Investing journey of an imperfect investor

[Samarth_Nagpal]

It’s been a year since I wrote about the above PF which was duly constructed over a span of more than 2 years before I penned down.

So all in all the top 4-5 stocks had been given a healthy run of 3-4 years without any new addition until last couple of quarters.

Over the last 2-3 months have done more profit booking than I had actually planned strictly basis results, expectations & management commentary & actions playing out.

My thesis over last 1 year was that market was going to become difficult to make money & hence my actions more oriented towards rotation & deploying less of fresh capital & watching if any major opportunity presented. It has been a strategy I’ve executed across PFs & has helped maintain good cash position as well as peace of mind. It has also helped reduce churn as markets have given multiple false hopes & stocks have given multiple false rallies.

Coming to recent times, the biggest mystery to take action upon post & before Q1 has been the somewhat delay in announcement of capex by Shilchar. Now they are known to take their own course & go with their plans, so in hindsight it wasn’t a surprise.

But the delay in capex announcement seems to have taken its toll on stock price now particularly keeping the market conditions into consideration.

I was hesitant to sell it at the top & started selling once it showed signs of exhaustion as it moved towards 5500-5600 levels after having dropped down to 5200-5300 levels. Have sold some position & gains lead to elevated cash levels. This is the first time I’ve sold Shilchar in close to 3.5 years & still retain a good position to play with.

Ethos now is part of only family PF. I feel with current expansion & model, the earnings growth will have a drag. It’ll be more of a compounder & hence sold that off in own PF to look at some other opportunities or add onto those recently added.

I have added some more Windlas Biotech & a lot of Sandhar over last 2 months.

It is a phase of staggered buying for me & nothing much to add onto apart from the fact that this still for me is a stock picker’s market giving ample opportunity to evaluate, reject & accept companies into PF.

Disc: Not authorised to advise & no reco on stocks. Pls do own diligence

[Samarth_Nagpal]

We follow many frameworks & marquee investors also have their trademark frameworks to work upon, which novices like us borrow from.

Having followed different approaches to the market & having constructed PFs from scratch, I’d been contemplating to pen down what has worked or rather could work in future as well.

In the past I had put a video taking inspiration from cricket & had penned down my understanding of market in May taking inspiration from Tennis, hence it’s no surprise that this small framework also draws its inspiration from a sport called Basketball.

Now in Basketball one of the most exhilarating parts of game is when a player scores through Slam dunk which is a glamourised scoring shot as one has to manoeuvre through impossible spaces & get the task done on his own or rather be there at the right time to score for his team.

The joy one gets is immense. But then the ability to master it or specialise in it comes after years of practice. Ofcourse taller players or well built players have an advantage but it isn’t that it’s impossible for others to do it.

Now a few points might sound repetitive but let’s see how SLAM DUNK framework could help one select good Businesses.

This isn’t fool proof but could be one of the starting points qualitatively.

𝘚- 𝘚𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘺 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴
𝘓- 𝘓𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦, 𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 & 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘥
𝘈- 𝘈𝘴𝘱𝘪𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘣𝘪𝘨 & 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘰𝘯 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘺𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘴 & 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘥𝘰 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘗𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦
𝘔- 𝘔𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘪𝘴 𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘩 𝘧𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘴 & 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘥

𝘋- 𝘋𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦. 𝘋𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮 𝘣𝘪𝘨 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘰
𝘜- 𝘜𝘯𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘬𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 & 𝘜𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵
𝘕- 𝘕𝘰 𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘣𝘦𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘕𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘰 𝘜𝘯𝘰 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 & 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 &
𝘒- 𝘒𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘩𝘰𝘸 𝘰𝘧 𝘩𝘰𝘸 𝘵𝘰 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘯’𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘺

As an investor our job is to find these SLAM DUNK stocks or rather businesses.

Ofcourse be prepared that the promises might fall short with headwinds right there or a bigger industry player blocking right at the end.

