Hitesh portfolio

@sandesh1893

Snowman spring does not look like a typical spring action. Usually spring action is when a strong support ( which has acted as a support for a few trading sessions) is breached momentarily and stock price goes up again above that support level quickly.

Regarding Snowman, at best it seems like a shakedown move followed by regaining strength and now above key breakout levels. Level of 70-71 has been a 7 year high for the stock price. The stock price has resemblance to Darvas Box. All these are variants of range breakouts, which remains a simpler term for breakouts and swing trading.

@bijo_scaria I don’t follow Kitex so not much in terms of view on the company.

@Jitendra_Vyas My investment style and strategy has been discussed in this very thread multiple times. I keep putting disclaimers in companies where I am invested.

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Hi Hitesh Sir!
Would like to know your view on Castrol India Technically. Stock is around the major resistance range of 210 - 240. Fundamentally, the Company has been on the radar due to a change in the business strategy which leans towards electric vehicles.

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Hi Hitesh bhai,
I was looking at the Bajaj Finance chart today & couldn’t help but notice a breakdown of a Head & Shoulders pattern. In your experience as an investor, would 5700-6000 be the potential targets of this breakdown? Also, what could potentially (eventually) mark a reversal from this breakdown?


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Bajaj Finance has been stuck in a broad range of 5500 to 8200 since May 2021. Within this range patterns keep forming and moves happen accordingly Ocassionally there will be failure in these patterns and there can be strong moves in opposite direction. But overall it has been a rank underperformer in an overall strong bull market. Chart attached. I personally don’t even look at it on a regular basis as there is no trend to ride. You can take an appropriate call based on your views.

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@Naresh

Castrol gave an important breakout at 150-160, based on range breakout and falling trendline breakout. Since then it has been in a strong uptrend. Fundamentals wise I dont track it too closely. In bull markets whenever a stock goes up a lot of fancy stories are made up and floated around. I would be careful to take these at face value. These need deep digging and analysis. I don’t have any position or views on it now. Best time to buy was at time of breakout.

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Sir, what according to you would be an ideal candidate for channel trading?
In this chart, since it’s consolidating, one could trade the channel (30-40%).
Could you please help me understand if such strategies apply in these stocks or there are other parameters (apart from fundamentally strong stock having good results).

Thanks

Sir, could you pl explain how to distinguish between 52 week or ATH stocks from Climax tops. as in both cases there is usually volume burst.

While the former can be a great entry point and the latter as the exit, I am unable to filter it properly.

Thank you

Hi @hitesh2710 sir - Whats your view on “shriram pistons”. It has given an all time breakout with huge volumes.

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@hitesh2710 ji

As the markets have run up a lot and also based on past history of market movements around general elections, do you see a major overall correction (20%+) in the months before / post elections?

Hi Hitesh sir,

I would like to request you to please share your views on HBL Powers valuations. The scrip is trading at 50 + PE and has done very well for us investors. I feel the company can continue to do well with its various revenue streams in defence and railway sectors. But due to no concalls and no quarterly commentary from the management for investors, i wonder what’s the estimated FY25 or FY26 forward PE for HBL should be? It would be of great help if you could please share any insights here please.


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@Naman_Gupta1

Channel formations are good to look at in charts. Practically it is not much use unless one is a very nimble trader. There is no right or wrong candidate for channel trading. If the play is on playing rallies then it should ideally be a fundamentally sound company.

Quickest and most money is made in trending stocks. I usually devote my time to find such stocks.

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@subha_ghosh

Climax tops are usually easy to find. The stock price has a rally of 50-100% within a few weeks and there is mention of that particular stock in various forums, Whatsapp groups etc. Lots of positive newsflow related to the company.

The 52 or ATH company that is best suited to ride for momentum investing is the one that makes these without much noise or fanfare, but preferably with a good bullish candle with good volumes. And which is often neglected. And if there is valuation comfort, its often the best candidate.

One thing to note while riding this whole 52 week or ATH theme is that after breakout there can be prolonged periods of consolidation in these names. These can last few weeks to few months based on the time frame of the chart.

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@newone

Regarding past history of market movements, the only rule that stock markets follow is that they follow no rules.

I am usually not involved in the prediction game. I prefer to follow the trend objectively without listening to noise. Till now markets have shown a lot of strength and resilience. What happens going ahead needs to be seen in terms of how things pan out. I don’t go ahead with any pre conceived notions or theories. There are some pointers to watch out for in terms of too much froth etc, but in our markets we have seen periodic corrections of varying degree, without really damaging the overall trend.

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@amol_srivastava

HBL seems to be one of the most transparent companies. :grinning: It has given a 3 year guidance in the past and recently after q3 results has come out with an upward revised guidance. What more is there to know. :grinning:

We can make our own assumptions based on what was promised and what has been delivered, and try to guess what can be delivered.

Came across a Charlie Munger quote recently. " You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing. " Covers investing in a nutshell.

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@hitesh2710

Sir, have you always had this thought of participating in stocks which are trending, or is this something you had started to look at, after a few years of investing?

And have you pivoted more towards momentum, or do you have a long-term PF too, which you add to, despite seeing great profits with momentum?

And would you attribute a portion of your success as a momentum participant to market, or, have you reached a stage where you are confident enough that you will see profits even in the absence of a conducive market?

And if you can provide some insight into managing positions w.r.t risk, as momentum can lead to losses too?

I am an enthusiast and learning, hence such questions, hope you don’t mind. And as always, thank you very much for all the knowledge and wisdom you provide.

