both points are a bingo on current affairs of AI….Client has no clue on actual capabilities and benefits, but they want it….service providers are as clueless as ever but they need to have & provide it….
with time either real benefits emerge, if yes it will be win win for clients, IT services and AI companies …..and if not then it will be win win for Clients and IT services as they will return to a little closer to business as usual but with improved undestanding of each other and renewed partnership vigour by sailing clueless times together….and the clueless AI push will normalize when all realise that no one is behind in any race and the race is not a sprint that you can cluelessly race at top gear without tumbling…its rather a long one needing clear strategy, direction, long term vision & trusted partners….the moment IT services have the upper hand back this time, I think they would use every cash & knowledge muscle this time to ensure such clueless goals are not set anytime soon…..
Again above are just random thoughts and can be totally wrong assessments!
At the end of March ,2026 ,portfolio is down 19% from its ATH . For a while it was down 22% . As of today it has recovered somewhat and is roughly 10% from ATH . Its now nearly at the same place it was on end of election result day in 2024 .
By the start of march and war , I had become very dejected about it all and just decided to leave it be and stopped looking for new stocks to invest . Reason being , I thought I had done all I could to pick stocks to invest ,there is not much point to switch out unless clear high probability multibaggers are available to pick . But since the past batch of picks are having no chance to go up because of the way the market is now , there is not much point to add new ones that much .I am still mostly passive and just letting it be.
Bit of a special day as Wockhardts Zaynich got the FDA approval . A day foreseen by some great investors in this forum at the start of 2024 . I had infact already bought it before the detailed studies were done here ..not because I knew better but because I had been greedy and the story had seemed very interesting when I read it in moneycontrol.
I bought it between 400 and 420 ..and now it has gone 5x . I have offcourse sold most of it around 1600 ..but still holding 30% of it..will continue to hold as trophy of sorts .
Its such a rare thing for Indian companies to do what Wockhardt has done .Its also a reminder that great things take time to happen.Those who worry and cry wolf after every guidance miss for every kind of company ,and think that crunching numbers is what maketh multibaggers , will probably never have big multibaggers .
Its a blessing, added 20% to existing holdings last week based on technicals for short term money, now those are long holdings, already 25% of PF after friday move.
At end of June, portfolio has broken fresh ground after 18 months and crossed the spike high made on 2nd Jan 2025 . Its up about 30% from the lows achieved at the end of March this year .
Booked out hurriedly from some stocks that I had bought as medium term investments ,since they were already 40% or so in profit (Avalon,Astra,Afcom etc .) and it seemed prudent in these yo-yo times.But a few of them has ran along quite a distance further ,causing some regret.
However, some also dropped and re bought lower successfully ,resulting in extra profit than otherwise possible(Shilpa,car-trade, KMEW and Syrma for example).Some low conviction trading bets like Modern Insulator ,Aegis etc also gave some quick bucks.
Took out the capital from Bhagyanagar as it was more than 2x up in few months .Intend to hold the rest for sometime .Similarly Apollo microsystems and axiscades ,which were booked at 2.5x and 3x respectively ,has been bought again …unfortunately at higher prices but only the profits are reinvested. The prospects of the defence companies looks bright and its easier to hold longer when risk of losing money in a particular company is non existent .
The disinterest in markets in past half an year probably has caused me to miss a few opportunities and lost edge too as I find myself looking at known companies mostly and scalping profits by swing trades . Bought some old darlings like Angelone, Red-tape, Are&M etc. as they seemed to be doing well enough and were at very low price .Only stocks bought recently with some hopes of multiple returns is IZMO and PNGS Reva in High risk section of the portfolio.
Holding on to connplex, Kalyani cast ,Monarch survey etc. among the SME stocks .
I had managed to reduce the number of stocks last year but again I am finding it difficult to allocate more than 2-3% at any one stock .Continuous stream of bad macros is not allowing sufficient peace of mind to focus and stick to fundamentals .
After a long time made many changes to the portfolio ..specially in the High Risk High Reward section. From the previous set of investments I have mentioned here , I have gotten out of
Genesys….months ago when it broke 300 .No regrets .As I see it, its a very frontloaded business and needs heavy working capital .Otherwise there would be no rights issue at 50 rupees. They may get big orders ..but FCF is years away .
Ceinsys..recently . Its cheap now but management has broken too many words to get market faith back soon even if they do well otherwise. But have my eyes on this one .
Axiscades ..recently . Essentially whats left after its restructuring is unproven and needs a leap of faith to stick around.
Afcom and neetu Joshi were sold earlier because the conviction was borrowed and could not stand the test of the markets .
Current active HRHR section of portfolio looks like this … roughly it is 36% of the entire portfolio .
Most are borrowed ideas hopefully well digested except maybe IZMO,Spark and Balu.
Apart from these some of the regular investments did very well …Shilpa,SBCL ,Syrma had doubled and I have taken out capital from them or sold altogether. Cartrade and KMEW also made more profits by dipping in and out . Naveen Fluorine ,Dynamatic etc were sold with good profits in excess of 40%.However, I am holding some Dynamatic bought entirely of the profits made in it .I am not sure when the promised hockeystick will appear and whether Markets already have paid for it ..so …
I continue to hold the significant remnants of HBL,Apollo,Piccadily,Wockhardt,Bhagyanagar and Valiant. I have jocosely given the name “Muft ka Laddu” for this section of portfolio but its still 20% of present portfolio value …so its still very dear even if notionally free!
Various value and medium term investments in Kaynes,wanbury,onesource ,redtape,asian energy services,indigo paints,SHK ,Zentec etc. plus some trade positions and cash complete the rest.
Portfolio is holding well enough and even advancing a bit …hoping it continues even if the Taurus remains supine .
