shashi,
I now have no hesitation in increasing my positions even after price rise once I am convinced that the story is good and still attractive at cmp.
I increased my positions in symphony after attending the AGM as I felt much more bullish. Similarly I added more position after canfin after looking at q3 fy 14 results.
I think it takes some effort and mental strength to do this… Once u do it and succeed, this block will be removed.
regards
hitesh.
I dont have much idea about MPS… Ayush might be a better person to ask the question.
Shashi as Hitesh bhai has mentioned, once you do it and succeed, the block ( price anchoring/little more stress due to increased exposure ) can be overcome…
VST
For example you bought 10 @600 = 6,000.
You double your position 10 @800 = 8,000.
Total 20 @700 = 14,000.
Target =1,000
If you don’t double, the profit will be 3,960 at 66 % for 6,000…
If you double, profit will be 5,880 at 42 % for 14,000…
Net will be 24 % for additional 8,000.
In case if you think you can earn more than 24% for additional capital in other stocks then you need not double…
Regards
mallikarjun
My thought Process goes like this:
**1). Ride the winning stock: **
Keeping aside everything, I always like to ride the winning stock. For example if you see my portfolio I created a position in ING but didn’t add. GRUH if you see is loaded more. But that have clearly added money to the portfolio. I always add to the winning stock.
2). Size of the portfolio:
If Size of the portfolio is small, then you should not worry too much about allocation. You can be in 2 or 3 winning stocks. That’s it. It is commonsensical to grow faster on smaller amounts of capital.
3). Nature of the business:
This is your comfort level in the business you are invested in. **As Jesse Livermore clearly points out “If you can’t sleep with your existing stocks. Bring it back to a comfortable level.” **
Sometimes you will find that you have to choose one in above three. There are no hard fast rules for selecting one. It is a dynamic process.For example in a bull market you can ride a winning stock keeping aside nature of the business a bit and in a bear market you do the opposite. I mean you must go with commonsense.
Thanks,
Surya.
You calculation is logical and commonsensical and good. But I think a normal investor will get confused doing such calculations on 10 stocks in the portfolio over and again.
Just go ahead. Your thought process is good. You will find a better and easier way.
Thanks,
Surya.
Dear Hitesh?
Do you still own Greenply Ind and do you have any views on it or anything in that sector? Zydus Wellness has come down a lot.Do you still like it?
Regards
ashwin,
greenply was only an undervaluation play and once that got out, it was time to move out. Since then I also havent look at it too much… Basically the business is not so great but undervaluation was there at that time… esp when there was a strong appetite for the smaller and mid caps.
zydus wellness is a few trick pony… their main turf is the everyuth brand and that is now under serious thread due to the barrage of produts from other guys. sugarfree is the best thing that they own… but again they have a huge huge market share and market for the product needs to increase drastically for them to show strong growth. nutralite doesnt seem to be firing great guns and competing with amul would be difficult. actilife is not doing as expected.
@surya kant… Its nice to read your comments… keep them coming.
hitesh.
Hi Hitesh,
Are you familiar with an Ahmedabad based Co. called Adi Finechem ? Have been tracking it off n on for the last 3-4 years an appears to be a steady performer. Would appreciate your views. Thanks,
Rajeev
@rajeev jawahar,
I dont have any idea about adi finechem.
If you want to look at something really really undervalued inspite of good performance look at dynemic products.
hitesh.
Hi Hitesh,
What is your call on Ahmednager Forgings?
Hiteshbhai,
Any Idea about Dynemic Products limited. Have come out with very good resluts , is into manufacture of Food colours etc
Yes, I took an initial position after Q2 results in Dynemic, added more yesterday n today after Q3 numbers, which were quite amazing. It indeed is a small world!
Take a look at Adi if you get the time. I think you’ll like it.
Regards…
Dynemic products acquire land at dahej foe unit III for further expansion
Hi Hitesh,
What do u think of force motors? Recently it is actively trading for after stake aquasition.
Regards
Bose
Hi Hitesh
Can VST tillers be bought at CMP for a 2-3 year view?
I have been following the stock since 400 odd, still looks undervalued, though I am not sure of the consistency in earnings.
Sunil
Hi Hitesh
After reading various Threads of valuepickr, now my conviction level is increased…Planning to move from MF to Stocks…Can you tell the picking order of these stocks Ajanta Pharma,Kaveri Seeds,Poly Medicure,Mayur Uniquoters,PI Industries@ current valuations. Planning to hold with 2 - 3 years view.
-Pavan
@vsbose babu, I dont have any idea about force motors.
@sunil bakshi… vst tillers i feel most of the juice in the shorter term is out of it… If there is some serious re rating it can go much higher. I am working with eps figures of around 90-100 for fy 14 and around 120-130 for fy 15 (mainly due to better contribution from tractor segment) which leaves some more upsides.
@ pavan morishetty… all the stocks u listed are great businesses to own but all of them have run up recently… If u are interested in investing u can buy around 20% of allocated sum in all of them and then wait to add on declines…
Hi Hitesh,
Even if considering the 120 eps and it taking a pe of 10-12. Will 1200-1400 not possible by next march end for vst.
@dinesh verma,
vst tillers has usually commanded a PE of around 6-10 in the past and hence I mentioned that if there is re rating the returns could be good. Otherwise from now on it will track earnings with PE close to 9-10… But looking at the craze for quality stocks in this markets, there is a possibility of vst getting some higher valuations due to possibility of higher contribution from the higher margin tractors business.
hitesh.
Hello Hitesh Bhai,
Do you see a flag pattern in Kaveri for daily charts?
