@ChaitanyaC
In my earliest investment days I was more a fundamental investor. Those days I was very impressed by research reports and took everything at face value. So based on that I had bought companies like Parekh Aluminex and Lakshmi Energy and Foods. These stocks were covered under Hidden Treasure section (small cap picks) by an advisory. First real portfolio consisted of these two stocks esp coming out of 2008 market crash. I remember that I had bought Parekh Aluminex at 174 (when report was published) and kept on averaging till around 50. My average cost had come down to around 85. I had no concept of stop loss or momentum investing. After markets recovered, and rally started I was able to sell it at average price of 250, though the stock price probably went up to around 800 or so. Subsequently a lot of corporate governance issues cropped and after demise of the CEO, company went into a tailspin and finally stopped trading. That was the first piece of beginnerâs luck I enjoyed.
Lakshmi energy was a case where investors were duped for a long time. I managed to exit with 2X returns. Again beginnerâs luck. That company too stopped trading after a few years.
If you managed to make money out of this kind of shitty companies, I guess you are destined to suceed in markets.
I used to buy physical copies of Capital market magazine. And once during some kind of landmark issue of the magazine, they provided with a small basic book on technical analysis with simple concepts and patterns. It immediately appealed to me. And then somehow I latched on to John Murphyâs Textbook of technical analysis. After that I was bitten by technicals bug and kept on going deeper into it.
I made a presentation on Combining technicals with fundamentals at 2019 VP Goa meet after having enjoyed some success with this approach for a couple of years. After that things picked up fast in terms of learning and returns.
Momentum investing needs a conducive market environment. In weak or sideways markets, many a times all these bullish patterns tend to fail or stall. Thatâs a learning I got during the 2018-2020 period when I kept getting frustrated by failure patterns in small and midcaps segment. That was the time of quality at any price. (where companies with High ROE, low or no debt, and slow or moderate (sometimes faster) growth outperformed. ( Marcellus portfolio kind of stocks) It was after a couple of years of frustration that I realised that I was barking up a wrong tree. There was a total lack of fancy and total apathy in small and midcap space. So most of the patterns tended to fail or stall.
Regarding managing positions, w.r.t risk, once you get hold of a stock that is in strong fundamental and technical momentum, best approach should be to ride it as far as possible with liberal stop losses. These are sort of super stocks which are hard to come by. And in bull markets even if you manage to latch on to only 1-2 per year in stocks which go up 2 X to 5 X, (with other stocks doing their routine 25-80% kind of returns) you will do quite well. And using momentum investing if you can find say 3-4 such super stocks in a 8-10 stock portfolio, most of the job is done.
Most important aspect in these kind of stocks is to catch them young. That reduces risk to a considerable extent. In some of my holdings like in Usha Martin I have given a long rope to my positions because I remained convinced about the fundamentals of the business growth. And the company keeps delivering in terms of numbers.
Nowadays learning comes from observing, analysing and acting based on movements of super stocks and trying to figure out some kind of pattern/model that is common to a lot of big winners.
I can see and feel your enthusiasm for learning, and love answering the kind of questions you ask. Even writing down certain thoughts helps in refinement.