I just typed out a fresh article and then saw this. Superb. Still adding my thoughts. Though mostly repetitive to re energize thinking within VP.
Types of Black Swans
Had some lively discussion on black swans but felt that although many have read the book the understanding of the message is not clearly understood. It seems here most people simply believe a black swan means it cannot be predicted 
So here is a short primer to help understand the types of black swans.
First. The mind altering book by Taleb starts by explaining to you that just because you can see only white swans does not mean that black swans do not exist.
The message is, you can see swans. Just that you can see the white swans. So you have to think of what are the potential black swans.
Since this forum is dedicated to investing, here is a short compilation of thought processes of investing swans.
The Unknowns
Example: A war with another country.
Other examples; currency flash crashes, inflation, deflation etc. There is also terrorist attacks, internal anarchy / civil unrest within the country, the death of a state head etc. Basically, things that have happened at some point or the other somewhere in the world. There are many such possibilities.
We know they are a remote possibility but they can happen. But it is not possible to make investing decisions around it.
The Unknowables
Example: A Nuclear Accident. Remember Chernobyl. There are again many such possibilities. Some of these can be new situations to our country or world which we cannot know in advance.
Again, a remote possibility but cannot plan investing decisions around it.
Solution: Always 15 % portfolio Cash. This can allow some advantage to buy some stock or asset if above two types of situations develop.
The Knowns
The markets will rise. fall. rise. fall. rise. So then we already know of the black and white swans. There is no one who invests who does not know that the above happens. Then why does it keep happening? If we have 100 years of data to prove it, still why do humans fall for it again and again? Because we just do not know when the white or black swans will present themselves so we keep dancing or ignoring / avoiding. Usually due to greed or fear.
Solution: A strong mental framework for capital allocation that helps reduce drawdowns and provides more opportunities. This works for those who are willing to keep the discipline and cannot be built at the drop of a hat. One needs to have planned to a fair degree and decided on the course in advance for these scenarios.