Dear @hitesh2710
Usha martin broke the 200 dma and trading below that for the past few sessions. Technically, after the 200 DMA, where will the stocks find support. Whether there will be a consolidation, before moving up or something bad cooking up in Usha martin, that we don’t know.
Dear @hitesh2710 ji,
Wondering if you have a view on IRM ENERGY. The stock hasn’t done well since its listing in Q4’23. The results have been kind of muted for the last two quarters, but the company is on a massive capex drive and plans to double its capacity by FY26. Also, they are in CGD business which kind of operates like a pseudo monopoly in my opinion (you have an exclusive right to operate in your geographical area for X number of years)…so to me that’s a big moat. From the VP thread I see some folks are concerned about the promoter not being minority shareholder friendly…and perhaps that’s the reason for not much interest in the stock. Would love to hear your views.
Thanks as always 
Hitesh Bhai: Would appreciate your views on the technical setup of VIL. I sense a bullish symmetrical triangle, indicating consolidation phase before continuing the upward trend. TIA.
Disc: Invested basis evolving fundamentals.
How to deal with non performers in the portfolio will depend a lot on the investor mindset… There are some investors who can sit out the period of non performance for long time and then stock price tends to move in their favor. I have seen folks like Donald and Ayush do that successfully. For a person like me, it does not suit my mindset and hence after a decent period of time if stock does not seem to be performing as per expectations, I tend to exit, especially when there are other clear cut opportunities. But as I mentioned before, this depends a lot on how an investor is wired. You can decide for yourself. 
@jack Usha martin seems to be in a longer term consolidation. Quarterly results have been flattish. I had exited sometime back considering opportunity cost and the kind of supply it faced around 370-400 band. Will re consider it when a favorable set up happens.
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Attached Vesuvius daily GMMA chart shows a flag like consolidation going on. Flagpole extends from 3400-5400, and once breakout happens, upmove can provide a move of 2000 rs if pattern plays out.
@Apurva_Dubey I have no idea about IRM energy.
@jayraj_khachar I don’t track PSP.
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Sir, is there any reason why you use GMMA instead of individual MAs? Do they provide any additional insight?
Sometimes, picture is more clear on GMMA chart as compared to a bar chart or a line chart. In those instances I use GMMA.
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Hitesh bhai can you please review the technical chart for Max India and suggest when will be a good entry point for allocation?
Any other guidance that you can share on how to place your funds in a structural theme that you believe will play out like senior healthcare and hence how can one allocate to a business like Max India for a long term holding period like 5+ years
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Hi Hitesh Sir!
I’ve observed that post listing of OLA the theme which the market is favoring (rotation) is new age companies. Most of the stocks Delhivery, Policybazzar , Matrimony, Even Paytm seems to be breaking out on Charts.Any views?
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Hi Hitesh Sir !
Please share your views on Kopran (Just crossed 52 W high) and Religare ( Near 52 W high) on technical Chart basis.
@hitesh2710 Sir, hope you are doing good.
I would like to express my immense respect yet again for your deep insights in not just momentum, fundamental, technical aspects of proven businesses but also the vision to see and assess the narratives of unproven so-called new age businesses.
I remember couple years back when new-age was the buzz word and plethora of such internet etc. related businesses were coming with stupendous narratives and then came the big fall when capital became costly and path to profitability became a question in all such narratives.
It was during this hype & middle of the fall that we were discussing some thoughts either in this thread or in some other investor portfolio thread when you had expressed some positive thoughts on business model and future sustainability of Zomato among all others. Most of other boarders were interested in the Nykaa narrative but you could cut the Wheat from the chaff
Two years down the line, among all such so called new-age firms, the real recovery has happened only in Zomato. Rest all proved to be chaff (at least so far).
(I was unable to find the posts where these thoughts were discussed, otherwise would have linked them here.)
Huge respect for the clarity of thought yet again on various aspects of Investing! I think you were born to invest 
Best Wishes
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Hi Hitesh sir,
Some companies have a high PE ratio, but we know for sure they tend to grow. Should we wait for the valuation to become favorable for these types of companies? However, if we are certain that they will grow, can we also consider doing an SIP in such high PE companies?
There are a handful of companies that fit into the coffee can basket of investment universe. These usually quote at high PE and often undergo periods of gross underperformance as compared to the then prevalent themes in the market.
