Ur views on bajaj finance? Has it become like asian paint and dmart. I think its growth is still intact. But why market is not valuing it? Ur insights please?
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@hitesh2710 sir are ur views on Oriental Aromatics still intact after the recent draw down??
What is ur fundamental thesis on it??
Hiteshji,
The FMCG stocks like Nestle, Hindunilever and Brittania have been hitting 52 week lows or trading close to it. Is it an opportune time to invest in them with a two year view?
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Hello Hitesh sir , cartrade recently come at 52 week high available at IPO price , volume is good , in my opinion wait for all time high breakout with little consolidated at ipo price , than we should take position, learning technicals, disc no position only in watchlist.
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Cartrade recently crossed its previous post IPO high at 1618 which was last posted in August 2021. A stock crossing its previous all time especially during a weakish market is definitely a stock of interest for followers of momentum investing.
I see two problems with the current set up.
First he stock price has nearly doubled in last couple of months from around 875 to current levels of 1600 plus. This last run has been very sharp and probably might warrant some kind of cooling off.
Second is the overall state of the broader market which shows a weakish undertone. When the overall markets are weak its very difficult for individual stocks to maintain strong uptrends. There will of course be exceptions, but in general the odds are against it.
In the chart I have shared (weekly chart) there are two back to back rounding consolidations marked on chart and a breakout from the higher rounding structure at around 1050 with a big candle with huge volumes was the best time to get inā¦ The risk reward here was very favorable.
While looking at breakouts, its important to favor the breakouts where before the breakout from the key resistance ( it can be a 1,2,3 or more year high, or some other key resistance) there has been some kind of consolidation. This consolidation can be in the form of sideways rectangular, rounding structure, triangular, or any other form of consolidation.
In markets like the current markets, its a good time to make a list of good companies, either based on fundamentals or technicals, or preferably a combination of both. And then see how they are behaving and if they show the right kind of structure, taking support and showing consolidation at key regions.
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The FMCG names you mentioned and other companies in the same sector have been correcting for a while. So for someone with a very very long term view, maybe it makes sense to look at them. I personally would prefer to see some kind of early bullish signs before considering a position. As of now I donāt have any views on any of these names.
@as0067 OAL has corrected significantly after having a strong run up. I had a smallish position and got stopped out once key supports had been broken.
@Abhishek_Kumar2 I donāt track Bajaj finance, Asian paints, or Dmart. I usually am not into large caps except where I find good risk reward equations.
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Hello @hitesh2710 sir, Also Can you share your views on Tata motors, HAL, Axita cotton, CDSL, Sula and Cello. I have invested on above and in loss of ~25% ( Except CDSL) . If you can share your views than it will be helpful.
Hi hitesh bhai good evening . Hope you are doing well.
Are you tracking Geospatial space and does the companies listed interest you. The scope of growth looks good.
These days most companies that look interesting have a higher % of govt linked orders to them.
Your views would help thanks
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@hitesh2710 Hir Sir, a novice investor here. I was recently studying BAID FINANCE and it is showing some kind of positive signs. Promoter holding has gradually increased. Company is generating consistent profits. In a market of financing where large players are not focussing. Management is father and 2 son trio. Both the sons have education in the finance space. Therefore, overall outlook is looking fine to me for long term perspective. Would be greatful if you have any opinion on it, or can just quickly go through its statements for a young and newbie like me. Regards.
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Geospatial space I think has two main companies to talk about, namely Genesys, and CE insysā¦ Both the companies and the sector details have been discussed in very good details by @phreakv6 ā¦ I think it is more than enough for anyone to start looking and researching the companies. I do not have more to add on the companies or the space, as my understanding of the subject is limited.
@mahesh_mishra I donāt track Tata Motors, HAL, Axita, CDSL or any other list of stocks you have mentioned.
@omram I have no idea nor have heard about Baid Finance.
@Rahul_Behera I have stopped disclosing my portfolio since a long time and donāt know how it helps anyone. If one has to invest on oneās own, it has to be on his/her own conviction and for that research has to be done by the person investing and should not be dependent on what someone else is buying or holding. I keep putting up charts, views on any company I am interested from time to time with the requisite disclosures.
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Hi sir
Whatās your view on Lupin.
It cross itās precious high after 10 years.
I am not able to upload chart, I need your precious advice.
Thanks
Hello Hitesh sir, In Hariom pipes, yesterday, rating agency ( Care ) has rated the company āIssuer Not Cooperatingā since 2021-22ā¦, whereas on 5/6/2024 rating agency ( Crisil ) has given rating accordingly. ( Not tagged - Issuer not cooperating ). How can we analyse it?? Thank you.
@Agrawal_Saurabh_007 you can raise query to rating company. In press release of rating they give email Iād of concerned persons. In press release of rating they have to give past rating history. Further it seems that there are two separate rating companies involved I.e. care and CRISIL. It is possible that they have not cooperated with one of them and cooperated with other.
