ValuePickr Forum

Is Suzlon a turnaround story after FY16

Note - this post is purely for educational purposes and a followup of my previous post. I am not invested in Suzlon

Suzlon is turning out to be a candlestick chartist dream come true. After forming a bearish evening star it has formed a harami.

Harami is japanese for pregnant. This pattern consists of a white/black body and a small white/black body that is completely inside the range of the white/black body. If an outline is drawn for the pattern, it looks like a pregnant woman. The color doesnt matter in harami patterns. What matters is where the price break is after the pattern is formed.

Since the pattern has formed near its 2 mth uptrend and the harami has been preceded by an evening star i am inclined to believe that the break will be downward.

Lets see what happens tomorrow and learn from it!

The chart for your reference - views are invited

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I can’t say I understand candlestick patterns much but if you go by simple price-action, doesn’t today’s candle simply reject yesterday’s? Yesterday’s open was 20.10 and close was 19.80, low was 19.75 - bears won. But today, open was 19.90 (rejecting yesterday low and also yesterday’s close), low was at 19.80 (higher low and same as yesterday’s close) and close was at 20.00 - bulls won. This close is higher than both last two candle’s close. I don’t see how you are calling this as a breakdown from the uptrend. If anything, it should be trend continuation going by simple logic? What am I missing?

I am not calling it a breakdown but a sign of an impending one. In candlesticks a harami gives “birth” to a new trend

In my humble opinion…Today’s harami nullifies the bearish effect of yesterday’s long red candlestick. We are now back to neutral zone. The stock can now move up or down or sideways.

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I guess this harami is on daily charts so the triangle breakout we got on monthly charts remains very much in play.

Well investors in suzlon need not worry. The candlestick pattern has failed. Failed bearish patterns are more bullish than bullish patterns themselves ( and failed bullish patterns are more bearish than bearish ones ).

Investors would be well advised to keep one basic rule in mind - its not what the prices do that matters, its what they do after they dont. So always wait for a break.

DLF Ltd is a good example of this where i saved myself a lot of monetary pain simply by waiting for a break.

Also i cant underline enough the importance of having a bearish mindset in a bullish market.

The mind sees what it wants to see in pattern recognition. While tracking prices in a stock moving in an uptrend i actively look for bearish signals to the point of obsession and i completely disregard the bullish ones. I have found that it is a realistic & a rational way to look at prices and leads to making fewer mistakes. If the stock is in a real uptrend there will be a lot of dead bearish patterns.

In general however, i love bearishness in TA. Anything that has the potential to make you lose money should be an object of your attention.

Disc- invested

All the best
Bheeshma

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Rising wedge breakout in progress.

Vice versa too. Its the bullishness (contrarian bet) in a bearish stock that makes real money. Probably its time for you too to take a small position in Suzlon :slight_smile:

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Suzlon sees wind energy auctions squeezing margins as market grows

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Rational exuberance is in the air

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/specials/clean-tech/rational-exuberance-is-in-the-air/article9689223.ece

Suzlon renews 399-MW U.S. wind service portfolio

Suzlon Wind Energy Corp (SWECO)
announced a long-term renewal of a 399-MW wind portfolio that consists
of four sites in three U.S. states for the Suzlon S88 turbine
technology.
According to SWECO, the O&M contracts were renewed in January
2017 for a period of six years with EDP Renewables North America (EDPR). The project names were not released.
“We were pleased to renew these contracts with Suzlon and are looking
forward to a continued partnership, delivering consistent performance
at those projects,” said Gabriel Alonso, EDPR NA CEO.

Source: http://www.windpowerengineering.com/slider/suzlon-renews-399-mw-u-s-wind-service-portfolio/

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Came across very good article on current state of affairs in Wind energy as well solar industry. Not good news for renewables

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Solar power generation tariffs dropping at a fast pace

Margins dropping with volumes increasing is not bad for the sector. We cannot afford to depend on fossil fuel imports for our energy needs forever. Renewables make us self-sustaining and will reduce our import bills and our deficits. We are doing this while providing jobs within the country (especially Wind). Why won’t this be sustainable? What’s not sustainable is relying on crude and coal.

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This keeps on reminding me of madness in bidding and winner’s curse (an article link has also been shared by someone above)

What Adani, Tata did in UMPP bidding and then were seeking compensatory tariff.
If the bidders are not factoring in black swan events n projects become un-viable, it can lead to financial disasters and who loses? Well, the banks, financers apart from the company itself.

Have a look at the daily chart of Suzlon…the stock is under bollinger band squeeze while the short term momentum indicator has turned up…looks like there will be a rally in Suzlon in the near term…maybe a modest rally…or maybe a big rally…

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Actis-backed Ostro buying string of solar projects from Suzlon for $150 mn

Ostro Energy Pvt. Ltd, the renewable energy platform set up by private equity firm Actis, is set to acquire several solar projects from Suzlon Energy Ltd, one of India’s largest wind-turbine makers, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told VCCircle.

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By executing solar power projects successfully…suzlon will be the only company to be positioned for maximum benefit…as and when the draft wind + solar hybrid policy is finalized by the ministry…

As of now…players are either specialized in wind or solar…only suzlon is developing dual expertise…

Imho…finalization of hybrid wind + solar policy is just a matter of time…

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@Mehnazfatima
Inox wind results were not great. Since number of players in this sector is limited, is it a positive indicator for Suzlon?
Suzlon results are expected next Friday.
Please advice.