IDFC First Bank Limited - First Bank Preference for Long Term Investors too?

Thank you for your insights!

I dug up IDFC AR 2024 and 2025 to see the break-up of “Other Expenditure” under “Operating Expenses” and shown below. Other Expenditure is a whopping 54% of Operating Expenses. They do not seem to come down with scale; on the contrary - infact they have grown.

The notes in FY 2025 Annual Report gave the break-up as follows

If “commission to sales agents / BCs” are accounted for in the NIM as is usually the case^; the NIM drops from 6.4% to 5.1%.

A comparison with ICICI Bank shows Other Expenditure to be about a quarter of Operating Expenses for ICICI Bank.

^Accounting standards actually require amortisation over the life of the loan - but we don’t have enough info for accuracy

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Thats spot on with numbers…I just gave a rough calculation in my post earlier…you have substantiated it with numbers…thanks.

These other expenses will only come down, when growth of loan book comes down(in one of the quarters when idfc posted muted loan growth - it’s C2I improved to 67%) …hence VV is riding a tiger, if he tried to get off from the growth path to manage the other expenses and hence C2I, the growth will start hampering…

Eventually he has to live with both(high C2I and high growth), and hence - my earlier posts on RoE being capped at 13% max and hence the multiple re-rating being capped near 1.6-1.7x price to book

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The operating expenses of IDFC are high because it’s a startup bank. And because it’s doing some magical stuff which the other banks can’t even dream of doing.

Less than 20% of IDFC Bank branches would be more than 5 years old and none of it’s branches are more than 10 years old. In the case of HDFC Bank, more than 80% of branches will be more than 5 years old, and at least 60% will be more than 10 years old. It will be the same story if we compare with other established banks like ICICI or Axis or SBI.

When the average branch of IDFC bank is much much younger than those of established banks, you would expect that IDFC bank branches would be doing much lower volume of retail business (retail assets + retail liabilities) per branch than HDFC or ICICI. But the numbers speak differently. Very very young IDFC Bank branches are doing much higher retail business than the much older HDFC bank branches.

How is that even possible? That’s only possible by relying on DSAs and collection agents in the early life of the branches. Over time, as these branches mature, the branches will do more of the work inhouse and rely lesser and lesser on DSAs and collection agents. Then the profitability of each branch will shoot up and consequently that of the whole bank.

And we can already see this play out in the numbers reported by IDFC. In Q2 for example, the total business of the bank grew by 22%, while operating expenses only grew by 11%. That’s operating leverage playing out as the bank branches mature.

The story is again the same if we look at credit cards. In a short 4 years, IDFC has 45 lakhs credit cards - much higher than those of established banks like Indusind and federal Bank, and neck to neck with Kotak Bank - who have all been doing credit cards for a couple of decades. If IDFC can catch up with a giant like Kotak in a short 4 years, then it is likely to have cost a lot of operating expenses.

Don’t look at the opex alone - also look at the magic that has been achieved with those operating expenses.

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Very informative PP1…thank you for your perspective!

To clarify, are you saying that Warburg Pincus and others have “parked” ~7500 crore in the bank and there’s no diligence or target price these private equity firms have when they do these investments? (asking as I saw that you are ex-PE so I assume you would know how these firms operate)

Disclosure: Invested since 2020 with ~20% of portfolio. No transactions in last 180 days.

every organization has their own way of managing investments - Warburg has a long standing relationship with IDFC - do you know that warburg subscribed the fund raise at 62-65 2 years back and then stock price fell to 55 after the subscription. please understand - every organization have humans sitting behind every process. also once there is skin in the game from an institution - it tries to salvage its own investment.

Warberg has shares from capital first days - so its any ways stuck with VV and if you calculate their return on investments - it will not be much high. They are just trying to salvage whatever has been invested. while VV being a good marketeer - he keeps pulling new institutions in his fold. The industry of PE and VC is more of a passing the hat. only one out of 100 investments make impressively good money.

When i had invested in this bank - my thesis was never investment from institutions - it was solely based on operations - and operational efficiency to manage a self sustaining growing bank. which was shattered in 2023 end when VV changed his C2I target from 55% to 65%. It changed all assumptions on RoE and Fund raising.

the important point here is - though all these institutions are coming in fold - the banks equity has risen to such a level - its bigger than even yes bank . You can very well imagine the outcome in times to come :)

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Vineet ji, we may agree with your point to some extent. However, as another member has shared his views, initially the bank needed investments and higher spending. The bank was earlier moving in a negative direction, but today it has not only come into a positive direction, it is actually growing rapidly in that direction.

