What targets do you have in mind?
Copy paste of a message recieved by me wrt Suzlon…
Suzlon takes AMC contracts of its installtions too…at the rate of around 10Lakhs per MW… And it has a 100% track record… Every turbine sold by it in India is under its Service Fold.
As the number of wind turbines installed increases, the AMC charges too increase proportionately…
The AMC revenue in Sept Qrtr was 412 cr or 15% of revenue…400 cr was AMC in June Qrtr…
This AMC Model will shield it from any slowdown in Wind Power Capex in the Country…
Suzlon has a manufacturing capacity of 3600mw…and if every year it adds around 2000mw (much less than Tusi Tanti target of 15000 mw in 5 years)…even then around 200 to 250 crores of AMC revenue will get added every year…(with a lag of 1 year during which suzlon provifes for free maintenance)
Another 1000 cr addition to AMC will take care of Entire Fixed Costs of Suzlon…
It is estimated that the eps of suzlon in the next 2-3 years will rise to 3-4 rupees range…even witj a mofest p/ e of 15…suzlon is a potential mutibagger…
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Thanks.Do we know the profit margin on AMCs pl. That will determine
contribution to bottom line and hence to EPS
It was a forward of a message on suzlon that I received. …but i think after a critical limit, any increase in AMC revenue will add directly to the Eps…the fixed costs of suzlon cannot increase without limits…atleast in the initial years
By technical analysis, at what levels we can enter in to this stock?
after looking at the title of this thread something triggered in my head. A post i had read a long time back. So i re-read it as i have made it a habit to re-read many of the posts on his exceptional blog. I think it would be useful if you guys also find some time to go through it. Hint - Suzie = Suzlon 
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a good read…it seems that there was a wind energy bubble blowout in 1997…and then in 2008. If the same pattern gets repeated then there may be one more bubble in renewable energy space…as of now, this is music to the ears of those invested in Suzlon…it indicates to them that the valuations of suzlon which are now at rock bottom and the company is @ just 30% of the installed capacity, will once again fly to skies…Jai ho…
Now all we have to do is remember the fundoo professor when the valuations of suzlon are stratospheric…and make a technical exit then…Till then, just hold with optimism.
so far we were relying on our analysis of technical and fundamentals of Suzlon …now we have assurance from Tulsi tanti that share holders will reap benefits from next year onwards…i.e in FY 2018…The Suzlon story is getting better and better and I am liking it…
I will wait for the month to end and then post the monthly chart for the benefit of investors. Only thing that I can say is that the stock has clearly turned around and those who bought below 15.60 can feel happy that they have timed the bottom correctly…a good thing when you consider the tremendous loss that Suzlon has inflicted on investors in the past 6-7 years…
Correctly timing the bottom of a stock which has been in the downtrend since last 7 years and which is turning around…Is a thing of beauty. Enjoy it.
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Read this article
Capital Allocation mistakes & plans for next decade. Free cash will go towards debt repayment.
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Renewable energy firm Suzlon Group said its arm Suzlon Global Services (SGSL) has received provisional credit rating of ‘A-’ with stable outlook from CARE.
“The rating has been assigned for its proposed long term and short term bank facilities. CARE ‘A’ ratings are considered to have adequate degree of safety regarding timely servicing of financial obligations, carrying low credit risk,” it said in a BSE filing.
http://m.moneycontrol.com/news/business/care-assigns-arating-to-suzlon-global-services_8360621.html
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Industry Veteran views on Renewable sector.
"Renewable is so highly priced that the implementation will not be as much as is being spoken about. And therefore L&T stays away. "
AM Naik doesn’t expect large orders in the renewable sector. He is also pessimistic on Power sector as a whole.
AM Naik, executive chairman, Larsen & Toubro
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What is he comparing against? Setting up a new thermal power plant v/s setting up a similar capacity wind farm?
He is pessimist about thermal sector and comparing renewable vs renewable.
I don’t understand. He is saying renewables are too highly priced against renewables? If yes, then which two renewables is he comparing? Also, if he is negative on thermal which is highest capacity in India then he has to be optimistic on some other source. Country does need power to grow. Can you share the link please?
Cheers,
Amit
This is too generic. Renewables can be anything from Wind to Solar to Hydel. Thermal is going down is a fact. Overall, nothing to be worried about. If Wind is down, its all in the price. Suzlon trading at a billion dollar captures all the pessimism. Biggest Thermal company NTPC is at 20 billion.
Has your views changed on Suzlon ? I think the promoter is still the same. It has still not started on a big move…Focus is more on hybrid deployment Solar and Wind.
Disc : Current allocation is 1.2 ℅ of portfolio now due to positive move in other stocks. But this is more of a renewable sector tracker for me. I will hold it as long as I could.
Hi @Mehnazfatima,
Its good to see your combination of technical + fundamentals. I have also been looking at Suzlon given the major debt reduction and finally good performance in the recent quarters (especially the Q2FY17). The investor presentation is also useful and the company seems confident on maintaining good growth. Looking forward to Q3FY17 results of Suzlon so see if the profitability can be maintained.
One macro concern is that solar is gaining a lot of momentum and might prove to be a better model than wind. I’m concerned if the wind industry can continue to grow that way it has grown in past given the increasing adoption of solar power.
Regards,
Ayush
Disc: Have initial positions
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