Investing Basics - Feel free to ask the most basic questions

@Rafi_Syed

Adding on to what @Chandragupta has said, let me quote some real life examples where ignoring these ratios led to reverse compounding of investors’ wealth :smiley:

These are cases of investors who ignored CFO vs PAT and got caught on the wrong wicket.

Note: This isn’t to pin point faults in any investor’s analysis. All of us are learning and making mistakes is the tuition fee we pay to the market. And these case studies are vicarious experiences for normal mortals like all of us.

Case 1 - Opto Circuits

In this article, Vishal had analyzed Opto in depth and these were his observations about CFO vs PAT.


Yet, he did not pay give enough weight to CFO vs PAT, went ahead and invested. Perhaps, a lot of growth investors like myself, might have done so too, because their growth was mesmerizing.

And here’s what happened to the stock price subsequently,

To Vishal’s credit, he publicly accepted that his investment thesis had been broken at the hip. (Not every blogger is bold enough to do this. Unlike Vishal, some others just try to push things under the rug :slight_smile: )

Case 2 - Photoquip India

In this case, Amit Arora talks about his experience with Photoquip India, which he picked up in 2011. Since this is a paid article, I don’t want to quote anything written in it. But the gist of the story is he trusted the management at face value.
What was missing in the article though was that cash flows were lacking before, during and after he’d invested.
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And here’s the subsequent downfall in the company’s stock price.

Case 3 - Sun Pharma
Here’s some disconfirming evidence that can be very baffling. Between 2005 & 2010, Sun Pharma’s CFO consistently stayed below the 80% threshold (barring 2009).
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Yet their stock was rocking because the market believed in the promoter’s ability to turn things around from a cash flow perspective.


And indeed, they did manage to improve their cash flow subsequently.
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Case 4 - Laurus Labs in July 2020
Some investors were worried about Laurus’ receivables being high and chose to skip investing in its stock. In effect they were saying, Laurus’ future CFO would be impacted because cash would be stuck in receivables and some of those receivables would become bad debts and would therefore lead to cash flow problems for the co.

What they missed is that receivables in pharma usually don’t end up being bad debts and write offs because relationships between pharma cos and their clients are multi year and there is a lot of inter dependence. If one of Laurus’ large clients defaulted or delayed payments, Laurus could simply cut-off future supplies to that party and start recovery. (Hitesh bhai had written about this aspect somewhere, but I can’t remember where)

Besides who were these clients that owed money to Laurus? Were they some fly by night operators that would vanish into thin air some day? Or were these clients big MNCs that could potentially delay but not deny payments to Laurus? In my view, the answer was the latter and hence I took a big position despite their receivables being high, at 102 days at the time.

To conclude, like any other metric, a low CFO vs PAT can tell you there’s something getting cooked in the books. Yet, as the case of Sun Pharma shows, if the jockey is good, he can turn things around and CFO doesn’t become a problem then.

Too many times, we get stuck up on a single metric and let go of some great opportunities, without looking at the grand scheme of things instead.

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Hi @Rafi_Syed ,

I don’t have any specific knowledge of this subject, these are just stray opinions!

I think one must accept that there is an inherent conflict between industrial growth and environment, and each country has to balance the conflict in the light of their priorities. China now counts itself among the developed world (which is true also) and hence has begun to emulate what the West did 25 years ago. And so we see the “growth-at-any-cost” strategy replaced by a more mature approach. China understands that environment is important, and growth is no longer as urgent as it once was. For India, I believe economic growth should still drive the agenda as we still have a long way to go to uplift those at the bottom of pyramid. This is not to say environment can be ignored, but economic growth is more urgent. I think India has been playing this balancing act quite well.

As you rightly point out, India is not the only one to benefit from China +1, there will be others too. It all depends on who is best placed to fill up the space that China vacates. And here, the competitive position of each country will determine the outcome. For example, Bangladesh & Vietnam may benefit in textiles, India in Chemicals & Pharma and so on. Luckily for us, Chemicals & Pharma are not just manufacturing, they are also “knowledge” industries. This creates a natural entry barrier which others cannot break through just by playing a labor cost arbitrage. So these sectors can give India a sustainable edge for many more years to come.

Aside of all this, the world is also waking up to the fact that China is a political hot potato. This makes China + 1 a strategic imperative as over reliance on China can prove disastrous in case of a political black swan event. I don’t see China + 1 as a hype, it is a necessity to ensure long term survival.

