Just my view,
IEX is wronged due to insider trading but the main appeal is that the ‘market coupling directive is based on flawed parameters and violates principles of natural justice and IEX market share will decrease without providing any clear benefits to the power sector ecosystem’(as per IEX).
CERC/SEBI/Investors can file case against the individuals(for insider trading) but how the insider trading caused the share price collapse of IEX? I believe even without insider info market would have reacted same.
Only thing which IEX can use it as a point that the CERC intentions(due to it’s employees insider trading) was not independent and was for personal gain.
Management commented that the hearings have been concluded today and they have to submit some documents by 4th feb and the final order from aptel could take upto a month.
They also dismissed news article on fee reduction.
When asked on future plans if order goes against iex, they said that if cerc wants to proceed with coupling, it will have to provide statement of reason, make draft regulations, invite comments and the stakeholders can raise their concerns at every step. They didnt say how much time this process will take but I think it will take atleast 2 years.
For everyone holding IEX right now, the stock price action is weak, but the business data is strong. January traded volume was the highest ever at 13,050 MU, up 19.6% YoY, and the key growth engine RTM was 4,638 MU, up 52.8% YoY. Prices on DAM and RTM were lower YoY, which actually helps exchanges because it improves buyer participation and liquidity. DAM volumes were steady, TAM grew well, and green volumes also grew.
Only soft spot was REC volumes, down 37.1% YoY, so track that separately.
Net takeaway, fundamentals and monthly momentum look positive, so for existing holders this reads like hold for the long term story, while keeping an eye on regulatory headlines and REC trend.
IEX is today standing at a place where MCX was standing 5 years back and price action in MCX is a story to remember for a long time. In my opinion same may happen for IEX over very long period unless regulators do some non sense.
This is personal opinion as I am invested and biased.
What can be good amount i.e. percentage of portfolio in iex for retail investors when we know it has regulatory risk? What I like about iex is it’s network centric business, which will become more bigger monopoly as volume rises. Disclaimer: Holding and biased. Recently bought.
Govt set 20k Cr for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in this budget. There is also some carbon credit trading scheme (CCTS). Couldn’t find more details and considering track record of the govt, implementation of this would take time but looks like some positive direction for ICX.
APTEL has dismissed the plea filed by IEX challenging the market coupling framework. The tribunal has also allowed the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) to proceed with the process of framing regulations for market coupling
I read order, from my understanding, Aptel has dismissed the petition as at current stage, party ir Iex is not agriveed as this is direction not an order. Once regulations come they are free to challenge at appropriate forum. Let’s see when finally coupling comes, I don’t think it will come anytime soon like minimum year. That too at any stage iex can challenge.
Basis cursory look here are the +ve & -ve for IEX:-
Positives for IEX:-
No Immediate Implementation: The Tribunal clarified that the CERC proceedings dated July 23, 2025, were merely “directions” or a “policy marker” rather than a final self-executing law. Actual implementation of market coupling cannot occur until the CERC makes and notifies separate regulations as required by Regulation 39 of the 2021 PMR.
Protection of Legal Recourse: The judgment explicitly states that IEX is not disabled from challenging the July 23, 2025, proceedings in the future. Once the formal regulations are actually made, IEX can mount a legal challenge against both the new regulations and the original implementation directions.
Safeguards Against Tainted Processes: Due to an ex-parte interim order by SEBI regarding alleged insider trading by certain CERC officials, the Tribunal directed that the CERC must ensure those specific officers are “kept away from the Regulation making exercise with respect to market coupling” to protect the integrity of the process
Acknowledgement of Business Impact: The Tribunal noted IEX’s contention that market coupling could expropriate its business by reducing it to a mere bid-collecting agency, ensuring this concern is part of the judicial record for future challenges.
Negatives for IEX:
The court clearly recognises that the regulator has full power to redesign the market.
Market coupling was already part of the 2021 regulatory framework, this isn’t a brand-new idea.
The regulator’s objective (uniform price discovery, better efficiency) is treated as legitimate and well with its power to legislate on.
The concept of rotating exchanges as MCO and round robin model wasn’t dismissed as absurd or illegal, surprising this wasn’t specifically appealed against by IEX also.
IEX has bought time. The regulator cannot fast-track market coupling without going through a proper, transparent process. This reduces the risk of sudden disruption and scrutiny on CERC has definitely increased manifold. At the same time, the judgment does not kill market coupling. It says the regulator must do it properly. If CERC follows due process and frames regulations correctly, coupling can still happen.
My opinion has been that even if coupling in DAM happens, major market participants wont switch because IEX value prop of DAM + RTM on a single exchange is any day better to alternative of DAM on one exchange + RTM on IEX, given the logistics of margin management on two different exchanges & minimal savings potential for market participants. The benefits even in handpicked shadow pilot data by CERC & Grid India were insignificant to take on the herculean task of drafting coupling rules under an increased scrutiny. Not to mention the recovery of cost, audit, IT infra changes etc.
Let’s see what IEX management has to say on the judgement and whether they contest this straight away in Supreme Court or wait for CERC to draft regulations first.
I also hope management launches a buyback program soon, with IGX IPO planned later this year, there seems to be enough visibility on liquidity with limited reinvestment opportunities in sight.
