Hi, Got a basic question
From the above two images
Realisation has been coming down which is negative
Exports have also been coming down. The period mentioned in before the Corona breakout
Am I reading the images correctly if true this is a negative for IOLCP right?
Can someone throw some light on this.
Disclaimer : Invested
One needs to look at the long term trends.
Prices have shot up by more than 50% in the last couple of years because of which IOL has benefitted immensely since they have backward integration. So net-net not much of an increase in cost but huge increase in profit margins. But coming to your concern, there was softening of prices but in a recent interview the CEO mentions that it has shot up again. However, domestic contracts are long term and will have no impact. But we could see some impact in the exports(20% increase in margins) for a quarter or so. Apart from that, he also mentioned that the number of enquiries have shot up during Corona impact in China which could further pump up the revenue in the next couple of quarters. But the biggest concern for most of us is will prices soften even further to reach 750-800 and if so when?
Disclosure: Invested
Thanks @Inimitable_Investor, the above chart makes sense and yes the softening of the Ibuprofen prices will dampen the run way of IOLCP, but at the current demand-supply with limited players in the market, I sense a decent runway for them in the near term.
We need to closely watch the price movement of Ibuprofen to take entry/exit calls.
Thanks a lot Jaman bro-----do we know, when is the earliest this data is being updatedâŚI mean is it one or tow month after the quarter completion? I am more interested to see March data, but i think we need to wait for that because even Feb data is not available on this chart and today is April 19âŚso i think its quite a lag-----more than 2 months-----if this is how the lag, then surely we will be lagging behind and by the time we get to know about softening of price, biggies will already be left and stock would be coming downâŚi think, we need the the data at least within one month----like in April 2nd half, we should get data till March, then only we will be able to take right decision at right timeâŚ
If anyone has any idea about getting this data within one month, please let us know the source----this is most important data point for the stock----
Having said that, with expansion bringing revenue to the tune of 400 crore plus in FY21, with good margin, personally I am fine from 12 months perspective. But, its always good to cross check the data in a real time manner.
Thanks all for your contribution, lets us continue the efforts!!!
Disc -invested.
Dear Hafizul,screener is giving upto Feb only. What you are thinking is absolutely right.
Phreakonomics is also giving import/export data of the companies,but not also current data. I am also not getting ibuprofane from the phreakonomics.in
Did you get Feb also? if yes, pls shareâŚin the screen shot i can see till JanâŚ
No I did not get Feb.data.
Could it be helpful? I was searching price of Ibuprofane,and India MART is showing this.
Thanks----this is domestic price , which company does not increase as Govt might punish------we need export price, where company sales at international market price, which has increased and volume has also increased as per Joint MD----we need data to verify the same.
I agree nothing wrong in that, but from 90 post to 235 post, IOL Chem has come a long way.
It is now Debt Free Co, the expansion is made, new drug has been introduced, new FDA from Hungary has been approved, Dividend has been declaredâŚCapacity of manufacturing has been increased, in One interview, MD said, they have ear marked 150 Cr every year for expansion and R&D. what else one want!
ibuprofen caution raised earlier, now taken offâŚthis may increase the demand of ibuprofenâŚ!!!
I have been tracking this company and this thread for a while and you guys have made some great observations.
I believe we are starting to see quite a few positives but its not being factored into the price, purely due to the following uncertainties:
- Company wasnât paying dividends until recently
- Uncertainty around sustainability of earnings growth
- Promoter holdings are low and not increasing even at such low valuations.
- Bulk of the revenues mainly are concentrated on Ibuprofen and Ethyl acetate. The market hasnât seen the revenues from diversification (new APIâs) just yet.
On the brighter side, they have reduced debt considerably which tells me that the company is on the right track.
One important factor we may be over looking:
In the aftermath of covid, US could be reluctant to import drugs from China, and therein lies an opportunity for further market share for IOL.
By the time BASFâs production is in full swing, IOL would probably have a wider portfolio contributing to the top line, thereby reducing the concentration risk.
Disclosure: Tracking; Not yet invested
@ Gautam, In March 2020 Company has paid dividend, and debt has been reduced almost to zero. Promoter increased their stack in last FY by 0.6.
@gautam0597 warrants were issued to the promoters for Rs 50 crores (for the new plant). If the warrants are converted, the promotersâ stake will go up by 4.9%. Promotersâ holding will be 43.69.
It is definitely good a news for the company,and for its stock price.
Star export house is an Indian exporter who has excelled in international trade and successfully achieved a certain minimum amount of export performance in two out of three financial years. To obtain star export house status, the exporter involved in the export of goods or services must have a valid [import export code (IE Code). On being recognized as a star export house, the exporter enjoys various benefits and privileges as under:
- Authorization and customs clearance for both imports and exports may be allowed on a self-declaration basis.
- Exemption from the furnishing of bank guarantee for Schemes under Foreign Trade Promotion, unless specified otherwise.
- Input-output norms may be fixed on priority within 60 days by the Norms Committee.
- Exemption from compulsory negotiation of documents through banks. Remittance or receipts should, however, be received through banking channels.
- Two-star and above export houses are permitted to establish export warehouses as per the Department of Revenue guidelines.
- Three-star and above export houses are permitted to get benefits of Accredited Clients Programme, as per the guidelines of the Central Board of Excise and Customs.
- Status holders would be entitled to preferential and priority treatment while handling of consignments by concerned agencies.
- Status holders are eligible to export freely exportable items on free of cost basis for export promotion subject to an annual limit of Rs.10 lakhs or 2% of average annual export realization during preceding three licensing years, whichever is higher.
- Exporters involved in manufacturing would be eligible to self-certify their goods as origination from India.
Export House Status Eligibility Criteria
Based on the export performance of an exporter, the status category is provided as follows:
- One Star Export House : USD3 â USD25 Million Export Performance
- Two Star Export House : USD25 â USD100 Million Export Performance
- Three Star Export House : USD100 â USD500 Million Export Performance
- Four Star Export House : USD500 â USD2000 Million Export Performance
- Five Star Export House : USD2000 Million and above Export Performance
For granting export house status, export performance is necessary for at least two out of three years.
Source: https://www.indiafilings.com/
Disc: Invested