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@Rafi_Syed China + 1 is a macro factor with too many moving parts and can be considered top-down approach to investing. Whereas, a bottom up approach usually works best, in my view.

When I heard China+1 for the first time, my mind immediately jumped to the conclusion that the +1 represents India. But a deeper look indicates otherwise. The +1 could mean numerous countries other than India.

Besides, here are some of the moving parts that may need to play out for China+1 to actually benefit India:

  • If the Chinese are clamping down on polluting factories, how long will they continue to do so?
  • What will happen when the music stops?
  • What are the chances of the Chinese eventually moving these polluting factories far away from the * cities? What will happen then?
  • How many other companies in countries other than India can benefit from China+1?
  • And so many other miscellaneous factors…

I don’t like to dig holes to the centre of earth to unearth information. In most cases, such investment cases are probably not worth investigating. That’s a trade off I make to keep things simple for myself.

I have seen some other superb investors who are very good at this and I am not. And I am at peace with that. As long as my existing methods can generate an alpha for me over the indices, why bother? This is not to say I won’t keep learning, but I will stay away from analysis paralysis.

How to play China+1 using a bottom-up approach?
What will happen when China+1 materializes and Indian companies start benefiting from this policy?
Sales, Profits , Margins and ROEs of Indian cos will rise.
To quote an example, Wuhan was the first province to be locked down by China, last year. Now, Wuhan is where a lot of APIs are made.

What happened when that business started moving from Wuhan, China to India in early-2020?
Mr. Market started noting this development and quickly jacked up prices of API cos like Aarti Drugs, Laurus Labs, etc. With every passing quarter this trend got confirmed and stock prices of API cos moved up swiftly.

So, one way to play China+1 is to keep an eye on companies where sales/profits are suddenly increasing. And the second way is to keep an eye on stocks that are breaking out to all time highs and then try to figure out why they hit an all time high.

This increases the odds that I catch the China+1 wave or any one of the other thousands of waves that keep happening all the time. The current fave being the EV wave.

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Hi All,
have question on shared holding…
when it say:
" Individual share capital upto Rs. 2 Lacs" and “Individual share capital in excess of Rs. 2 Lacs
is it individual investors count… with number of shares…
i.e individual investors with shares amounting to less than 2lakhs…
example of DeepakNitrite:
Individual share capital upto Rs. 2 Lacs
No. of ShareHolder: 3,63,709
No. of fully paid up equity shares held : 3,07,00,552

Individual share capital in excess of Rs. 2 Lacs
No. of ShareHolder: 14
No. of fully paid up equity shares held :32,20,057
i.e 14 shareholders with shares 32 lakhs… whose sharecapital is above 2lakhs…
is it correct, my doubt is only 14 above 2lakhs isnt clearing for me…
for a stock like DeepakNitrite we only have 14 shareholders with above 2 lakh invested… isnt something believable…

just any comments…

Thanks…

This is how I infer: It’s not the amount of money invested by an individual shareholders.

As shown above, the total share capital of this business ( [DEEPAKNTR) is 27.28 Cr [13.63 Cr. shares Qty., each with Face Value of INR 2].

The 14 shareholders are holding share Qty of more than 1 lakh and the same results in the share capital of more than 2 lacs after multiplying with the Face Value of INR 2.

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Entered tata motors at 280 levels and in good profit. bought tata motors for EV play. But the current results and growth is not justifiable . Is tata motors a good pick also how to conclude on how to sell a stock?

i was looking at the balance sheet of a company.

In consolidated BS, account receivable was 5 cr
In standalone, AR was around 13 cr.

Why the discrepancy?

Out of that Rs.13 crore, Rs.8 crore would be from its subsidiary company. It gets knocked off in consolidation, leaving only Rs.5 crore external receivables.

In screener.in it many times says in the list of cons that
“the company might be capitalizing on interest cost”.
What does it mean and is it a serious cor gov issue ? How can we detect if it’s true ?

Thank you sir for clearing the doubt…

One thing more if I may ask;

One company I was researching was expanding into international markets but has inventory keep more than the sales amount.

Would it be a red flag for you?
Or it’s just a nature of growing company.

Thanks in advance…

EV Theme , especially Passenger Vehicle (4 Wheelers)

Is it hype or real ? If we see the sequential growth , people are not buying more cars. The prediction when Taxi Aggregators entered ; people will prefer to rent a car than own a car. This is the preference for the Millennials.

