At the right price, everything is investable, even Ukraine. The sensex is selling at a PE of 25, so a yield of 4%, add 4-5% of growth and you get 8-9%, on average.
The Hang Seng is selling at a PE of 8, so a yield of 12.5%, add a few percentage points of growth and you are at 15%! Something like Alibaba has a market cap of $180 Billion, they have 50B cash and a FCF of about 20B, so you can get it a FCF yield of 6 - if that’s not value, I dont know what is. Plus the FCF is growing.
Of course, there are risks, but I dont care too much about a US or China recession. These things will happen at some point and they are difficult to predict! And recessions today are global because of interdependency.
If there is war between China and Taiwan, stocks are the last thing to worry about becuase the world will go to hell in a handbasket. People also say, oh chinese demographics are poor. Well, their population is similar to India’s and women’s labor force participation is 60+% compared to India’s around 25%. They will have enough workers for a long time.
With a GDP/capita of $12k compared to India’s of 2.5k, people have got a taste of the good life. Whatever political purges that might happen, China is not going back to Mao’s era.
Also, not to forget, China is about 20% of global GDP and approximately 50% of all Copper is consumed there. If you look beyond the noise, things in China are ok, bit of a slowdown, nothing else. When China is truly in a recession, I expect Copper to sell at $3, perhaps even $2.5 - we are far from there.