I have had an opportunity to grasp on exceptionally excellent quality information about Suzlon here. Hats off to you all and I must say you all have covered Macro/Micro, Local/World level prospects including but not limited to Fundamental/Technical analysis and future possibilities. Latest information provided by all once again emphasizes that present government policy/s working in the direction of warding off cheap foreign competition in case of Suzlon. Going through the research reports I felt most reports give a pass to year 2019-20 and I considered this year as crucial as FCCB gets closed here and tried to work on it.
SUZLON: A real investment case? May be not so soon yet…
My rough calculation with many assumptions (debatable) has given me;
Equity capital:
Rs Cr FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Paid up share capital 1004.88 1,025.59 1,046.31 1,198.08
#of shares 502.44 512.79 523.16 599.04
Revenue, Net Profit, EPS, PE:
Rs Cr FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Revenue 12,803.19 13,918.28 14,691.52 15,492.21
NP 599.79 621.71 711.71 851.71
EPS 1.19 1.21 1.36 1.42
PE @ 20/share price 16.75 16.50 14.70 14.07
Note: EPS Rs.1.19 is direct effect of consolidated NP published by Suzlon. (PE @20/share price)
Balance sheet:
Sales/Revenue Estimates:
Rs Cr FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
MW sales 1573 1800 2000 2220
Rs Cr/MW 8.14 7.73 7.35 6.98
Downward Y-o-Y revenue factor used to factor in technological advancements and recent lower bid patters. Rs Cr/MW is direct division of 2017 revenue by 1,573 (without any other considerations).
Conculsion: Considering the numbers outcome as above, I personally feel Suzlon will continue to carry over the burden of debt pas 2020. PE too is not improving too soon in this case. However exponential growth may alter the situation within few years.
Few other positive notes from web sources are below:
https://www.ft.com/content/44ed7e90-3960-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
Bill Gates Advises College Graduates on Today’s Most Promising Careers
"AI, energy and biosciences are promising fields where you can make a huge impact," he wrote. Earlier this year, Gates—who famously dropped out of Harvard to found Microsoft—said that artificial intelligence had “phenomenal” potential, and “anything connected with that would be an exciting lifetime career.” In the same speech at Columbia University, he said there is a huge growing demand in the energy sector to develop “reliable, cheap, and clean” energy. Similarly, developments in biotech were moving “faster than ever,” he said, with a need for innovation to combat diseases such as cancer and obesity, and developing vaccines.
Disclosure: Tracking but not invested yet
By the way, this is my first post after joining couple of days back. Comments are much appreciated.
Note: I have created pdf however can’t upload here as this is my first post. (No complains here).