PAGE promoters have been selling shares since long time. They intend to bring their holding to 51%. They wonāt go below 51% as it would violate Jockey license agreement. People who stayed away due to this one issue have missed a massive ride. Many investors were so keen on promoter selling that Prabhakar Kudva asked those people to create a new thread 
In 2009, page promoters used to own 65% of the outstanding shares, when the stock was at 500 odds. Today, the stock is at around 4500 and they own around 57% shares. During this bull run, they have reduced their stock by 8%. They have been selling consistently and in small quantities. Earlier, people thought they would stop at 60%, now the new number is 51%.
extracts from brokerage report;
according to Ministry of Agriculture :
Cotton (basket) -Sowing area for kharif cotton crop in 2013-14 surged to 100.55 Lakh hectares from 83.74 LH in corresponding period last year.
**Maize **-Sowing area for kharif course cereal surged from 39.86 Lakh Hectares to 96.58 LH in 2013-14.
Higher planting of Maize in MH & KTK.
that is huge increase in area under Maize
Read an article in Times of India today about sowing being completed in 82% of the area under cultivation in Gujarat. Sowing for all the crops has increased significantly till July 4.The table below highlights the information mentioned in the article:
| Sowing till July 4 | % Increase | |||
| Crop | Total Area (lakh hectres) | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Cotton | 26.98 | 19.83 | 25.68 | 29.50% |
| Groundnut | 14.44 | 9.88 | 15.82 | 60.12% |
| Sesame | 1.58 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 155.56% |
| Castor | 7.39 | 0.22 | 1.26 | 472.73% |
| Soyabean | 0.86 | 0.53 | 0.87 | 64.15% |
| Vegetables | 2.2 | 1.09 | 1.5 | 37.61% |
| Millet | 4.01 | 1.65 | 2.63 | 59.39% |
| Maize | 4.01 | 2.87 | 3.28 | 14.29% |
| Fodder | 9.18 | 3.07 | 6.49 | 111.40% |
| Total (all crops) | 70.65 |
Hi,
Read this article in businessline about mechanised harvesting of cotton.
aNormally, around 4,000 plants are raised in one acre, but when one opts for machine plucking, the seed requirement is over six times this number at 25,000 plants"
This will be great driver for cotton seeds since acreage may not increase much going forward but labor issues will only increase. Will be interesting to see which company comes up with the best seeds for this if this actually becomes a realty.
Cheers
Vinod
Ć¢Normally,
**Six times increase in plants is not possible at all. At the most two times is possible. When the plants are fully grown after OCT/NOV there is very less space even at present rate of sowing. If they increase the no of plants, the yield per plant will drop. Also farmers are still not opting for machine plucking as currently China make machines are not good in quality. It would take 3-5 yrs before it will have significant usage. **
Hi Manish Bhai,
Thank you for the inputā¦coming from someone like you who has first hand experience, I would conclude that the Hindu Business line journo has not done his homework well 
There is a possibility that the plant itself is different which might allow more dense farmingā¦but 6 times looks far-fetched!
3-5 years is not that far. The seed will be significantly different for the new shorter plant? If mechanised harvesting indeed picks-up it will be a new battle among the seed companies.
Cheers
Vinod
Vinod, You bring up a very good point. It is a fact that farm labour is in short supply. MNREGA has changed the labour dynamics in the country. I have seen the impact of this shortage in North India. The levels of mechanisation is Punjab and Harayana have gone up considerably in the last few years.
For stock pickers like us, it is s great opportunity. There is no denying the fact that farm productivity has to increase in India to not only feed and clothe over a billion people but to also make it viable for the farmer.
Industries like seeds, pesticides, farm equipment are surely going to do very well in the next few years.
John Deere has expanded into developing countries seriously in the last few years. The stock has more than doubled in the last 5 yrs. In fact is a great proxy for the agriculture in developing markets.
Yes the plant will be different. Also they say that plant growth regulators to be sprayed to control the height and fruiting bodies. So the yield per plant will be reduced but due to dense farming, the net yield could be higher. Also fertiliser, water & insectiside requirement will be higher. Need to take all these factors into account and also the cost of regulator spray and the cost of machine. Labour shortage is very acute and that may lead to faster adaptation to the new mechanised methods. In fact I foresee a revolution in Mechanised farming which would increase the agri output for the increased demand. For that organised efforts are needed from the govt which is a big question.
