I have done some rough work on the TAM data for the MFI sector based on a few assumptions on household data and loan outstanding figures.
TAM.xlsx (14.3 KB)
This is just one of the ways to guesstimate the market size. Sharing this here to get different POVs from others looking at this space. I have provided the assumptions, references in the respective cell.
I know this is far from perfect, but such is the nature of this industry. It is impossible to know unique loan account data unless you get into credit bureau data. Even then there is opaqueness from SHG bank linked programs and unorganized money lenders. Thus I have tried to be conservative in my assumptions but even then this model is far from complete.
As a comparable, Mr. Ravi Dharamshi of ValueQuest estimates the opportunity in next India to be of 30 lac cr. He, however, includes MSME lending and affordable housing to the mix.
If there are any queries, discrepancies, or general discussion related to this please do reach out here. It will be a good learning opportunity for all of us.
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