Hitesh portfolio

Hitesh Sir,
Good evening
I have some questions for you. I will post the 1st one today-
a) How to identify which sector is showing signs of tailwind. Is their any source.
Personally I have seen that when the sector tailwind news reaches inexperienced investors like us, most of the stocks in that sector has already moved a lot. That does not allow us to take a position.

Your posts are helping a lot of investors to learn and develop a correct approach towards the market. I believe that this problem is faced by many and your answer will help them.

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@subha_ghosh

Identifying sectoral tailwinds will need you to be clued in to the markets. If you are tracking the sector fundamentally then you need to monitor sectoral companies over a period of time and see how and when things are changing for the better. This needs dedicated homework.

On price action front, when a lot of stocks from a particular sector start showing strength, after having gone through troubled times, that is the sector to focus on. And keep track of that sector. Keep looking at list of stocks making 52 week highs, all time highs etc and this is often a good way to unearth sectoral moves.

Here it is important to note that some sectoral tailwinds can last only a few quarters, and some will last longer and we need to be able to differentiate between these to develop a strategy to ride these.

It’s beyond the scope of this thread to elaborate on this topic. We have discussed these things off and on on this very thread and on the 52 weeks high thread. You can also go through a few books on investing to get a better idea on this topic. Names of these books too have been mentioned in this thread earlier.

@maheshkumar

Manappuram chart is not a classical cup and handle pattern. Regarding what is a good entry point etc you can go through the various technical analysis threads on valuepickr and keep updated with them.

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@hitesh2710 sir Suppose you know that company will face headwind for 1-2 year due to the increase in raw material price which leads to contraction in margin will you exit when you get news or you will average stocks in bad time.

@hitesh97

If I know that a company will face headwind for next 1-2 years and if I were holding the stock I would exit as early as possible. Or if I have to consider it, I will stay away. This is because I am a momentum investor and don’t want to waste my time and money on stocks that are not in a strong uptrend.

However for fundamental value buyers, this kind of situation often provides fertile grounds to keep this kind of company in watchlist and buy at appropriate time.

Currently we have the example of chemical companies (and the so called high quality companies mainly due to tepid growth inspite of high valuations) which have been under pressure due to various reasons like high raw material costs, high power costs, transportation costs, etc. After massive bull runs these are in corrective mode due to above mentioned factors. These kind of stocks have not moved much during the roaring bull market that we are currently in. And all this while the stocks in fancy, with earnings tailwinds and in strong uptrend have gone up nearly 2-5 times or even more. Even somebody with no fundamental prowess, but who detected the PSU bull run could have made crazy money.

A strong trending bull market ( like the one we are experiencing) provides a great time to make quick returns in short period of time of 2-3-5 years. Portfolios can go up 5 to 10 times or more. This is often the differentiating feature between being rich and being wealthy, and finally financial freedom.

Just to give an example, stocks like HDFC Bank, Kotak bank etc have not moved much during the past 2-3 years, whereas stocks like HBL, Usha, most of the PSU companies and PSU banks etc have gone up multifold. And still some investors are stuck like a limpet on HDFC bank and the likes. These stocks will also have their day but in the current scenario, they are rank underperformers.

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This has answered a long time dilemma I was facing. While there are companies with good eps, but their stock price is showing a downtrend or long consolidation. Those stocks are now in an attractive valuation state but investing in them may take a long time to have a decent Roi.
So as far as I understood, a good strategy would be to ride the wave rather than searching for the next HDFC.

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Can Anybody who is studying delta corp help. CFO of the company is saying that the margins and profit will reach at its original level by Q3Y25. And the governance issues are still there with all the gst and taxes part also. Is any steam left with the stock?

(At loss of 23% CMP)

It’s a risky business and shady too. If you see the history of Delta Corp CFO appointments, it’s always been frequent.

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Hello Hitesh Sir,
I had a query regarding the breakout volume. As you have discussed earlier and has been stated in many books on technical analysis that volume during the breakout week should exceed the average of past weeks by a good amount.
My query is on how to judge the volume with respect to deliveries for the day/week. Nowadays, many high frequency trading LLP do intraday trading in huge volumes, which gives an illusion of volume breakout but as per the textbooks, the volume breakout signals big institutional entries while this is not the case with these high frequency trading companies. The chart seems to show a perfect breakout with extremely high volumes but the volumes end up being intraday spikes.
Do you have any criteria to avoid /filter these kind of actions.
I hope my question was clear and thanks in advance.