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@hitesh2710
What is your view on the markets, Hitesh sir? Iām experiencing this level of volatility for the first time. The Nifty 50 has fallen by 12% so far, and I anticipate another 10-15% decline by Feb as the market absorbs FII selling pressure. Today, most stocks broke below their 200 EMA, indicating the possibility of further pullbacks. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks have also begun a brutal decline. I would greatly value your insights on identifying opportunities and cultivating the right mindset to analyze this market effectively.
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Indian Markets have been on a corrective mode since posting a life time high of around 26200 plus in September 2024. Itās now been 4 months since the correction began and as of now there are no signs of reversal till date.
Historically speaking, since the Covid lows of 7500 in March 2020, we experienced a strong rally to 18500 levels in October 2021, a rally of nearly 11000 points within 18 months. This was followed by a consolidation of nearly 9 months wherein Nifty posted a swing low of around 15000 in June 2022.
Next phase of rally was from June 2022 from lows of 15000 to high of 26000 plus in September 2024, which is a rally of 11000 plus points in nearly 28 months. However this rally had a big outperformance by small and midcaps and was very frothy in terms of rallies in SME, plenty of IPOs, and all such fanfare. During the latest rally of last 2 years , we have had shallow corrections lasting hardly 3-4 months and those corrections usually were buy on dips kind of corrections.
The current market correction seems to be different from the routine run of the mill buy on dips corrections. Macro factors, like rising USD, rising US bond yields, worries about India growth story, geopolitical factors etc are all blamed as reasons for the recent correction.
How far this correction lasts is anyoneās guess, but I think we might be in for slightly longer correction atleast in terms of time correction.
The recent fall has been very sharp and there are some signs of capitulation since last few days, and hence we can see a sharp counter trend bounce once this phase of correction finishes. (when this correction finishes needs to be seen.)
Each correction offers the next set of winners which emerge from the rubble of recent correction. Thatās where our focus should be. The companies that have the highest growth visibility for next 1-2-3 years need to be listed and studied for merits for investment.
Personally I am a bit cautious with relation to this recent corrective phase and donāt want to be too agressive in terms of buying on dips. A balance of buy on dips and sell on rallies in different sets of companies is something I am looking out for.
@Agrawal_Saurabh_007 I donāt track Hariom pipes.
@deepak4 I donāt track Lupin.
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Dear @hitesh2710 ji,
What stocks or sectors attracts your attention these days ? Once the brutal fall looks like paused or ended for the time being, which sectors looks promising ?
Did you move to some more cash during this crash or as you many times mentioned was it more of portfolio rebalancing by switching from weak names to strong names? And now it appears that markets are stabilising though it may still have wild swings due to upcoming budget, new US presidents policies and other macro factors.
Your more elaborate thoughts on these aspects would be immensely helpful.
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I wish I had a crystal ball. 
But a general observation with respect to current markets and some outperformers is that stocks that have very strong narratives, with respect to their earnings growth in next few years are holding out well. Those that are in my watchlist (which I donāt necessarily own) are stocks like Shaily, Wockhardt, CE insys, Genesys, etc. The one stock that I hold based on expected triggers like Kavach, defense, etc is HBL. Here the conviction is based more on fundamental factors. For those who are interested, we have a very detailed thread.
Another set of sectors that seem to be holding out, or giving bounces are the defence, railway, fertiliser etc sectors. Now these could be the typical budget plays, and how they last need to be seen.
Pharma sector which has been holding out till now looks interesting. FMCG had started its correction much before the overall markets really started sliding. So there are some noises related to the sector that it might bottom out earlier and be a defensive play. IT sector which was holding out is showing mixed trends with some stocks correcting, while others remaining steady or going up.
The next two set of events in near future will be the swearing in ceremony of Donald Trump on 20th ( and what kind of actions and statements me makes post that ) and the Budget on 1st Feb.
In the past, my experience has been that its not always fruitful to try to catch the exact bottom in stocks. In fact its better if we buy once an uptrend is clearly established in the chosen stocks, even if we buy it slightly later, and at a slightly higher price.
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Good Afternoon hitesh bhai. How do you solve the riddle of the stocks that are holding relatively better to broader markets eg shaily or genesys but valuations are high and story is good numbers yet to follow v/s you have other set of stocks where valuations are gettinf lucrative but narrative will take time to play.
In a market which gives good opportunity how do you choose between good story at high valuation v/s good valuation with okaish story.
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If the current correction that we are experiencing is a major correction ( which seems likely) lasting 12-18 months, then post the correction getting over, there will be a new set of winners for the next bull run. So as of now it makes sense to sit tight and observe, or have a trading mindset and that too in stocks that we have high conviction fundamentally , or where charts are very clear.
Corrections also will have strong counter trend rallies which can be used for trading purposes, if one is good at itā¦ My experience with previous bear markets is that falls last something like 8-12 weeks and subsequent counter trend rallies last something like 4-6 weeks. This is an observation and not something etched in stone. Markets end up doing what they have to do, but if we have some broad guidelines, then it can help in atleast formulating a strategy, (whether it works or not needs to be seen.)
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