The current times in market are representative of the above phenomenon. Companies like Asian Paints, Page Inds, Nestle, Bata, Bajaj Finance, Pidilite, HUL, Colgate, 3M, a lot of FMCG companies, consumer durable companies etc fit into these kind of candidates. Some other names like Dmart, PI inds etc also can make the cut. If you look at the returns provided by these kind of companies post the Covid rally of 2020, they pale in comparision to those provided by the sectoral fancy poster boys (sector leaders) and the other sector companies.
However if someone is inclined to stick to coffee can kind of investing, then it makes sense to have a 5-10 year view and invest in an SIP mode. The most important caveat here is that one has to differentiate between the genuine coffee can companies and the pretenders that come off and on. One such example of a pretender was GMM Pfaudler, where the logic put forward was that it was a proxy play to growth and capex in chemical, agrochem and pharma sector. While part of the argument might be true, it does not compare in business quality to the likes of the list put up above.
The last line of your post is very important, “we are certain that they will grow”…
@Investor_No_1 Thanks for the kind words. I think the discussion related to new age companies and preference for Zomato was discussed in richdreamz portfolio thread. Zomato has indeed been a star performer over the past few months. Blinkit which was at the time of its acquisition considered a drag is now considered the feather in the cap for Zomato. That’s how markets work. Perceptions change from time to time and if we are able to catch these changes, there is a lot of money to be made.
@PawanKumar I don’t track Kopran, Religare.
@rahulbhardwaj19 I don’t track Max India.
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New age companies as you described them are on a roll recently. Zomato remains the poster boy for these bunch of companies. Ola post listing has generated a lot of buzz. It reminds me of the stir caused by the likes of Nykaa post listing and look what happened. You can also look up the trading history of a company called Indigo paints. Post listing it was taken to crazy valuation levels in 2021 and price I think went up to 2800 kind of levels, and now it is half of that, and inspite of string of decent results has failed to provide much cheer for investors.
Stocks often run on narratives in the absence of numbers. This kind of rally can sustain brief periods of time, but in the longer run, its earnings, earnings, and earnings (as Lynch baba described it).
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Hello, Hitesh Sir.
I was going through Pyramid Technoplast Q1 FY 23-24 concall. Please, can you explain me the meaning of following line.
Pyramid is quoting at 12x earnings versus our nearest competitor Time quoting at 28x
earnings.
( Sir, I am new investor and trying to learn. Thank you, in advance. )
Pyramid technoplast has not been able to deliver expected results, whereas Time techno has been consistently giving good results since past many quarters.
Plus business model and some products of both companies are slightly different. So comparing the valuations of two companies does not make too much sense.
Besides valuations are something given by markets. So as and when Pyramid starts delivering numbers, it too can get rerated
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Don’t know who calculated it, but Time Techno hasn’t quoted at 28 PE for last 3 years (Disclaimer: been holding/adding Time Techno since 2019). It’s valuation is only now going up.
One major common product between Pyramid & Time is IBC which is a big cubic polymer/fiber container used to transport chemicals. This is a value-added product having ~16-18% margins & Time has more capacity/sales vs Pyramid. Otherwise Pyramid is into metal drums a lot, which is very minor for Time.
Besides, as you’re going through Q1FY24 transcript & their FY25 projection, please chk their Q1FY25 to see if they can deliver as @hitesh2710 advised.
From Pyramid Q1FY25 transcript, their IBC business is affected by shipping crisis whereas Time (per Q1FY25 transcript) says they’re not affected. So I’m guessing Pyramid performance will be affected (atleast relatively) in FY25 also.
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@hitesh2710 sir, Good Evening. Sir, can you please share your wisdom on current nifty 50 valuation? Is it forming any pattern indicating correction? In my experience sir, whenever we are in euphoria like situation like the current one, whenever we see flood of ipo and crude price dancing around , it indicates we are closer to peak and can experience bear phase or correction and then consolidation. Seeking your views. Many thanks!
Thanku for the knowledge sir… I found a microcap company named as Valiant Communication for some reason there is not much information about management…Sir can you give me some knowledge about as i am new to the markets ?
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Evening Hitesh sir.
Aavas Financier has an open offer (Since more than 25% was acquired by CVC Capital) at ₹1766. The entire process will take almost 2 months to complete.
Is the share price capped at ₹1766 for the time being? What happens/has happened in such situations in your experience?
Thank you
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