ValuePickr Forum

IDFC First Bank Limited

Is it possible for us to monitor whether this payment ended up happening or not? Worst case (time wise), would we expect this to be revealed in Q2 results?

Related news from 2nd week of July that I could find: https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/franklin-templeton-mf-receives-rs-1252-cr-payment-from-vodafone-idea/76896463

PS: Did anyone attend the virtual AGM which happened on July 30? If so, could you please share your notes or observations? I could not find anything on the internet. And couldn’t attend due to day job.

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It is surprising that Vodafone has not protested against the provision made by IDFC first Bank inspite of the account being standard. I am sure it has shut off any hope of bank financing for Voda till this provisioning goes off from the IDFC books. No bank or financial institution will come forward under such circumstances.

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How does a dying organisation find time for such a thing?
There is no way Reliance let’s Vodafone live.
Either through 5G rollout or through cut throat pricing, Vodafone is the living dead already.
They have anyways submitted evem to the Supreme Court that no bank funding is possible.

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Have u analysed cash flow for Vodafone, Jio boasting of 2
39 cr subs however VLR figure is 77% which shows that actual base is 30 cr, Voda actual base is 27 cr, last quarter EBIdTA margin at 37% despite loss of subscriber. Just a comparison losing 50 Lakh migrant subscriber will add revenue of 500 cr at recharge of 100 which is high nd adding 2 Lakh RedX subscribers will add revenue of 264 cr. Mukesh will not be able to shut Vodafone, it will thrive nd prosper again. Wait nd watxh

Yes, I have attended IDFCB AGM meeting. It was good experience. Let me share few important point which i remembered:

-> Someone asked about mutual fund or credit card scheme near future like other larger bank.
VV- No plan for mutual fund near future, but IDFCB will be launching credit card soon.
-> Someone asked about any plan to reduce 7% interest rate on saving account as it is burden for bank in covid-19 situation.
VV- No plan to reduce interest rate as of now. Yes, IDFCB is providing higher interest rate compare to other bank, but if you see capital first interest rate, it is is 8~9%, so compare to CAPITAL first, 7% is cheaper.(Explained in Annual report)
-> Someone asked about any plan for reversing Vodafone idea provision.
VV- We will not reverse the provision as there is no clear picture on Vodafone idea issue. Bank will reverse the provisioning only when bank find out Vodafone idea issue is resolved completely.
-> Regarding 2000 cr allotment.
VV- We are facing covid-19 like problem first time in history and nobody is completely aware how far it goes. The money is for bank insurance in difficult time. As of now we didn’t see any major problem with IDFCB near future. Those money will used for bank growth if required.
-> Someone asked about plan for opening new branches near future.
VV- We are looking at COVID situation closely and based on that we will take decision whether need to open branches aggressively or not for this year. If covid-19 situation is not coming down, instead of opening branch aggressively, bank will focus on digitization. Already using Video KYC feature.
-> Someone asked about opening personal twitter account.
VV- I find social media is distraction for me. I want to focus on work, there is lot of work daily, have tight schedule and cant handle social media account. There is separate team for Social media account and is handling all the social media query.

Please let me know if any one having specific question related to AGM meeting. I will try to remember and summarize.
I will add more point if i remember.

Thanks

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adding one more point:
Some people asked- How safe my money in IDFCB because we have seen recent issue with PMC bank and Yes bank ?
VV- Your money is completely safe with us, no problem with bank. Some people invested their life saving to this bank. To them, i want say that If you keep money with our bank(saving account, FD, RD etc), your money is completely safe, there is no issue. But some people invested their life saving money to equity. To them, I want to say that you should not invest all your saving to one equity. You should not do that. This is not right way to invest and You should diversify your investment properly.

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Found additional details in the annual report about investments held by the bank. Large percentage of the holdings is required under SLR and it involves holding of government securities but bank also holds additional investments which seems much higher percentage of its total assets compared to other banks such as HDFC Bank.


There are NPA also coming from this portfolio but at much lower percentage than loans issued by the bank.

Asset and liability maturity timeline information is also useful

I would highly recommend reading notes starting on page 182 of the annual report here: https://www.idfcfirstbank.com/content/dam/IDFCFirstBank/invester-relation/IDFC-FIRST-Bank-Limited-Sixth-Annual-Report-FY-2019-20.pdf

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ICICI direct has given a target of Rs 34 for IDFC Bank and has appreciated that the Bank performed well even in Covid situation.

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Thanks for your advice. Point noted.

