Too high valuations and the theme had kinda played out plus needed to build cash as market corrections were also expected. I exited in August when Nifty was around 25k.
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Analysis and Valuation of Jash Engineering
Do let me know if any improvements are needed or you want to go through the calculation of DCF.
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Looking at the order inflow of October & November and how the order book has changed during these 2 months, seems very likely that Q3 will be yet again a blockbuster quarter & this FY the company will end up with a top line close to 700-720 Cr implying a revenue growth of upwards of 35% exceeding the guidance given earlier. Also, In all likelihood the PAT should also end up at 95-105 Cr.
Disc- Invested & Biased
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Good to see the likes of Nine Rivers Capital Holdings (Sandeep Daga), Taksh Asset Management (Jinesh Gopani ex Axis MF), Nuvama Wealth and Niveshaay Investment Management line up for a plant visit on the 20th!
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Some insider selling
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Any update on this visit?
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Jash engg : Meeting Helios Capital - One of the better Flexi MFs going around
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Lots of meetings around the time when results are poised to be very good. Will be interesting to see their order book closure in Dec.
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Interesting presentation by the company for a conference on 11th Jan. The presentation gives a glimpse of TAM/ Business opportunity for their products specifically in India. It also states that the company is targeting a revenue of 2000 crores by 2035. Looks highly probable but directionally tells what the company is looking at.
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2000 crores in 10 years literally means cagr of around 12pc for the top line. Will market be satisfied with that sort of growth.?
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Thanks for sharing the deck, but the opportunity discussed in the presentation looks like for India only…
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Hi, had only posted the deck because it highlighted opportunity for their business in India. You are right about the 12% cagr calculation but taking that long a view can sometimes be counterproductive as an investor.
How I see their business is that they might reach their 1000 crores revenue before FY29 as they’ve been guiding.
The management is known to be conservative & what I feel is that they’ve put a nice ring at 2000 cr which should be fairly easy for them to achieve.
This is my opinion & in long term things can be very uncertain.
But as a business they are on a solid footing & have made some very good moves in terms of acquisitions & geographical expansion & tailwinds in the sector should help them exceed their guided numbers.
Note: Invested & biased.
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good update by jash , any idea how much of this order book can contribute to the revenues of FY25 or 26?
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A very robust order Flow of 80 Cr in December takes closing order book to 924 crores. Should be a very good quarter for the company. Also good to see that even execution seems to be there & the book isn’t piling up. Q3 & Q4 can end up with 460+ cr easily on top line front easily & FY 25 should close at somewhere around 720+ crores. A landmark year in terms
of performance. Also with added capacity & opportunity growing, looks highly probable that 1000 crores revenue could be realised before they are targeting.
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Indeed the coming quarter numbers will reflect the growth. As you mentioned the best thing is the order book is not pilling up.
My only concern is reducing promoter shareholding.
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a layman doubt, how to we know that the order book is not just pilling up ?
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Hi, not a clear cut answer but a rough estimate. Jash releases its order book every month in which orders added are given.
So one can estimate revenue realisation from last opening to closing with new orders added. There’ll be some deviation.
Why I said not piling and perhaps I should have been more careful with my choice of words is that looking at capacity of Jash( it’s not a normal manufacturing company in terms of capacity utilisation etc) it seems that while they have received good amount of orders they’ve also done revenue of 200+ Cr this quarter.
The official numbers will make it clearer. Also it might be the case that they end up somewhere closer to their previous year Q4 numbers somewhere around 210- 220Cr top line.
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