@sridhar, morganite crucible looks like a good breakout from flag pattern. targets could be 440 plus.
@subir. fertiliser stocks currently seem to be running on sentiments. Will need to see how the new govt frames its fert policy.
@sandriano, goodricke seems like a good breakout candidate.
Dear Hitesh
I have been investing in stocks based on the opinion of seniors like you. Now they have run up a lot and I would like to know if the following stocks of mine are compounding kind of stocks which you can invest and sort of forget or they have run ahead of fundamentals. Actually there are a quite a lot of stocks which are looking ripe for investment, but I don’t know it will be wise to dump such quality stocks yet and invest in them. Can you please separate the wheat from chaff among the following
Ajanta,Astral, Cera,Dhanuka,HSIL, PI Ind, Selan, Poly Medicure, Shilpa, Symphony, VST Tillers, ING Vysya
Thanks
Dear Hitesh
i forgot to add KSCL Suven, Alembic and Mayur
Regards
Hitesh Bhai
Would like to hear your view about JB Chemicals. It seems that Ukraine/ Russia issue still not resolved. Do you think that long term story is still intact?
Also do you have any update about RS Software ? Is it the right time now to invest in some beaten down software stock?
Thanks in advance.
Irshad
Hi Hitesh, Is there a flag pattern on Aarti drugs charts?? It is up 7% on high volumes today.
Hi Hitesh,
Do you think there is still undervaluation in Dynemic Products @ CMP of 41 ( EPS for FY14 is 9 and PE of 4.5)?
Are you studying any undervaluation/turnaround play currently ?
@ashwin, Most of the stocks you listed are compounders but will have their blips off and on which needs watching. Stocks like suven will have patterns like snakes and ladders.
@irshad, JB chem seems to be on track. Valuation wise also not too expensive though not too cheap. Among software stocks, one can even look at top tier stocks like infosys and tech mahindra.
@rohit, yes the stock has broken out of flag pattern.
@ramesh kumar, I dont track dynemic products. Its a sort of cyclical stock and needs to be treated as one.
Hi Hitesh,
Could you please provide your input for shilpa madicare (if the dollar gets stable at 60, do you see forex loss)? is it a good buy level if looking for 20% return, any buy range for this. if i want to choose between Polymedicare,shilpa,ajanta or alembic?..which one or two is good enough.
Thanks,
Milind
@Milind, We have threads on each of the companies you mentioned with management q&a also put up by donald. You can go through the respective threads and decide on your choice.
The aim of this forum is to educate investors in making smart and right choices. Its not a recommendation service or a guide on what to buy, when to buy and at what price to buy. That is best left to individual investor. As said before the main aim is to make better informed investors of all of us.
Thanks Hitesh. I was reading threads and would keep continue reading. Just finding it difficult to develop conviction as my previous experience with investing is not good. But i will keep reading and learning.
Hiteshbhai - how should one decide amongst various pharma companies - ajanta , natco , alembic , Shilpa , aurobindo etc ? I still haven’t been able to get my head around how to pick a good business . I did go through a brilliant piece which gave a pharma overview in the sector overview and now need some guidance in nailing down the key factors for picking a company .
How would you evaluate the companies mentioned above and which would you pick ?
Varun,
I think each company has its plus and minus points.
I track ajanta, shilpa, alembic and think all of them are good for next 2-3 years.
Key remains not to get too much carried away by the run ups and buy gradually since most of these stocks have run up a lot.
If you cant decide on specific company, it might make sense to a few of these companies as a basket and treat it as a single stock so that all the headache of analysing each company in details is avoided.
regards
hitesh.
Varun, can you please share the pharma overview sector link?
Hi Hitesh,
Hope you are doing fine. Read the following interview of Nitin Gadkari where he talks about his roadmap for roads.
He is well known for making the Mumbai-Pune expressway happen and given that, I think he might be able to make some impact. What is your view on companies that provide equipment for the road construction industry? Companies like Sanghvi Movers, Action COnstruction etc. These have already run up but if one takes a 3-5 year view, have these types of stocks just started on their journey?
regards
HG
HG,
I dont track the names you suggested but based on the logic they seem interesting. But if you have a 3-5 year view I think things like housing finance companies and pharma companies offer a better risk reward profile.
