Jupiter Wagons Ltd (previously CEBBCO)

Arun,

There are various benefits of going with organized players than unorganized ones. These are the factors shifting towards FBVs
as per report from Centrum:

1). Funding on FBV vs. only chassis: When a transporter procures only chassis from a dealer, the
funding is restricted to the chassis cost. However, if he procures an FBV from the dealer, the funding
is on Chassis + body. Typically on chassis of Rs. 1mn, body building would cost Rs0.2mn. Hence the
transporter gets full funding on FBV (Rs.1.2mn) compared to Rs 1mn on chassis.

2). Reduction in lead time and higher return on Investment (ROI): Compared to local garages which
typically take 1.5-2months for the delivery of FBVs, those procured directly from OEMs could be put
to use immediately. As a result, the customer need not wait and can immediately start paying his
EMIs after procuring the FBV.

3). Warranty of 18 months on the FBVs: Against the local garages, FBVs come with an 18-month
warranty and most organized body builders have 24x7 customer helplines.

4). Excise duty benefit on the FBV higher than for chassis: In budget 2003, to encourage fabrication
by organized players, excise rules of the Government permitted only organized body builders to
offset their excise liability to the extent of the excise already paid by OEMs on the chassis sent to the
body builders for construction of the superstructure. Further, in addition, as per the Budget 2012-13,
chassis will attract 14% excise duty whereas FBV will only attract only 12%. This move will incentivize
purchase of fully built vehicles.

These indicate that unorganized players are at a disadvantage than organized players for FBVs.

Tata as % of share has been going down and H1FY13, this had come down to 41% from 51% in FY12 and 59% in FY11. This is indicated in Centrum report.

The FY12 AR indicates that OEMs themselves push FBV than chassis. Hence don’t think that the point about need for institutionalizing sales here is needed from sectors as this is driven by OEMs. This is logical as poor FBV from garage reflects on OEM quality.

**If FBV market and penetration is not growing then there would be a very little case for investment here. It is a cyclical which is free from MHCV sales for now - Tata MHCV for Dec qtr has gone down by ~50% and in that light their Dec. numbers were decent.
**
The train business is obviously not immediate and will take time to pick up. The point is that while the train business builds the capacity built can be used for FBVs as they are doing currently. They currently do have an order of 250 rakes from Stone India Intermodal which will come in a few quarters. Here also the Government has need of 25k wagons whereas they are ordering around 12-13k so there is an opportunity here.

Agree that the next couple of quarters will make things clearer.

I would compare this to a situation like polyfilms a couple of years back where there was an under supply and hence benefited the sector.

Thanks Saurabh

I think its a case of same information being interpreted differently by both of us :).

I will be happy if I turned out to be wrong. Anyhow initiated some days back a starter position so that can track it more closely and with some interest…

@Akbar Khan: One can check the equity structure/bonus etc by looking at corporate actions. Capitalmarket gives a brief summary for several years…so I use that.

Somebody told me that CEBBCO had booked/faked order book (from Tata Motors) during the time of IPO…if true then plz be careful

Ayush

I am not sure, they could book a fake order. They have directors from Tata Motors and Tata Capital on their board ( Excerpt from their FY2012 annual report - Mr. Sevantilal Popatlal Shah (Retired General Sales Manager, Tata Motors Limited), Mr. Akhil Awasthi (Nominee Director from Tata Capital). Also Deloitte is the auditor.

Until recently, CEBBCO was in the market for an equity raise that did not happen. Possibly the brokers trying to raise the stock price might have sold the shares in the market. The entire CV market is going through challenges (WABCO is at historic lows), so CEBBCO would not be spared either.

If we look at numbers alone, in the last 12 months, the company has PAT of 60 cr, current market cap is 204 cr. so the stock is trading at a multiple of 4x. This is half of its historic multiples.