If the bank had followed your strategy to drive growth, it would have already brought the C2I ratio down to around 55%. In that case, there would have been neither loan growth nor other investments such as credit cards, opening of new branches, and investments in technology. Without these, how could the bank have made such investments?

The bank’s focus is on long-term growth, not on short-term profits.

I have said this earlier as well that the bank should not be viewed based on its equity size but on its market cap. A bank with a market cap of 70k has the potential to reach 5–6 lakh, which may be achieved over the next 6–7 years.

One more important point: Warburg Pincus had fully exited its stake in March 2024, and the ₹7,500 crore investment is a fresh investment. Warburg Pincus would not make a fresh investment without thorough due diligence, especially after having completely exited just last year.

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Sometimes i wonder, was it really necesscary to cut reward points for IDFC cards? When all the banks was cutting, i felt better was to hold on for some more time to get some more customers. Are they really relying on credit card points to boost their bottom line? Disc: Invested IDFC First Bank slashes benefits: Mayura, Ashva, and more credit cards hit hard

One has to think how a start up bank translates into high operating expenses.

Are there any fixed costs associated with the bank that lead to high expense initially followed by lower expense? Is a bank branch associated with a high fixed cost upfront?
I believe most of the bank branches are in rental premises so it is a variable cost. Even furniture, hardware are capitalized expenses and not fixed expenses running through income statements. Bank employees per branch can be easily scaled as business has grown.

Most of the items listed in the expense account of the bank should be linked linearly with the scale and volume of the bank compared to what is being portrayed by management.

It bothers me that the bank puts out 100+ slide presentations every three months but has scant details about other expenditures compared to other banks such as Kotak Mahindra Bank or ICICI Bank in annual reports from 2021-2024.

Recently the bank has started including a few more details but these are insufficient especially since IDFC First investment thesis hinges on two pillars of bank maintaining NPA ratios and bringing expenses inline with other banks.

As it has been pointed out, operating expenses are increasing with the size of the bank and not coming down.

How much is branch banking relevant for IDFC First or any other bank? Bank MD has talked about technology stack and app built by the bank, how is that supposed to help the bank achieve higher ROA and ROE? Is that working out as expected? Very long presentations, frequent interviews, speeches and annual reports fail to shed light on these questions.

Does the bank need to enter all these new businesses on the deposit side and on the lending side to be in start up mode after merger in 2018? Did Capital one have all lending business that bank wants to be in? If those were existing lending businesses then they should not be in the start up stage. If those were not part of Capital First then why does the bank need to be in these business and why does it need to be those businesses now? Vaidya has highlighted India’s growth potential multiple times so does that need continually investing to expand product portfolio or does need scaling of existing lending products?

There are specialized gold loan companies, credit card companies, and wealth management companies. Does a bank need to compete with all these companies and in all possible product categories when it is a start up bank? It might be the wish of MD to build a universal bank ASAP but I disagree that the bank needs to launch all these products to be a successful bank.

Indian investor will be better off expanding investing pool to consider companies listed outside of India. There are lot of good established banks and other companies delivering great results in US, Canada, Europe and Japan.

Vaidya had also indicated that micro-finance issue would be resolved during H2 of 2026. I never understood why bank chose to dilute heavily around 1.1 P/B ratio. Bank had raised funds at much higher valuation. As per management predictions, fundamental outlook was going to be improving in few months so what was the need to dilute so heavily at such a low valuation.

Vaidya praising P/E investors as marquee and very grateful to have them invested seems like he doesn’t value existing shareholders who have invested in the bank with long term mindset and have been and willing to be shareholders for the long term.

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Yes really agree, and given the current environment and intense competition to stand out as one of the few banks that survive we have to open multiple sources of products to generate income in the long run.Like Uday kotak said, there will be only few banks that are going to fight it out and its going to be intense unlike VV who said we need more banks. And we know who are the Top 4. Even ICICI and HDFC had reduced the CI i think within 5 years of operation to around 30- 40%. For IDFC to reach there its going to take another decade i feel .Disc- Invested and these are pain points of shareholders that we are voicing out and not that we are complaining or naysaying. We belived in VV and we invested in the long term story. Just how long is the question? Hope to get there soon..

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Idfcfirst has reached a stage where there is now, for the most part, only one problem to be solved : Cost to Income Ratio.