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@Bimal_Purohit

For me, volumes come next to price action and pattern breakout. Most of the times, there is a definite volume expansion at the time of breakouts. However as you mention, there can be an element of doubt due to algo and programmed trades. The only option at our disposal is to track delivery volumes on days preceding breakout and during breakout.

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Hello @hitesh2710 Sir,

I am a recent follower of your posts and have been trying to learn from your insights. I am reletavily new in markets (since 2019 only) and normally invest based on the fundamentals of the companies. I have been trying to increase my knowledge of technicals since last few months and your posts have been of immense value here.

I believe that technicals normally follow the fundamentals of a business. So if the company is performing well on business side then technically it will stay strong and vice versa. I recently came across a business where business is still performing well but the technicals have suddenly gotten worse.

The name of the company is SDBL (Som distilleries), the business is growing YoY at 50%+ but then they had an Income tax raid in November but nothing came out of it (mgmt explained in multiple interviews that nothing suspicious is found). Since then the stock is down 30% and is now trading at 200dma with RSI at 40. Despite company coming with strong set of numbers for Q3 and guiding for double revenue in next 2 years last week, the stock is not moving.

Can you please help me understand how should I look into it? Can it be only because of the Income tax raid that the market is waiting for more clarity to emerge but I see other businesses where market brushed aside similar issues with other companies relatively fast (e.g Polycab).

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Hello @hitesh2710 Sir,

I have this question plaguing my kind for a few months now and hence putting it out here. Please ignore if it seems non-relevant :slight_smile:

So I have been tracking and invested in Ethos Watches for a year now. Each day, for at least the past 3-4 months, this stock gyrates a lot on a daily basis, for example, the movement range today was close to 200 odd points, its CMP is around INR 2,400.

Does these type of c.10% range movements on a daily basis mean anything worth noting or follow closely for an investor? Or it is just traders acting up? I ask this as the daily volume is a around 50k daily.

Thanks

@Sanjeev_Bansal

Som distilleries had a big bull run from levels of around 110 in Feb 2023 to a high of 390 in Oct 2023, and then it has started its correction. Some reasons for the correction seem to be

Valuations had run up a lot in anticipation of company’s expected good numbers.
There has been continuous equity dilution with equity at 28 crores in 2018 going up to 39 crores in Sep 2023.
Income tax raids.

Many a times these type of medium term corrections take time to correct inspite of no change in fundamentals. As an example we have Usha martin to study where without any change in fundamentals, in spite of a strong overall market and stock price corrected from a high of 374 to swing low of 253 and has now managed to climb back to levels of 350-360, signalling a possible end to corrective phase.

Stocks can correct 20-30% (or more) from their tops just as a matter of routine correction after sharp rallies. It’s up to us to study the company based on whatever method we follow and decide whether to buy/sell.

@Anubhav_Garg I dont track ethos.

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Hello Hiteshbhai,

Thanks for your continuous guidance and sharing. Truly appreciated.

Which of the Richard Wycoff books would you recommend for learning and if there would be any particular order?

Thanks

Nikhil

Thanks for keeping this thread going strong, a rare treasure in the world of noisy social media fingurus.

Keen to see your views on the specialty chemical names Indo Amines and India Glycol, both of which seem to be consolidating from a recent breakout. Indo Amines price is consolidating in a tight range which makes it really interesting.

Of course a lot depends on tomorrow’s earnings

@nikhil090

I have not read any books of Wycoff. A friend nudged me in that direction and I looked at the schematic diagram and tried to figure out the pattern in any charts I saw. That is as far as my knowledge on the topic goes. :grinning: I am yet to read the books so not much idea which one is the best.

@CnC I don’t track Indo Amines or India glycols. Charts do look interesting but the chemical sector has been in the dumps since a long time. There can be a few outperformers from within the sector but I prefer sectors having tailwinds rather than try to find winners from a sector in pain.

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Hello Sir,

Thank you for your detailed response. I own Usha martin as well and I noticed the similarity in share price movement for SDBL. I am happy that you have a similar view. I believe both these stocks gave (SDBL still does) good opportunities to long term investors to enter.

I also want to ask you a question about fundamentals. In stocks such as SDBL, where promoters don’t have a very clean past but current situation looks fine (until now). How do you decide on the position sizing in such cases? I am bullish on SDBL’s business performance and current valuations but promoters’ past is making me uncomfortable in taking a bigger position.

I missed a good business due to similar issue (Aditya vision) when their Accounting practises issue was blown out of proportion. How do you approach such companies? Do you stay away from them completely or take a position after doing your research?