Hi,
Tought of sharing this link as i felt it is relevant to the thread.
Hi Sharma,
You are right, agri sector is interestingly poised. Gov regulations/interventions are the biggest spoilers and enablers in this.
The best sub-segment would be seeds. Price sensitivity will be less as seed forms less than 20% of total cost of farming but is a very critical input because it decides, apart from the yield, the amount of other inputs like fertilizers, pesticides, water etc. There is R&D related moat for the best seed companies and there is less āreceivablesā in seed segment (infact there is negative working capital situation sometimes with advances from dealers and no subsidy to be collected from government).
The biggest issue with many players in farm equipment, irrigation systems etc is the receivables from the government and the uncertainties.
Cheers
Vinod
I have big concerns regarding the genetically modified seed business in the long run, especially in rice. After some searching I found that in developed countries (US, Europe, Japan), GM seeds are most commonly used in case of cotton, soya, corn. Majority of the GM seeds are used to grow either cotton or plants which are meant for cattle feed and not human consumption.
A news item like this one
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091091_gmowheat31xml.html
is a cause for concern for me. I myself would buy non genetically modified food, if given a choice.
I have absolutely no concerns about cotton/corn though.
As mentioned in this thread, the next growth trigger for Kaveri is Rice.
**Is there a single developed country where GM rice is very common? **
According to Wikipedia, US is a leading producer of GM crops and I dont see a mention of GM rice.
Japan, I have heard, has one of the highest yield per acre of rice. How do they manage it? Are GM hybrid seeds used or is there some other method? I am currently doing some search to find answers to these questions.
Disc: I have enjoyed the Kaveri run from 850 to 1250, exited because of competition/oversupply concerns, and have re-entered at 1650 because of the way these guys are beating the competition. I have given it 30%+ weightage in my portfolio.
Dear Amit,
Pls check weather the rice opportunity is in BT or just hybrid rice. Its already explained very well in this thread.
Cheers
Vinod
ah! i have read every single post of this thread, but I seem to have missed something important.
Hi,
Just an observation on the share holding pattern as given in moneycontrol.
FII stake has gone up from 3.7% in Sep 2012 to 7.5% in June 2013.
Cheers
Vinod
aug 14 is the last date for the Q1 results as per sebi. kaveri hasnt given the notice yet, most likely it will be on 14th (13 is not auspicious and 15 is holiday). agm may be in september before ganesh pooja
I sold off completely looking at selling by insiders including spokesperson mithun chand.
Hi,
I do not think promoters will sell less than 2 weeks before the results if they knew the results were bad. It would completely ruin their credibility and make them candidates for insider trading investigation.
This is the time conviction levels will be testedā¦interesting phaseā¦great to observe how different investors behave in such scenarios. It will be good if many more expressed their views and revealed their actions.
I am staying put and continue to believe the fundamentals of the company are strong.
Cheers
Vinod
Hi,
I had started buying Kaveri in small quantities for the past few months after reading the posts and conviction at Valuepickrs. Also the scuttlebutt was great. I feel we should not get carried away by these sellings (small as compared to %age holdings). As Vinod MS rightly pointed out, it will definitely make the promoters a candidate for inside trading probe.
Have observed the pattern of selling by promoters for the past 2 years, they have consistently sold in small quantities just 2 or 3 weeks before the results. The only problem which I can see with Kaveri would some hidden skeletons, like padded up results or some hidden debts ( it being a Hyderabad based company) on which we cannot have any control.
It is currently almost 10 % of my porfolio. Need your advise.
Hi,
I added more today in small quantities to average out my prices. I was a late entrant in Kaveri. Had started buying around 1610. I think even if the results of this quarter are not that great (the probability is pretty less given the scuttlebutt done by Team Hyderabad, good Monsoon and other reports in news paper about sales of seeds), it can still be a good long term story.
Regards,
Ankit
Dis: Its around 15% of my portfolio