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@ChaitanyaC

In my earliest investment days I was more a fundamental investor. Those days I was very impressed by research reports and took everything at face value. So based on that I had bought companies like Parekh Aluminex and Lakshmi Energy and Foods. These stocks were covered under Hidden Treasure section (small cap picks) by an advisory. First real portfolio consisted of these two stocks esp coming out of 2008 market crash. I remember that I had bought Parekh Aluminex at 174 (when report was published) and kept on averaging till around 50. My average cost had come down to around 85. I had no concept of stop loss or momentum investing. After markets recovered, and rally started I was able to sell it at average price of 250, though the stock price probably went up to around 800 or so. Subsequently a lot of corporate governance issues cropped and after demise of the CEO, company went into a tailspin and finally stopped trading. That was the first piece of beginner’s luck I enjoyed.

Lakshmi energy was a case where investors were duped for a long time. I managed to exit with 2X returns. Again beginner’s luck. That company too stopped trading after a few years.

If you managed to make money out of this kind of shitty companies, I guess you are destined to suceed in markets. :joy:

I used to buy physical copies of Capital market magazine. And once during some kind of landmark issue of the magazine, they provided with a small basic book on technical analysis with simple concepts and patterns. It immediately appealed to me. And then somehow I latched on to John Murphy’s Textbook of technical analysis. After that I was bitten by technicals bug and kept on going deeper into it.

I made a presentation on Combining technicals with fundamentals at 2019 VP Goa meet after having enjoyed some success with this approach for a couple of years. After that things picked up fast in terms of learning and returns.

Momentum investing needs a conducive market environment. In weak or sideways markets, many a times all these bullish patterns tend to fail or stall. That’s a learning I got during the 2018-2020 period when I kept getting frustrated by failure patterns in small and midcaps segment. That was the time of quality at any price. (where companies with High ROE, low or no debt, and slow or moderate (sometimes faster) growth outperformed. ( Marcellus portfolio kind of stocks) It was after a couple of years of frustration that I realised that I was barking up a wrong tree. There was a total lack of fancy and total apathy in small and midcap space. So most of the patterns tended to fail or stall.

Regarding managing positions, w.r.t risk, once you get hold of a stock that is in strong fundamental and technical momentum, best approach should be to ride it as far as possible with liberal stop losses. These are sort of super stocks which are hard to come by. And in bull markets even if you manage to latch on to only 1-2 per year in stocks which go up 2 X to 5 X, (with other stocks doing their routine 25-80% kind of returns) you will do quite well. And using momentum investing if you can find say 3-4 such super stocks in a 8-10 stock portfolio, most of the job is done.

Most important aspect in these kind of stocks is to catch them young. That reduces risk to a considerable extent. In some of my holdings like in Usha Martin I have given a long rope to my positions because I remained convinced about the fundamentals of the business growth. And the company keeps delivering in terms of numbers.

Nowadays learning comes from observing, analysing and acting based on movements of super stocks and trying to figure out some kind of pattern/model that is common to a lot of big winners.

I can see and feel your enthusiasm for learning, and love answering the kind of questions you ask. Even writing down certain thoughts helps in refinement.

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Thanks for sharing your guidance!

When you say ‘young’ you mean it by market cap or perhaps some other criteria?
Is a company with 10k crore market cap young? As a beginner, it becomes very hard to bring conviction in say companies with less than 1k crore mkt cap. Even if I find it fundamentally strong, either I just track it to see how it may perform or add a minute chunk (1-2%) to my portfolio.

Once such companies become bigger, I end up not finding them as a “value” buy and hence give them a miss completely.

It would be wonderful if you can share some insights on this.

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@Naman_Gupta1 By the virtue of having learnt a lot from Hitesh bhai, I think he means getting into a trend early on. And the story can come in different sizes, shapes and forms.

For example, I believe the first time he wrote about Usha Martin was in Nov 2021 (Stock price then was in the range of 65-95)

A behind the scenes look at what was happening at UM, prior to this was that one set of promoters were starting to run the company and the other promoter was backing off after an internal feud, starting 2017.

Subsequently, the new promoters (the Rajeev Jhawar faction) started to work on turning around the co. and got rid of debt by selling off their commodity steel business in April 2019.

And boy! look at their balance sheet after that. Debt reduced to a fraction of what it was, before the steel business was hived off and the new promoters took control.

Subsequently margins started to improve because UM started to focus more and more on wire ropes which was unlike their commodity steel business.

And single digit return ratios went to double digits, starting in 2020-2021

The end result was a stock that went up 3-4x in less than 3 years, which happened through a process of catching a stock early on + using technicals + doing the work on the fundamental side + understanding the story behind a rising stock.

You may want to revisit this talk by Hitesh bhai. It is a masterclass in investing and covers many other mental models and case studies which one can use in the pursuit of getting into the right stocks early.

PS: It takes several iterations to grasp many of the concepts he’s talked about in the video because what a teacher has learnt over many years can’t be learnt by a student in 2 hours.

Over to Hitesh bhai :slight_smile:

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Couldn’t just like and leave, more so when you have given such an elaborate answer spending your precious time, even if you like providing answers.

Thank you sir, thank you for imparting your knowledge and wisdom each time we ask, in such a lucid and succinct manner, which help us.

:saluting_face:

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Hi Sir, Do you run scans everyday / week to identify ideas. I agree a lot to your approach of investing in the markets, however following your strategy, how can one book partial profits to generate some amount of money every month, if one is doing this full-time?

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