Total number of units sold ( ICE + EV) on sequential basis are not very huge when we compare against Pre-Covid level numbers ? ( There is huge pent up demand for new cars, few days back I visited a Toyota showroom to buy a used car, the dealer said the prices have gone by 40%, they don’t have stock of new cars to sell, one has to wait for atleast for 6 months , they are calling the their customers if they have car to sell. One of my friend bought a car last year 2020 just after first lock down for 20K, now the same car with similar specification and mileage they are selling at 27k, interesting part is people are ready to buy , two reasons are new cars are not available and in the west government is pushing very hard to give away Diesel cars by introducing ULEZ and all )

Please share your thoughts.

Thanks

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I presume you are referring to annual sales amount. If yes, it would indeed be quite unusual to have inventory higher than sales. It calls for further scrutiny as to why the inventory is so high, and if no satisfactory explanation is found, it can be considered a red flag.

You may note that certain businesses by their very nature are prone to high inventory levels. For example, basmati rice is “aged” for a couple of years before it is brought to market. Rice companies therefore show very high inventory levels. Aging is also very common in alcohol. Retailing & fashion have high inventories. A real estate player executing a large project may show high inventory level if there are a large number of unsold flats. Typically, it is a good idea to compare inventories of target company with inventory levels of peers in similar business lines. That should tell you what “normal” inventory should be for the company in question and whether there is a red flag.

The nature of inventory also matters. I am quite okay with high raw material inventories. Companies sometimes buy in bulk to take advantage of low commodity prices, avail of bulk discounts or simply to insure against supply chain disruptions. But high finished goods inventories may point to window dressing and one must be cautious such cases.

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Thanks for reply sir. It’s very much clear.

The company is in home decor space.
It manufactures window binds and their model is like, the take orders from customers throughout India and then manufacture the item as per the customer need.

Created a thread on this;

Hi friends
I was learning about cash flows, but got a doubt. This is cash flow statement of TCS from screener.in, as far as i know Row 4 in screenshot is know as free cash flow. But this row is not very consistent (negative in 5 years out of last 12 years) although TCS is stable company. If there is so much inconsistency in free cash flow, how can we do DCF analysis? Am I missing something?
Please help


, Thanks in advance.

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That’s not the way you do it bro!

Expand “Cash from Investing activity” under which you find “Fixed assets purchased” and “Fixed assets sold”

Free Cash Flow = Cash from Operating Activity - Fixed assets purchased + Fixed assets sold

FCF For TCS in Mar2021 IS:
38802 - 3075 + 37 = 35764 Cr.
Thanks

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Got it @Caution_Investor Thank you.

What is break even capacity ?

I was going through a report of Rajratan and come across this term. My understanding is earlier the company used to sweat its asset by at least by 52% to break even now they can achieve that by by 32% , is my understanding correct ?


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A query to all experienced folks here ,

How should we invest based upon capex plans of a Co. Should we invest when the capex is announced or when the capex is in execution or it’s completed and production has started or when we see actual numbers in revenue ? In later cases it might be too late to ride the growth ? Case here could be deepak fertilizer or nitrite , both have big capex plans ,share price is not much increased so is it already priced in , or it would start reflecting inline with capex execution.

Thanks in advance.

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You can divide all costs into fixed costs and variable costs. Contribution Margin is what is left after you deduct variable costs from revenues. This is what is available to cover fixed costs. When contribution margin is equal to fixed costs, you have a ‘no profit no loss’ situation. Earlier, they achieved this at 52% capacity utilization, now they reach it at just 32%. So business risk has come down. They start making profit at 32% utilization instead of 52% earlier. That is what they are saying.

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I am not experienced but I can say this.

Capex funding is one aspect to look for. How is a company funding the capex, internal accruals, external debt, if so at what rate? Where will this additional product go, what will be the margins, what are the competitors doing and saying? etc.

I have read, that in anticipation of demand, companies make capex plans and then market is flooded, so profits come down. So not every capex plan may not be beneficial for the company and for the investors. I guess, market senses this very easily and its reaction in whichever way can be treated as an answer to this.

On the other hand, for a company, which does not take external debt and funds its capex plans with internal accruals, whose addressable market is large enough for the additional product to get absorbed, with a management who has experience in this and executes, price appreciation is bound to happen, more so in oligopoly or niche markets. The pie is large enough for many to eat or all eat different items.

One could even do this. Company A is supplying to a large company B, so it would help if to know the business of company B too. If B does not grow for whatever reason, what would A do with the additional capacity, inventories?

Hope this answers a bit.

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