Or the player might not make it to the league even after so much promise or just get injured at the wrong time.

But even one SLAM DUNK stock could help our PF become a winner & bring a smile on our face :)

[Samarth_Nagpal]

Start of November note- Thoughts as we entered November

#markets #investing #investor #trading | Samarth Nagpal

[Samarth_Nagpal]

For Oct & November, I’ve been a net seller & taken some more profits off table. Have taken exposure in V2 Retail & Arvind Fashions but that’s minimal exposure. Have sold a lot of Shilchar now & on allocated capital it is no longer a top 4 holding.

Cash remains at elevated levels with minimal capital deployed since last year second half & more profit booking being done.

Taking a chance as I feel that even if I’m late, I won’t lose out much.

Below is my note at November end as I tend to write free flowing thoughts. It’s been a difficult journey last one year but glad to have been somewhat bearish & not going aggressive on allocating more cash.

I’ve been waiting patiently now & reading more & cleaning up PFs. No stock is a recommended & I’m not authorised to recommend.

#investing #trading #markets #investor | Samarth Nagpal

[Samarth_Nagpal]

Cash remains at elevated levels. Since October end have been an aggressive net seller. The liquidity in small caps is disheartening. In November & December have added 4 new companies with allocations that are like testing the waters.

Had added some silver ETF too around 135-140 in October end & topped up in November as well.

V2 Retail Arvind Fashions added in November. With aggressive store expansions & a likely good winter season with clean strategy, they are also holding up quite well.

In December have added RACL Geartech & NRB bearings to own PF. Both have excellent managements & seem to be coming out of headwinds too.

Nothing much to do & still in the mode that can enter anytime without any regrets.

Disc: No recommendation & biased & not authorised to recommend.

[Samarth_Nagpal]

Dec end Note-

Being Stubborn just like you’ve been !

A short, but thought clearing post as December almost gets wrapped up. Sitting on sidelines waiting for Jan for market to reveal its earnings side. The silver line this month has been the resilience shown by 3-4 companies that have been recently bought, aside supremacy of silver that turned out to be super good trade taken in October end.

Two new companies just to add up from the ancillary space I’ve been quite bullish on to add to two retail companies bought in November. Now having said that have been stubborn to sit on ample cash just like the market has been stubborn when it comes to moving the prices of the scripts.

What keeps busy is an endless list of web series, some fiction & some concalls of watchlist companies that I had specifically procrastinated going through as the narrative of most things getting undervalued would’ve tempted to buy more than my stubbornness could afford.

When to buy aggressively? I don’t know

Time to sell more? I don’t think so, having gone all guns blazing in October end but then result season could make me make some decisions of course post results & commentary now.

As we enter January, the patience that I was fearing that I’d lose is back, courtesy some greedy buying as stated above.

I hope Jan & if not Feb & if not one of the months in CY26, makes me go all in. Till then Silver has been off late the silver lining in a struggling market :)

Disc: Just my thoughts. Not authorised to recommend & no recommendation

[Samarth_Nagpal]

𝗝𝗮𝗻 end 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲
𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗺𝘂𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁- A month of no buying selling. I might sound stupid but even I’ve been amazed by my stubbornness shown towards market.

A month of inactivity in today’s time with mouth watering stock prices could be plain stupidity but I was prepared to put out my monthly note ending as,”𝗕𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗽𝗶𝗱, 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 “

The result season has kickstarted & the job for this month was cut out to look for the next few companies that might make the cut for the next cycle of PF expansion, read again not PE expansion.

A majority of them were already in watchlists & why looking forward to Q3 results, as they also give a visibility of their performance in turbulent times as well as some peek into FY27

I do believe with all this circus going around, the nerves of better managements would be settled now, with more structured approach around their game plan for the future rather than roaming around like a headless chicken like most of us on sidelines.

So yes, after a relaxing few quarters, more emphasis on finding new winners. 𝗜𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺𝘀 𝘂𝗽 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗽𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗜𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗵𝗮𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘆𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗮𝘀𝗸𝘀.