Back in 2022, there was a list of things that were broken. This thread was full of nay-sayers.

I am invested in Coforge. They too have diluted equity by 25% i believe, and the stock crashed. But, is it bad in the long run? Not at all. It is the only path forward.

With each passing year Cost to Income will improve. But the market won’t wait for a good number or 2029 as guided. It will factor in the future well in advance.

Till those pretty numbers are reached, like for Kotak Bank, it will be very difficult to give a +/- 10% range to the stock price.

I beleive VV has put everything on the line with this bank, when he decided to merge Capital First. This is the sentiment I am riding on.

I feel, VV’s capability and credibility is to be reviewed only once Market Cap of 5 Lakh Crore is reached. Till then, I feel safe with this “Jockey”.

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I dont understand.
People have been calling this stock a multibagger in the making for what half a decade now?
Only number that might be a multibagger would be the number of shares outstanding.
For the past 3 years there have been promises of getting the costs under control. When?
Now I have not been selling my position as I have not found another appropriate investment where the money would go. But seriously? Wheres so much optimism coming from?

That’s a testament to the competitive intensity in banking space, which implies cost to income will take longer to come down, so long as there’s some directional progress, there’s some reason to hold.

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Let’s see the timeline.
Half decade = five years ago, this bank was in a mess. Bank was in the nascent stage, and Covid struck. We only had VVs words to hang on to. There was no growth no numbers nothing on any front.

2022 average price was around 35. It is a multibagger since.

What are these costs? And why they aren’t “under control”.

Well, for the most part these costs are money put into growth: new branches, credit card department.

If they didn’t invest in growth, then costs would be under control, but apparently their core investors (warburg pincus) don’t want that. They, we, all want growth.

My take is, CI ratio will improve with each Q. Loan book growth is intact, while expense are reducing. Last Q had only 25 new branches.

I believe, market won’t wait for 2029 for RoA > 1.0

With the massive liquidity flowing into markets, this gem won’t be ignored.

To give u a perspective @Raptor4289 Kotak Bank loan book size 4L Cr, market cap 5L Crore.

Idfcfirst bank 2.5L Cr book size and market cap 75K Cr

The difference is big.

This 75K to 5L difference will reduce with each passing year. I don’t see any contrary evidence. Trajectory on all important parameters is improving, albeit on a snails pace with CI ratio.

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Apples to Oranges comparison.

Kotak has many juicy subsidiaries which are thriving by themselves. IDFC’s subsidiaries are still in nascent stage I suppose.

Kotak Securities (broking) · Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance · Kotak Mahindra General Insurance · Kotak Mutual Fund (AMC), and more..

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I guess, the point I am trying to drive home is, in 2006 Kotak was 60 Rs, in 2016 it was 600.

Idfcfirst too is well managed, no evidence suggests otherwise.

Idfcfirst has a Nbfc background, so I feel they will continue to grow on lending front more than other verticals.

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I want everyone’s views on brokerage houses. About a month ago, UBS felt that IDFC First Bank’s valuation was expensive and that profit growth was not matching the valuation.

After the UBS report, the stock rallied by 8–10%, and today Nomura has come out with a report saying that IDFC First Bank has a 23–25% upside and that growth will accelerate further.

What changed in just one month that there is such an opposite difference between the UBS and Nomura reports? Can someone explain this?

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sell side analyst report have no meaning in my opninion…considering how reports are made. Have worked in the industry and have myself made reports on banks in 2007 for one of the brokers - report likhney key baad - boss decide karta hai kya target price bhejna hai…us hisaab sey sari report adjust kar di jaati hai last minute mei. so take it with a pinch of salt and move forward.

create your own opinions, and work on your own conviction. thats my only suggestion.

i can give plenty of examples of 500-600 target given by reports when stocks were near 450-475…and stocks went down to 200-100 in 6 months…and these brokerages were no where to be seen.

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To be honest, I don’t take such reports very seriously. At max I read them to get their perspective

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Best way to analyze the stock is look at its 5 Year and 10 Year Median P/E, P/B, MCap/Sales for valuation filters and also go through management con calls and annual reports to judge fundamentals and Quality of management. Rest all is mostly noise.

You can check the reports from various brokerages about ITC in the last few months and see the price today. It will give sufficient indication. Also you can check reports on Coal India during 2022, HDFC Bank during 2023 when stock price was stagnant. Most of the reports will be painting negative picture at that time and now prices could be at different level.

Your own estimates and conviction is the only parameter which is important.

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