Industry Overview - Challenges & Opportunities - Webinars/Podcasts info

Prem Watsa Webinar Takeaways (20th May 2020):

1st black swan was the Coronavirus.
2nd one was the collapse of oil prices.
The 3rd one was the lockdown.

Unexpected events leads to extreme uncertainty which leads to panic.

Seen many uncertainties in the past:
• Financial crisis in 2008-09. Then General Motors went bankrupt, chrysler, GE couldn’t roll over short term CPs. March 2009 made a low and we never saw it again.
• Sep 2001 collapse was also unprecedented.
• 1974 President Nixon was being impeached and he resigned. OPEC was trying to raise prices from $2 to $10. Price of oil going up so much affected the world.
Lessons from the past - this too shall pass,optimistic that we will get a solution soon.

Always worry for the unexpected and make sure you can survive that.

Fairfax borrowed in bonds last year and ensured they don’t mature for 3 years. Made sure all their businesses were self sufficient. Had a $2 billion unused bank line at the end of December.

Fairfax has $4 billion invested in India and 4 lakh employees - Quess being a very significant employer. Expect to invest more over the years as opportunities arise.

First thing is to survive. In 1985, there were 6,000 listed companies in Nasdaq of which only 10% survived. For survival always look for the unexpected.

In this pandemic large companies have come back, but a lot of medium companies are on the bargain counter.

Very excited about India in terms of its possibilities.

Normalcy is returning already. USA is opening up. General Motors is beginning production this week. Others will follow. Oil prices have started going up. Russia and Saudi have cut production significantly. Demand is picking up. China has gone back to its pre-lockdown demand of 13 million barrels a day.

(Vaccine for Covid) largest insurer of clinical trials is in London. They are insuring 122 trials. There are so many trials taking place they are positive that somewhere some development will take place. More positive on Oxford University and Moderna Inc.

Fairfax did a bond issue in April. Raised $500 million at a little more than 4.5%. If they raised before the virus, they cold have done it at 3.5%.

No country can be shut down. Key is to open up economies. We have got to take risks and be careful at the same time.

80% of deaths in Canada due to Coronavirus is from long term nursing homes and its the same with USA too. Young people should go out and work. Need to be careful.

(On Sir John Templeton) Knew him for 30 years and was a great mentor. If something goes down 50% you should ask yourself why you’re not buying, and if something goes up 50% you should ask youself why you’re not selling. The best time to buy is the time of maximum pessimism.

Prem Watsa’s father was a principal in a school. They were 4 siblings. Had very good parents and great values. Came to Canada in 1972.

Less than 10% of Fairfax portfolio is invested in India (total portfolio is $40 billion). India is going to be an unbelievable land of opportunity. Mantle of growth is being passed on to India.

“A third of the investment decisions are wrong. If you get 2/3 right you can have a good record” - Sir John Templeton

Bets on people. Doesn’t make an investment unless he likes the people running the company.

Being contrarian means looking at the facts and saying this has happened before.

NYC measures 60,000 pieces of information every day after 9/11 on all goings on in the city. Security everywhere.

In Q2 Fed is issuing $3 trillion of bonds. Their worry might be inflation and interest rates going higher.

The free enterprise system in USA is unbelievable. Huge upcoming $12 billion investment in USA for semiconductor plant. Accelerated depreciation in USA due to which the entire thing can be written off in just one year. Huge tax savings.

Disney in Florida is opening in July 1st.

USA has the ability and the smarts. The smartest guys in business are appointed. They got the Democrats to back the T- bill in just 9 days!

Never understood gold. Always bought equity and bonds.

Golden rule. You have to have a good culture - treating people well.

Empowerment + Compensation are key to retaining good people. Only 35 people in the head the office of Fairfax.

Fairfax was worth $2 million when they began. Today they put $20-25 million in community business all over the world every year.

China has had 10% economic growth for a long time. Its not surprising if that comes down.

India has tremendous potential.

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“Today, I am declaring a simple but vital national goal: The United States will be the world’s premiere pharmacy, drugstore, and medical manufacturer.”

Whoever says cost advantage and all needs a relook. In times likes this, some decisions are beyond cost advantage.