Disclaimer - have taken a starter position in the stock at 37.5

Finally market speculation proved correct. Ajay Gupta [Son-in-law] of Kailash Gupta, Chairman cum Managing director has resigned, see news herehttp://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=957f43c5-4358-46e0-b780-f3d84171d320. What’s more disturbing is that as per filing, Ajay Gupta has resigned on 26th March and company is informing investors now. Yesterday in the filing, company confirmed that Ajay Gupta has transferred his entire shareholding to Kailiash Gupta as GIFT [YOU BELIEVE THAT…]. Just couple of months, Ajay Gupta was on call saying allrumorsof his resignation are wrong…

Not only this even the nominee director of PE fund [Tata capital] which holds more than 10% had resigned in mid-March itself. PE nominee generally resigned so that PE fund can dilute their stake, otherwise they can be accused of insider trading.

What caught my eye is that even internal auditor was changed and as per some news their PR company has already resigned…

Taking all this facts together I am forced to SPECULATE that their is some BIG ISSUE. So learning is market is mostly right in short term…

Those who want to invest further, should wait till their annual report is released and should invest only after going through it…

Disc: hold only starter position.

From the announcements, it seems there is some serious financial fraud. Most likely perpetuated under Ajay Gupta and supported by the erstwhile internal auditors. However the extent of the fraud may only be available post full year results.

Appointing a new CEO, with new internal auditors may be a step in the right direction.Mr. Deepak Tiwary has been appointed as Chief Executive Officer of the Company by the Board of Directors. Linked in profile :http://ae.linkedin.com/pub/deepak-tiwary/1b/1b6/137

Tata Group still held the 60.05 lakhs shares (10.93% stake) as per the shareholding pattern posted on 31st March, 2013. What’s baffling is the resignation by the Tata group nominee director was filed on 18th March, 2013. And the approval was deliberately delayed to report the above SHP on 31st March, 2013. Most likely post this approval on 25th April, the Tata Group will also sell their stake.

SHP 31st March:http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/ShareholdingPattern.aspx?scripcd=533272&flag_qtr=1&qtrid=77.00&Flag=New

As per the disclosure on 23rd Apil (http://www.moneycontrol.com/livefeed_pdf/Apr2013/Commercial_Engineers_&_Body_Builders_Co_Ltd_230413_SAST.pdf)

Ajay Gupta only transferred 12.15% of his 20.53% stake to current father-in-law MD Kailash Gupta.

It should be a strong AVOID for any new investments from here on.

Disc: existing long positions, will wait for Q4 results and AR 2013 before taking the final call.

Do you expect them to report facts in the AR.

Apparently Ajay Gupta is not the only culprit, the Board itself is involved in unethical practices - not disclosing resignation of MD and director.

No Manish, NO ONE will dare to accept fraud or any wrong doing… But I expect enough clues in notes to account to take better call …

Hi,

Does anyone know story in CEBBCO…why it fell sharply after many Buy Recommendations in early 2012.

Some says AJAY GUPTA. Actually Ajay Gupta is Son In Law of owner and very much in the organisation, he gifted his shares holding to his FIL Kailash Gupta, for some special family arrangement and not due to any conflict. They had shot view from SEBI too that such transfer will attract any Takeover and open offer cluase or not and as per SEBI it should attract. Now Ajay Gupta has transfered his whole holding to Kailash Gupta in early June 2013 and there should be an open offer.

I feel company has good business and support of OEMs and share can prove a multibagger at 13.71 today close.

I will appreciate views from my learned friends on Value Pickr

Jerry

CEEBCO is another case of glorified fraud perpetuated by Ajay Gupta. All brokerages painted a rosy picture and came out with one strong reco after another. Coupled with the doldrums of HCV/MCV sector and huge fraud company faced huge losses in the last quarter.

To put things into perspective it lost 60 Cr in last 3 quarters while FY09 to FY12 total profits amount to 68 Cr. The father in law Kailash Gupta tried to recover the pledged shares, forced Ajay to “gift” his stake to him. Off late company is trying to survive, but given the magnitude of fraud and pathetic macro scenario it’s difficult to tell whether this would survive or not.

Price movement and chart pattern show CEBBCO is readying for big upside…recently Kailash Gupta left chairman`s post and a few new directors has been appointed who has been in TATA group …something is cooking and i feel by the time public will come to know stock price will zoom above 50 or near 100.

