Sir, after merger or demerger how to calculate companies future revenue, profit,Ebita, market cap of company, eps etc. example sequent scientific, velarise.
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@hitesh2710 sir, would like to have your view on the current evolving situation in the world. as crude oil price rise and indian markets are showing significant weakness compared to other markets, we would like to hear some words of advice from you
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We have had similar wars since past few years. Ukraine Russia, India Pak, Iran Israel ( earlier) etc. The slight difference that is seen in current war is the spike in crude prices due to the issue of strait of Hormuz.
First order effect of war is panic and pandemonium. This can be followed by a rebound as ferocity of war reduces. Then second order effects start showing up with countries most affected by wars taking long time to make a comeback. There will be some countries not directly involved with the wars, but still have corrected due to the initial panic. They will have lesser second order impacts. Say India is not directly involved in the war but there will be marginal impact due to crude impact and hence higher import bill. But once war subsides, and oil cools down and settles down in a range, things quickly attain equilibrium, and markets start taking things normally.
Each moderate to severe correction will throw up opportunities for next leg of rally. The sectors and stocks that will outperform will change each time. Our focus should be to figure out which stocks will be the winners of the next leg of market rally whenever that happens. Idea should be to observe stocks that are holding strong, or better still, stocks that are the first to start making 52 week highs, or break out of trading ranges, or something similar. Then study the fundamentals, and try to figure out reason why these should outperform going ahead. If the technical and fundamental picture are in sync, it makes sense to start buying in lots as uncertainties related to such situation can persist for longer than we expect.
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Thanks for sharing your insights sirā¦ how do you see the impact of LNG supply issues.. in my view this could pose bigger challenge for industries as we saw the effects in Europe when Ukraine war startedā¦
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Greetings Hitesh Jiā¦ it is almost two months since your insight on market scenarioā¦lot of flux in political, economic and social scenario.. both international and within our country..Is AI going to impact traditional businessesā¦ is there a need for fresh look at portfolios..? what is your stance in this situationā¦ will be grateful if you can share your thoughts ..
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The Iran war keeps dragging on and what was expected to be a 2-3 weeks affair is not ending as expected. The direct and indirect impacts of war were felt by our markets in last few months. But as happens with almost all scenarios, in the initial phase, there is a lot of fear and over reaction on either side. This is usually followed by a phase wherein markets take stock of the situation in a more measured way and adjusts accordingly. And then businesses find ways to adjust to situations post these events.
Our markets look to have climbed the wall of worry and now have been showing resilience in last few days. USDINR, crude prices etc all have been unfavorable and still markets show resilience. Small and midcaps are even more resilient. We formed bottom close to 22k for Nifty and are trying to hover around 24k as of now.
A lot of stocks and sectors have shown strong rallies post the bottom formation, and continue to show strength of varying degrees.
I have been stock and sector specific and as mentioned before had been watching for those that started showing resilience and outperformance coming out of the bear market.
I think sectors showing such characteristics broadly are financials ( microfinance in particular, smaller private banks etc), power and energy, metals, sugar, etc. Going ahead my guess is while overall markets keep moving up, there will be individual sector rotation. While one or more sectors take a pause after a strong rally, a couple of more sectors will start showing rallies for some time. But overall my focus will most likely be on the sectors mentioned above.
Regarding AI affecting businesses, I donāt have much expertise on the subject. But in investing and portfolio structuring there will be stocks and sectors that will throw up winners, and its our job to find them and latch on to them.
Personally I remain bullish for next few weeks and months, and unless the war situation escalates drastically, will maintain my view.
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Thanks for your valuable insights, analysis and guidanceā¦ as a long term investor staying invested through the uncertainty is always the litmus test.. having done so..looks like it time to rebalance or addā¦ it is interesting to note your positive bias at this stage..
Hitesh ji,
HBL Engg is on a downward spiral eventhough there is no fundamental changes in the outlook on the company, which has impressive product lineup in sunrise sectors. Still it is languishing, perhaps market is not convinced of its scalability. In your above post, HBL is not finding a mention. Do you continue to hold/ pruned the holding. HBLās business prospects. Your take on this. Thank you.
I beg to give my observation here. HBL is currently quoted around 26 PE on TTM EPS, not very cheap. Itās yearly high and low is 1122 and 542 respectively. So it is not languishing. But ATH was on declaration of 2025 Q2 result which astounded the market. After that the promoter is on record that such results are onetime and not expected to be repeated in near future. So from all aspects it is available at reasonable level.
Having said that, let me clarify that I see it as a technology stock and should quoted higher. With a proven track record, presence in sun rise sector, quality management and clear growth path, I am sure we will see it much higher in a good market. In the meanwhile , if it trades lower, in my opinion, it will be an opportunity to buy.