Regards
Sanjeev

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@Sanjeev_Bansal

I had Som distilleries but exited once I felt that next couple of years valuations were getting captured in the valuations. Some other reasons for exits were frothy overstretched moves on charts, frequent appearance of management on TV, too many announcements related to their business ( and stock price not responding to them inspite of them being positive in nature) . I exited somewhere around 300-310 and stock price went much higher than that, but I was okay with that kind of move as I already had made my returns satisfactorily within a short period of time.

And than came the IT raids. Which proved to be the final nail in the coffin. The uptrend was halted/broken… Usually once this happens it undergoes prolonged consolidation, where there may or may not be price correction, but time correction takes a long long time. Some people are okay bearing this kind of pain, others are not. You can define which kind of person you are and take an appropriate call.

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ON PHILANTHROPHY AND GRATITUDE.

I recently met a lot of old VP friends and was extremely happy to see all of them doing very well on financial and personal front, and some of them nearing financial freedom, and some having taken investing as a full time profession.

That started me wondering about the root cause of all this happy ocurrences. And for most of us, Valuepickr has been the big backbone of learning and success. And for that folks like Donald, Ayush, Pratyush and others involved in setting up and running this wonderful forum deserve a bow. All those who came in contact with each other during valuepickr events, or through forum managed to learn from each other and helped in their growth.

The forum has been a university of sorts for retail investors, where right from hand holding to ideas sharing has been of the highest calibre. This has given rise to an army of VP bred investors, who keep contributing to the forum by their guidance and ideas.

I think the biggest form of PHILANTHROPHY is spreading knowledge. Conventional philanthrophy which is usually given front page importance is the donation of wealth. But how about something that creates hundreds and thousands of rich investors, who in turn do their own kind of philanthrophy helping the needy first hand. This creates a circle of philanthropists like no other.

A big shout out to folks who originated blockbuster ideas. These were initiated when they were fully actionable. When ideas like Laurus, Usha Martin, HBL ( those that I benefitted the most, and for that I have to thank @Anant primarily) were first discussed, stock prices were range bound for a long period of time, and that offered a lot of time for many of us to study the company in details, and take an informed decision. Rest is history. But this happened because of willingness of these folks to share their ideas at an appropriate time. The techno funda threads are the ones I often turn to when I try to check out ideas. From among those I know well, @phreakv6 deserves a special mention. To all these wonderful guys, keep up the good work.

How this works is that someone who gets convinced about the idea, knowingly or unknowingly shares it with a lot of people in and around his circle, and a lot of these people end up owning these companies and making multibagger returns. I remember one of the advices my dad gave me when I started studying medicine. ( He was a much admired and loved mathematics teacher.) In his cryptic way he told me “tumse agar galti se kisika bhala ho jaye to bura mat man lena” I understood the meaning of this sentence after a very long time. But the kind of love and adulation lot of us valuepickr guys get from a lot of people reminded me of this sentence. With or without design, if we have managed to touch a few lives positively, we should feel blessed.

Sharing your knowledge and wisdom can be one of the biggest form of philanthropies. If someone can share great investment ideas as mentioned earlier, it ranks at the forefront. But for those who have regulatory constraints, discussing generalised aspects, even discussing stocks which they do not buy but find attractive, or discussing investment strategy in general, or their personal investment journey, or their growth as an investor over the years, can prove to be a beacon of light for a lot of other wannabe investors. It takes only a few minutes of time and some mental effort to share this kind of stuff.

These days after the first few crores, rest are just numbers and zeroes. Whereas a few lives touched positively will live on for ever, because these folks will in turn take your good work forward by helping others financially or otherwise, or spreading knowledge, and so on.

PS. Please do not post thanks or other kind of messages on this thread. We will continue with our usual stuff as before. I just hope that this post helps nudge a few more people into contributing more to the forum which gave all of us so much.

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With bad management, you shouldn’t believe anything that is posted on business performance. Dishonest promoters and book cooking often go hand in hand and no amount of research will protect you from downside risks. Look at what has happened to stock prices of Zee and Polycab.

One should have a very strict rule in this case. If you are not comfortable with bad Mangement then you should exit or avoid stock completely regardless of their quarterly earning performance. A stock may still double, triple of quadruple from your exit level but you should be willing to take it in your stride.

On the other hand if you are not bothered with quality of management and are willing to take a leap of faith with their reported numbers then probably have a target price for exit (and do exit when you meet your target). At the same time be extremely vigilant and ready to pull the trigger at first sign of trouble assuming you get a chance to do so.

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Hi Hitesh Bhai,

Please can share your view on ‘CMS Info’ Cash Management(CMP 386) for short and medium term. The company ROE, is good. PE is below ROE. Should I wait for it crossing 424 before adding? Bought at lower level @ 360. Thanks

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