times is inability to track if some fund building/reducing position in the stock gradually…Kenneth and few other guys are worth tracking what they are doing…atleast it gives a starting point to look further into story…