This is my personal opinion and treat it as biased.
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HBL remains one of the top holdings for me as of now. The earlier post you referred to was about sectors showing strength and HBL as yet has not shown higher relative strength as compared to a lot of other stocks mentioned there.
I was not discussing my holdings. The post was about where strength was visible at that point of time.
Coming to HBL, q4 results were lacklustre and had some one offs. But that is the nature of the business. It will always be lumpy in terms of quarterly results. And hence there will continue to be wild price swings in stock price. Management gave a press note kind of announcement post q4 FY 26 results and they talk about significant growth in sales and profits for fy 27. And logically also based on their Kavach order book in terms of loco and track kavach, this looks possible. The defence opportunities if they fructify meaningfully can be a good optionality.
As of now HBL remains a hold for me, and I would not venture out to take a big call on the holding.
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@hitesh2710, hello Hitesh sir, how are you? Itās been a while sir we hv not seen your post/comment. Hope all is fine.
Sir, looking at the current macro economic conditions because of war, super el nino, trade choke points how do you see Indian market conditions overall? May be, it will impact q1 results but looks more scary.
Which sector are you tracking now? Any views on pharma ? Honestly, i am not we have any sector with reasonable valuation anymore.
Looking forward for your reply
Thanks
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Hello, Everything is fine with life. Except the fact that markets and most of the stocks in portfolio have not gone anywhere since September 2024. Of late things seem to be improving for the broader markets with individual stocks and sectors showing some signs of bottoming out and look ready to start rallies.
The past few months have taught us the virtue of patience. And the ability to hold stocks that dont move much despite a lot of positives showing up consistently has been tested. I consider that too as an experience in my development as an investor.
There have been a lot of dark clouds in past few weeks and months in terms of war, oil on the boil, macro risks, currency risks and so on and so forth. But markets have been trying to navigate through all these worries and seem to be gathering some momentum for strong upward momentum. When exactly that momentum begins is any oneās call.
Personally, as mentioned before I found valuation comfort in financials and to be more specific the microfinance sector. Most of these companies have been delivering turnaround and growth numbers since past 2 or more quarters. Management commentary also has been encouraging in spite of macro picture looking worrisome. And to top it all, these stocks have been consolidating after breaking out from 12-18 months highs and have not been correcting sharply inspite of sharp market dips. Some of them were available at a decent discount to book value and at cheap PE ratios inspite of good results..
Just to give an example, Satin credit was available at below book value, at cheap valuations and the NPA look optically bcos most of their lending is covered under CGFMU govt scheme as per their latest concall. Promoters took preferential allotment of warrants at 260 rs when stock price was around 235, and book value was 260, and SEBI mandated formula set the price for allotment at 222. In their announcement they have put up these details and reason for taking allotment at higher than needed price was that they had a lot of confidence in their business. Now this might be just optics and showbaazi, or might be the real deal and that is for us to figure out.
Regarding pharma sector it has been under my watchlist and I am still to zero in on any stocks from that sector having been fully invested in HBL and financials.
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Hitesh Bhai. How do you see the ai theme stocks. Had huge run ups. Equally the traditional IT industry is taking a hammering. Thanks
I missed the entire AI theme stocks in the Indian markets. Besides I did not have much idea about how to ride them.
Indian IT pack is at the receiving end in the current market. I was just looking at the sector leader TCS and its stock price has fallen from 4500 plus in September 2024 to current levels of 2030, which is a lot of value destruction in a large cap company. And fundamentally also these stocks had not been showing much growth and were quoting at valuations not in sync with the growth. So the market is punishing these stocks. For some time these stocks found temporary support because of repeated buybacks given by these companies. Overall unless we see any signs of bottom formation, I would avoid venturing out to buy these as of now.
I see a lot of folks wanting to buy these names trying to think about the wealth creation they did in the past. But structurally the Indian IT story seems to be on a sticky wicket and its difficult to imagine how things are going to pan out.
There can be counter trend rallies within a bear market too, and folks who are good at spotting and riding these might attempt to do so. But when there are a lot of other options where there is sectoral tailwind, and where chances of wealth creation for longer term are much higher, I prefer to look at those sectors and stocks within.
Just to give an example of what happens when an expensive stock undergoes de rating due to sectoral headwinds and stiff competition, check out Asian paints. It topped out at between 3500-3600 by posting 3 tops in this region between January 2022 to July 2023. Post that it has been largely in a corrective mode and has recently posted two bottoms closer to 2100 levels in March 2025 and March 2026. Currently its around 2700.. For anyone holding this stock considering it a blue chip, market dominant company, there has actually been negative returns in 4 years. In the same time a lot of stocks have gone up multiple times.
So its better to avoid catching stocks that have gone out of fancy and are undergoing de rating because of change in business dynamics.
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