A webinar on `Decoding the Stimulus’ presented by Union Bank of India:

Date & Time:May 22, 2020 04:00 PM

Link for registration:https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_4DkxjzChSSCUtC8ZaEjOTA

For those interested VP folk:

CRISIL Webinar on automotive and automotive components sector: Rough road ahead
Date: 26-May-2020

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*A webinar on “How Safe are Debt Mutual Funds”

Date & Time:May 29, 2020 at 04:00 PM

Link for registration:Error - Zoom

Indian Economy: Navigating through a Crisis - Dr. D Subbarao & Dr. Montek Ahluwalia

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CRISIL webinar: The crude crash cascade - Impact of low prices on India Inc.
Date: 02-June-2020
Time: 3:00 pm

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Investing session with Mohnish Pabrai https://cdn.vouchpro.tv/edelweiss290520/

The Future of Healthcare, Pharma, and Allied Industries (HPA) Punch: Day 2 Panel Discussion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyYr7bmIti4

Link to the summary:

CRISIL webinar on Road sector: Hiccups on the highway
Date: 04-June-2020; 3:00 PM

Topics to be covered:
Expected investments in the roads sector
Pace of NHAI project awarding and trends in execution
Status of projects under the hybrid annuity model
Credit perspective and outlook on road EPC companies
Traffic estimates and viability of toll road projects in the near term

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Agri Reforms - Will they be a Game Changer?


Date & Time:June 5, 2020 at 04:00 PM

Link for registration:https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3515909022558/WN_88Cf5C5cQISS4d8_CY01_w

Quantitative Techniques: DIY - Building a Quantitative System | Parijat Garg

Takeaways :
He goes over the basics of what it takes to setup a quant system. Simple system can be established without any costs. Some programming knowledge is essential atleast in one language. He also mentioned about our very own screener.in .
Good for people who are beginners and want to get introduced to quantitative systems.

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RAY Consulting is facilitating a webinar to discuss:

  • Reasons for prompting the GOI to issue such an order
  • Pros and cons of the order – impact on Ag Chem Indian Industry and farmers
  • What are various options with the industry
  • How the industry should respond to the order

On Saturday, 6th June 2020, Time 4 PM to 5 PM
Register at https://bit.ly/RAYtalks6

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CRISIL will conduct webinar on the topic:
SMEs: The epicentre of an existential crisis

Area being covered:

  • The impact of the pandemic on the performance of SME-dominated sectors
  • Trend and outlook on SMEs for the current fiscal
  • Market voices from select/key sectors
  • Views of lenders as critical stakeholders

Date: 10-June-2020
Time: 3 PM

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CRISIL webinar on Cotton Yarn & Readymade Garments
Date: 25-Jun-2020

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https://datasetsearch.research.google.com
Google has released 25 million datasets for free

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CRISIL Webinar on Steel sector
02-Jul-2020; 3PM

https://crisil.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_5FeI4AwMQomV91T0B5Id7A

Registration Link
https://bit.ly/RAYtalksnextagri

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/8915934992726/WN_dV9Ryz7vSv-fnAxcT1qeKg

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https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/90304397459497485?utm_source=Webinar+Attendee+Database&utm_campaign=9b21102c12-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_04_13_06_48_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_642cd1e287-9b21102c12-161568112

Brickwork Ratings WebConference - Series V on Indian Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSME) and Impact of COVID-19
Mon, Jul 6, 2020 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM GST
Show in My Time Zone
Join Brickwork Ratings for a live discussion with market experts to discuss the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Indian Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSME) in the short term, medium term and longer term. We will discuss the impact on recent government and central bank initiatives to support the segment. The Webconference will discuss the following:

KEY TOPICS
Growth outlook for the sector and Key Themes
Key credit trends
Measured taken by the government and central bank to support the sector
Post lock-down scenario for the sector
What kind of recovery we can expect?
Q&A session

KEY SPEAKERS
Shri Pratap Chandra Sarangi, Hon’ble Minister of State, Ministry of Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSME), Government of India
Shri Vivek Kulkarni IAS (Retd), Managing Director, Brickwork Ratings

PANEL SPEAKERS
Shri Pratap Chandra Sarangi, Hon’ble Minister of State, Ministry of Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSME), Government of India
Shri Challa Sreenivasulu Setty, Managing Director, State Bank of India
Shri V Satya Venkata Rao, Deputy Managing Director, SIDBI
Shri P Udayakumar, Director (Planning and Marketing), The National Small Industries Corporation Ltd. (NSIC)
Shri Ajay Marwaha, Head- Investment Advisory & Management, Sun Global Investments (UK)
Ananth Narayan, Associate Professor, SP Jain Institute of Management and Research

Moderator: Rajat Bahl, Chief Ratings Officer, Brickwork Ratings

Kindly use work email to register. For more information, email investordesk@brickworkratings.com

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