This one is just an opinion post on …..AI .To see how much of a fool I am ,in hindsight .
There is some pretty optimistic stuff about AI in the thread I follow most . Some even sending humanity on a fast orbit to the stars and mining gold on asteroids using AI robots( what is it anyway ?) . I am also usually an Optimistic person about AI …but that was just too much .AI has not solved any fundamental physics or material science issues as yet and unless that happens we are very much earthbound. The Navier stokes equation seems to have generated lots of optimism for AI worshippers and doomsday prophecy for mathematicians but it took 88 hours and tens of millions of dollars . Ultimately it used thousands of agents and basically brute forced it while humans do it by intuition and knowledge .I am sure AI can be used and will be used to solve similar problems in all STEM subjects but ultimately the limit is in financing the thing .It will be just like getting slots in James Webb space telescope to prove a hunch about alien planets.
Secondly, unless the frontier labs are using some totally different approach , the consumer and commercial agentic AI’s are very much like Amir Khan in Ghazni ..they never learn anything from all the question and answer once they are out of the training mode and published . Larger and larger context window size makes people think that AI is intelligent but thats just illusion.I use AI everyday for troubleshooting but it just cant remember what was deduced and what was eliminated in the previous question answer pair. Its very useful as a good sifter of materials but it is utterly dumb .It can’t reason or understand things enough to be in control.I am aware this problem can be solved to an great extent incase of Agentic AI’s (using transfer learning algos)but its still a question of last 5% . As far as my own line of work is concerned , I do not see it replacing anything but very low level stuff as yet .
Third point is that unless fundamentally different LLM’s are made , cost is the factor. At the moment everybody is throwing money to get the pole position but the prize is somewhat vague . Specialist usage of AI is already possible and in use but that is not going to pay for the development and upkeep unless they can make Apps like YT,Insta,whatsapp etc. that will be used by half the earths population (figure of speech) .These 80s look kind of one night wonders won’t cut it .I have musician friends who had pro subscriptions for AI (Grok) .Within a year the cost has trippled but in place of unlimited videos now one can generate only 6 of 30 second plus videos .That made him and his colleagues unsubscribe . On the other hand , AI is good enough to make substandard music for substandard OTT channels ..so much so that it costs one third of human artists to do so .But that amount is not going to stay the same when the cash burning is stopped. To keep revenue same and still inch closer to profit , the providers have to reduce incremental research cost .This they can’t do because opensource models are breathing down the neck .That is why Amodei and his brothers in arms are suddenly so worried about existential threat . As I see it , they would not give two hoots if they could see profits ahead at the cost of the civilisation .Hence they are trying to stop competition so that they can breath easy and reap the rewards .How else can They stop the Token prices from falling and eating away their margin. I think AI is useful and its a great tech but I do not see how its financially viable in its present form . The companies who have spent so much and promised so much money ,can’t get their money back unless the consumer pays much more and they are finding it very hard .Just consider what will happen if the economy gets worse .Huang having to get Trump to dispel the worries is more worrisome .It would be much more convincing if he had called Mr. Bean .
PS: I found screener AI very useful and I am willing to pay for it at its present rate (only if I make profits offcourse).
Today sold one of my SME bets..namely Connplex . I have had it for 10 months …booked FD returns .I had held it even when it was 25% down when I had the conviction but a thing looked iffy to me and in case of SME stocks…better be Out than be in doubt .
The doubt is just that..its nothing conclusive .I noticed that the promoter sold stocks worth about 8 crore ,it was bought mostly by a company (yantra esolar) . In next few days preferential issue details were declared and most of the warrants worth 4.3 crores went to a company named oppbasket .Thing is Oppbasket and Yantra offices are in the same building that houses various companies under monarch networth capital companies and their directors cross populate other companies boards in the same building . And Connplex headquarters are also 20 minutes away . Its entirely possible that the Monarch group genuinely is deeply convinced of connplex stocks bright future and buying it every way possible .Its also possible that there is an invisible connection in the loop and the same money is being taken out from shares and poured into warrants to generate some interest income and some excitement . Frankly its all too vague and I did not go deep enough but the shadow of a doubt is enough at the moment because I have been thinking of selling Connplex even before looking at all that.
Cinema stocks are somewhat out of favour and I am not sure Connplex stock would run even if they show good growth .Enough research has been done on this one and it looks to be a very good business model but nothing seems to be giving it any wind in its sails .Maybe it will run now that I have gone overboard .. :)
Used the proceeds to buy one extra lot of Monarch surveyors , which also has no wind in its sails but seems much aboveboard and far too cheap . Future will tell how foolish this change was .
Portfolio is at near ATH but not sure how long this will hold. Too many negative things affecting the markets at the moment and only the fact that the portfolio and the smallcaps mostly staying resilient and we are after all 2 years into a bearish/sideways market is keeping me invested . The XIRR has dropped from 48% at end of 2024 to 34% though .It had dropped lower in march but has recovered somewhat .
I am trying to consolidate into higher conviction positions during the dips and selling out of less conviction positions.
Sold out of Wockhardt( great company but the good results due to zaynich is still some time away and I hope to get a lower entry point before that) .
Sold out HBL as well..good company but promoter is not interested much in making money as he is too old to care for it .Being a minority holder of companies like this for long term is likely to be an unsatisfactory experience. Also it seems the electronic fuse business is some time away from blooming . The indian military is very slow on rolling out production orders even after qualification and statement of requirement .Apollo microsystem is still awaiting those 1000 crore production orders!)
Sold SPARC as well after a deeper look . The PE is useless for this kind of business where there is even no yearly pattern of revenue or profit possible . The one time gain is non recurring and upcoming licensing or selling of new products is very unpredictable in timing and pricing . Good company but the stock is not for me.