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@prashant_kishore - Did any one ask about the management to host conference calls for every quarterly results

Yes, so many people asked this question.
I didn’t listen VV reply to this question properly. So, i have not added to above summary. I am not sure about the final decision, but yes many asked this question.

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IDFC Bank Ltd. (IDFB.pdf (216.8 KB)

Goldman Sachs on IDFC First Bank

Not invested

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After Q1 results, Arihant capital has raised the target to Rs 39.

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PrabhudasLilladherPvtLtd_IDFCFirstBank(IDFCFBIN)-Q1FY21ResultUpdate-COVIDimpacttokeepreturnratiosdismal-Sell_Jul_29_2020.pdf (649.8 KB) EdelweissSecuritiesLimited_IDFCFirstBank-Earnings-positivequarteruncertaintylingersresultupdateQ1FY21Hold_Jul_30_2020.pdf (1.3 MB)

Some more reports

Not invested and not planning to invest.

Thanks for sharing. These reports make me more and more confident of relying on independent thought and independent analysis. The exact same set of numbers can always be interpreted as glass half full or glass half empty. The goldman report in specific is funnily incompetent in my humble opinion and I will prove with facts why:

Observe how Goldman essentially forecasts a strictly increasing EPS and ROA and ROE each year, including 1st time positive EPS in 2020 and EPS of 2.4 rupees in 2023. Now if the bank is slowly turning from loss making to profitable with EPS becoming 2.45 in 2023, why would the P/E ratio become lower from 15 in 2022 to 11 in 2023? The entire piece seems like a hit-job to me. These institutions have vested interests front, right and center. If they are overweight on HDFC bank (as an example) or any other portfolio bank, it makes perfect sense for their analysts to interpret numbers for competitors in the worst possible way (often without much logical justification). On the contrary, they would try and paint a very rosy picture for their own portfolio stocks. For these reasons, I prefer to only rely on the facts from such reports, and not the opinions.

Disc: Invested and adding a little every week.

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I was coming with same kind of analysis but it’s good that someone posted the same with relevant facts. Sometimes these reports are so misguiding that any one can spot them in a glance. And then giving a target of Rs 18 sums it up well!

Disclaimer: Invested and adding in every dip.

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The good thing from the point of view of people like us who are investors is that if and when the bank does turn around there will be a lot of institutional money that will chase this story.
Then only the positives will be seen by these ‘experts’.

A telling example of their so called expertise is the fact that everyone used to keep harping on how the bank will not be able to raise CASA since it is so hard, how will they retailise etc etc.
Now no body questions that.
Infact if Covid had not struck then their research recommendations from a year ago would have been looking extremely stupid and they would have started mentioning only the positives of the story- ‘strong private equity backing’, ‘World class management pedigree’, ‘great implementation’ and suddenly the PB target would be 2.
These guys write english essays rather than research reports(most of them) and hence the slow death of active investing (by firms with so skin in the game)

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The p/e target given by them is the current price vis a vis projected earnings. Not their projected p/e with ttm eps in 2022. With the earnings going up the p/e is bound to be lower. So they’re not saying the valuation will keep going down over the years, rather they’re giving you multiple current valuations, based on current and future estimated earnings.

Do agree though that they’re taking a fairly negative view. The bank is essentially a bet on the future, while they’re only looking at the current negative picture. Closely monitoring the moratorium book, vv is known to under promise but if they don’t come to 10% by August, it may be time to book some losses and wait for things to stabilise.

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IDFC First Bank’s book value is very close to current price. Axis Bank is currently trading at P/B multiple of 1.33. I think 1.2 multiple for IDFCFB is possible but more likely to see less multiple expansion than Axis from this level.

Few powerful concept i have learnt and practiced is (after very costly mistakes over the years!):

  1. it is ok to book losses if one is merely shifting from sector/companies with headwind to sector/businesses with tailwind. Rotation.
  2. Point 1. is most efficient use of money and is driven by fundamental and technical view. Fundamentally I strengthen my portfolio by making it strong given current realities. Technically, market pushes up business with tailwind as that is where most of the buying is and so my portfolio becomes resilient. Plus role of hope reduces significantly.
  3. Value investing only works if there is a clear near term trigger. Else cheap may become cheaper before that eventual trigger arrives in the future.

IMHO - Financials is the sector with most headwinds currently. And within financials, most mid-tier banks (RBL, Indusind, IDFC First) and most if not all MFIs are facing lot more headwind than the larger peers (HDFC, ICICI).

Not invested.

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