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗝𝗮𝗻 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗯𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗺𝘆 𝗦𝗲𝗽 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘀 & 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗱𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗺𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 & 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗰𝗵𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵. Mostly every stock has been mostly retained very respectfully, also because of the fact that they were chosen very carefully. To each his own style, to put perspective :)

𝗜𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝘆 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁, 𝗜𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗶 𝗲𝗸 𝗱𝘂𝗺 𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗻𝗮𝗵𝗶 𝗮𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗴𝗮, 𝗕𝗵𝗮𝗮𝘃 𝗺𝗶𝗹 𝗷𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗴𝗮, 𝘆𝗲𝗵 𝗻𝗮𝗵𝗶 𝘁𝗼 𝗸𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗮𝘂𝗿 𝗺𝗶𝗹 𝗷𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗴𝗮…

𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝘂𝗹𝗲 𝗻𝗼 𝟭 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴

Having been patient about first & prudent about second, the value investor in me is ready to buy more as there’s more blood on the street.

In Bull markets one can cling to hope & in Bear markets can cling to faith, but the irony is we’ve very few fundamental investors left who don’t take a bite at every bait. I’m still trying to make my way to that camp but it’s a difficult task

𝗔𝗹𝗮𝘀 𝗜 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗵𝗲𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹- 𝗕𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁, 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝗱𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗽𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗿’𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁, 𝗯𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝗸𝗲

Happy investing & no recommendation

[Samarth_Nagpal]

Feb end note- Cautiously optimistic, the odds are getting into your favour, Play well

Another month & what a ride.

So much so for value investing.

Oct end 2025, was a pivotal moment in my investing journey when I sold a a lot of equity to trim some old winners.

After being inactive in January, February made me buy some watchlist stocks.

As a value investor, you get greedy as a stock falls but you’ve got to nibble at a stock eventually.

Strictly an investing framework & not at all for trading.

But while everyone went gung ho about trade deal, my stance was cautiously optimistic.

The weight of evidence in investing holds importance​

Now coming to businesses & results, we are better but aren’t really a market of euphoric chatter.

The volumes being traded still remain dismal.

It is as if market has declared dry days continuum post delirium of 2024.

Most stocks seem to be begging for buyers attention.

Times are such that many managements are shelling a peanut of their salaries to buy some stock, as if to show that it still trades

It is as if when liquidity sneezed, the whole of market caught cold.

Now coming to earnings, whilst agree, small caps have done way better, but these brats are now deservingly getting the wrath of market participants, just as any brat takes even after it has started to correct its faltering days.

It’s as if their presence is dismissed from an investors scanner.

Remember Roland Garros market that I spoke about in March of last year.

Don’t forget they were also given freedom in terms of valuations that should have never been given basis their order books beaming, forgetful cash flows, themes built in the air, suited booted promotors, decorated SME/ micro cap investors backing them through warrants & preferential.

Good thing is that market will eventually forgive in future, & stock’s friends ie investors will come back, but many will be ones who’d seek validation of value in these fallen angels :)

The bigger guns, ie stalwarts ka Ashirwad will also come back

The earnings will have to show sustenance with quality.

As an investor, for many months you’ve probably been scratching your heads rather than flashing your PFs, but stocks don’t have feelings.

But promotors do have brains :)

Trade wars, demand, commodity prices, ruthless investors, they aren’t of any concern to a management that’s focused.

Life will give you two ways to face a situation, pick out doom or opportunity.

I’ve probably picked doom for 1.5 years & now I’ve started wearing the lenses of opportunity, but still carrying a power of cautiousness.

Of course you may disagree.

After all your short might be my long & my long your short.

This last statement might put a smile on your face :)

Alas, Go back to that Kohli’s innings of T20 WC​

Build well, build slow, keep a track of the limitless opportunities, the market will throw. I started the year with low expectations, that benchmark could get the odds in favour​