If anybody can give some insight pls…respond

Thanks @bheeshma for pointing me to this thread to figure out the perils of equity dilution (You had posted on the Cerebra thread a few months back). I just went through this whole thread and the posts by Ayush and the subsequent discussions with Donald were an eyeopener. Sorry if I am bumping up a very old thread but I felt the urge to thank.

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One pager on Jupiter Wagons

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JWL Q2FY23 concall highlights

  1. The company has placed an order of 20,000 wheel sets on foreign buyers. This move will help to reduce the dependency on Indian railways. i.e improvement in working capital cycle.
  2. Supplied more than 860 wagons in this quarter to Indian railways. Going ahead, company expects the number to improve further.
  3. CV business to remain stronger due to huge demand from OEMs.
  4. JWL supplied container to GE India and DP world (world leader in global supply chain solutions). GE exported container out of India for the first time.
  5. The company’s plant for brake business has been certified by Indian railways and it will be operational by Jan or Feb’23. Expects substantial order from railways in subsequent quarters. Moreover, company has also participated in tenders of 40,000 brake discs.
  6. Shortlisted for acquisition of Stone India (railroad equipment supplier) by CoC (Commitee of Creditors) .
  7. EV in CV segment will be launched in Q1FY24.The company believes that this move will be the game changer as more CV’s are run on roads compare to PV’s and this will reduce the fossil fuel consumption. Focusing upto 12 tons axle load vehicles in EV.
  8. JWL has a order book of 4000 cr and they have added another 500 cr order book in Q2FY23.
  9. The split of order book between railways and private sector is 50:50 and further increase of orders from private sector will increase the EBITDA margins.
  10. Lastly, on industry front, revenue visibility for Industry has been increased because initially there were annual contracts by Indian railways, but now IR is coming with two-three years contracts. This move will help Industry and JWL to plan a better roadmap ahead.
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The stock is in lower circuit since last 3 days despite positive announcements in budget… Could anyone throw some light on this please. Thanks.

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Its under ASM framework… It might take maximum 2 weeks to come out of it.

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But what is the reason for this? Please update if you have any information. Thanks

As was notified that the investor meet is ongoing by Jupiter Wagon. Apparently, companies have the power to halt trading to bring down the prices to a level favorable to the investors to make an entry. They released a notice related to it. Hence this happened. Hoping for it to go up again at the earlier pace.

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Result expectations for Q4 FY 23

Assumption is that a wagon price is 0.35cr and remains constant.

  • Q2 FY 23
    • Wagons sold - 860+, revenue contribution = 860*0.4 = 301cr (source valuepickr)
    • Revenue - 417cr, non wagon revenue ~ 118cr
  • Q3 FY 23
    • Wagons sold - 1425 = 1425*0.4 = 498 ceiling (Feb concall)
    • Revenue - 644, non wagon revenue ~ 146cr
      • Management mentioned that container business was out of focus as next quarter should see numbers coming back for container business as well.
  • Q4 FY 23 Expectation with Wagon price at 0.35cr
    • Wagons sold are in the range of 500 to 600 per month with 600+ in March (April concall). I am assuming ~1700 wagons, revenue contribution = 1700*0.35 = 595cr
    • Expected revenue - easily 750+, QoQ jump of 16%+.
      • Brake disc commercial production has also started.
  • Q4 FY 23 Expectation with Wagon price at 0.4cr.
    • Mr Lohia mentioned that avg value is above 40 lakh.
    • Doing similar calculation with new wagon price the revenue expectation cross 830cr+.

On a very rough calculation the company is trading roughly at ~20x FY24 EPS and ROCE of 30%+ if margins stay at 13%. Management has guided that margins will improve further as they have started production in house brake discs.

Disc: 1% position, looking to add more before the results.

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I will humbly accept that my above calculation was a bit too optimistic.
Although looking back at it I believe either the average selling price of wagon < 0.4cr or avg number of wagons sold per month 550.

Disc: 2% of portfolio, will reduce to 1% until the concall