Last column the name that appears the most is IDFC. Looks like the domestic funds are buying big time!
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Explains the reason for raise in share price and high volumes.
Lot of fund houses invested in the stock freshly in Dec 2021.
Big News For IDFC, Negotiations with PE Investors for Selling Mutual Fund Business | Exclusive News - YouTube Story says that deal for AMC is at 5,000cr and for Foundation at 1,000cr. Expeted to be closed and announced soon.
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Seems highly unlikely.
IDFC Foundation is a section 8 company, IDFC Ltd will be able to make money from it only if they convert the entity from current NGO status to normal company. - I donāt see any steps taken by the Management in that direction.
Even if we consider the chance that IDFC Ltd will get some cash from the foundation, Foundation have two subsidiaries - DIMMTS & Ideck.
DIMMTS made 2cr PAT last year, Ideck is in losses.
Even if we take book value approach, attributable networth from both the companies to IDFC Ltd is 100cr.
Not sure if one could find a buyer for these @1000cr.
Sources:
IDFC-Subsidiary-AR-2020_21 (1).pdf (1.4 MB)
DIMTS-Teaser-vF.pdf (1.0 MB)
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Vanguard took the position in IDFC and buying MF business means that they are eyeing IDFCās first bank stock indirectly. They will pay a premium to buy MF and that premium will be for getting bank stock at discount. It is a win-win situation for everyone. Vanguard will be the highest bidder and MF business is going to them.
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What is the relation between paying a premium for MF business and getting a stake in IDFC First Bankā¦? 
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I mean, by buying IDFC Limited, they will get a stake in IDFC First at discount irrespective of the fact that who buys MF business i.e. even if they fail to bid successfully.
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Vanguard has index funds which are rule based and have no discretion where to invest or not. they will just follow the stocks listed in the respective benchmark and buy it
Do you even understand what you are writing here with so much confidence, 1-2% in IDFC stock is 10-20 cr of investment? Buying MFs is a 5000-7000 cr investment. Also, teams which are managing both legs are completely different. This doesnt mean that Vanguard can not be the winner in the bidding but linking two is wrong.
Disclosure - Invested for self and clients from much lower levels in several tranches.
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Very sad to hear that the bids are in excess of 4k crores. If they allow global PE firms surely the transaction would be nearly 7k crores
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Updated as per the conversation before 
Present Mcap of IDFC first bank: 29,281 cr
IDFC 36.6% share in IDFCFB = 10,716 cr approx
IDFC AMC value assumption : 3000 cr (After tax)
Total IDFC Ltd value = 13,716 cr
IDFC Market Cap = 10,329 cr
Max Upside: ~25%
This is my crude calculation. Correct me if Iām wrong.
Invested and biased.
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You didnt mention about discount that will be given during merger
From what I have read from various articles, 4000 crs. is the result of the initial bid. The articles said that the competition is expected to heat up as the PE funds are likely to team up with the bidders. My view on each of the bidders:
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Indusind Bank: I think they are likely to team up with either a PE player or as some articles said, with the promoters as right now there are lots of problems going on with their borrowers. They wouldnāt like to decrease their capital position by such a margin at this time. Hence, I think they can be aggresive if they put their bids along with PE funds.
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Bandhan Bank:
Bandhan Bankās holding co. had generated upwards of 10,500 crs. from the OFS in 2020 and they still havenāt bought anything big. Their target was to buy insurance and AMC companies. They are also bidders fro Reliance General Insurance company. They have lots of cash. I think they will be one of the top bidders and can be aggressive.
- Invesco: Invesco is backed by a big fund house.
Donāt have much info about Sundaram.
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This should be Min Upside as the worst case minimum amount they will get is Rs 3,000cr. Also keep in mind that the AMC has 500cr of cash which will not be part of the sale. Then there are funds from the sale of Foundation, Cash on IDFC, NOFHC, Other Subs books etc.
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Thatās correct but I mentioned Max Upside in terms of holding Co discount calculation, future potential is more or less dependent on Mr V. Vaidyanathan 
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