Hi Hitesh,
Just wanted to know if you have any info on what is the best proxy to play online retail boom going on in India. flipcart/snapdeal etc. I was wondering the best proxy wud be to play logistics companies enabling them them deliver good v fast. They also must be common to many players. Do you know any listed company in this space, which these companies are using as a preferred choice. This cud be the only way to participate in this growth story till flipcarts are listed.
Thanks for your help.
Best
Santosh
Hi Santhosh
Read a couple of articles on Economic times about the Packaging industry supplying to ecomm firms:
1). http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-09/news/50448111_1_flipkart-myntra-e-commerce
Dynaflex is unlisted so maybe we should catch a company thats either a competitor or a supplier to Dynaflex. There is a small company called ShreeAjit that could be in this industry but need to research further to see if they are really part of the value chain.
Regards
Hari
Hi Santosh,
This question is directed towards Hitesh but I am chipping in with my views as I feel strongly about logistics as a sector and have a strong conviction about it [however suggest you to develop your own conviction after reading and analysing available resources 
].
I will reply to your post in the thread for logistics sector in detail. I would post some very good links. I suggest you spend some time going through this links, which I am sure would be very helpful and informative for you if you are interested in logistics space.
Personally I have created a logistics basket in my portfolio where in I hold Gati, TCI, Gateway Distriparks and Gujarat Pipavav. For me all these put together allow me to participate in the overall logistics sector (micro as well as macro plays). But please bear in mind that these stocks have run up a lot in the short term (I hold them since very low levels), therefore there may be short term volatility in them. Although I hold them with a 10 year perspective and believe thatit is a very long term story.
The e-commerce biz of companies like GATI and TCI is growing at >100% CAGR.
The revenue contribution is in high teens but slated to grow manifold in future.
GATI has all online retailers as its client except Flipkart.
Standalone for e-commerce biz GATIposted a topline of Rs 12 crore in FY12, Rs 25 crore in FY13, and expects to see a figure of Rs 70-75 crore for FY14.
Market size of express logistics segment during 2011-12 was estimated at Rs. 10,870 crores (about USD 1.8 billion). The industry is expected to grow at 17 per cent per annum compared to 11 per cent growth estimated for the overall logistics industry to Rs. 17,450 crores (about USD 2.9 billion) in the next three years.
ButI believethat Logistics (express delivery, e-commerce, cold storage chains, warehouses, ports, other import-export services, etc.,)will not only be about e-commerce but it will be a major beneficiary of the uptick in economic cycle and India’s rising contribution to world trade. If India is to be a $5 trillion economy by 2025 then I find this sector hard to ignore.
This space requires a lot of capital to grow and newer and smaller players are finding it very difficult to grow and are shutting shops due to lack of capital, which augurs well for companies like above which have established infrastructure on a pan India basis.
I will post links in the logistics thread which give lot of information on this spcae with respect to trying to assess the potential of this sector. The link for logistics thread is http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/untested-worth-a-look/132771546#956739190 Link: …/…/…/untested-worth-a-look/132771546#956739190
Apologies Hitesh to have chipped in with my views as the question was directed towards you. But thought of giving my views as I am invested in the sector.
Cheers!!!
thanks HR for the reply.
I think to play the online retail boom, Blue Dart remains a great company. Since it has run up far ahead of its financials, one needs to wait for an appropriate opportunity to load up.
Hi Hitesh,
I agree. The expensive valuations due to the run up is precisely the reason I thought of waiting for an appropriate opportunity to enter Blue Dart.
At the same time throw away valuations of Gati, TCI etc when they were trading at 35-40 levels compelled me to take a position in them. I had taken a position with a very long term view and without any expectation of making any decent return on them in the next couple of years. Luckily they have moved up though.
One interesting fact is that RK Damani has stake in all three of them i.e. Blue Dart, Gati and TCI!
Cheers!!!
