Hello Hitesh sir,
Need your inputs on how to look at ICICI bank… The Q3 results are very good and above brokerages expectations. Fundamentally, nothing looks wrong with the company.
Technically, price is falling since 1st Dec and breached 200 DMA on 27th January. Also broken near term support at around 840.
If I only look at technicals, I should sell this. But fundamentally, it looks like a buy on dip opportunity…
Need your inputs on how you look at such situations. Thanks.
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Hitesh sir, any updated views on Affle India? Does it look like the scrip has topped out?
How do u look at this digital platform company in this market scenario…
Thanks
Hitesh bhai,
Any views on Apar Indus and Permanent Magnets. Both have come up with great set of numbers during this quarter
Hitesh sir, your view on iifl finance it has run ferociously in the last few months!!
I don’t track ICICI Bank fundamentally, but even with good results, stocks correcting 20-30% from their swing highs is nothing new in the market we are in currently. And if we add the Adani imrboglio to it, it looks like a routine correction. Its how these kind of situations unfold once all the negatives are out of the way and markets resume uptrend that is important.
In stock markets there is something called price performance gap. ICICI Bank is one of the most tracked companies and its results are largely expected and predicted by a lot of brokerages/analysts tracking it. If the performance (usually quarterly results) is a big surprise, a big move is expected. Recent example of this has been seen in Apar Inds, which reported blockbuster numbers for q3 fy 23. However in such examples we have to be careful in extrapolating numbers because at times these kind of results are seen when margins are at peak, which at any time might come off. ( I don’t track Apar, so not much idea, but had seen the price action to results and hence put it up here as an example. )
@Shakti_Srivastava I don’t track Affle India. Charts indicate a short term double bottom breakout and hence there can be a bounce. Not too sure about medium term charts on weekly charts.
@ram1984 I don’t track Apar or permanent magnets. I alluded to Apar chart in above paragraph.
@Meet_Gandhecha I don’t track IIFL finance.
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Hitesh Bhai,
just curious to know how your investment portfolio looks. I remember you saying something like you do not have investments in mutual funds etc. and if a day comes where you have to invest in index mutual fund, you prefer to retire and do farming 
But normally in your equity portfolio, do you have only growth stocks ? or you have dividend plays (PSUs), steady compounders (say Pidilite etc, which you do not intend to sell). How does your portfolio looks like? normally how much part/percentage of the PF goes into top 1-2 high conviction bets.
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Thanks for your inputs sir… Appreciate your wisdom.
I usually do not invest in compounders. Basically it does not suit my temperament. I prefer instead to go for the companies where there are triggers lined up for price appreciation, usually in the form of growth stories. I often have 3-5 such names in my portfolio which usually occupy nearly 40-60% of my portfolio. Rest is usually into companies with sectoral tailwinds, or some other triggers, or sometimes just good chart set ups. ( many a times in companies with good chart set ups, the near term triggers are not visible and they come into picture later on. ) Maximum allocation I make to my top holding is usually limited to 20-25%. Last big allocation was in Laurus where I allocated nearly 50% but there the investment case was pretty clear and things kept playing out according to what I expected. And market was in a strong consistent uptrend.
Aim is to land a big winner which goes up 2-3 times every couple of years from among the top 3-5 picks and try to grab steady returns from rest of the portfolio with higher churn. Sometimes things play out as expected above, other times its a battle, like its now… In markets like what we have currently, it takes a lot of patience and discipline to run the course. And there has to be a lot of focus on capital protection.
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Dear Hitesh ji,
Wondering if you have a view on Kilpest India Ltd.:
- This company came into focus during Covid as one of the prominent manufacturers of covid kits in India
- Last couple of quarters were good – there was a good positive price-volume action right after the results…but the price flagged later on both occasions
- There are couple of growth triggers that will likely play out this year {(1) amalgamation of subsidiary with parent company (2) NSE listing} but they seem to run into one bureaucratic problem after another
Looking at the technicals do you foresee this making a big move in the coming months…or perhaps remaining choppy?
Many thanks in advance 
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Fundamentally I don’t track Kilpest. On charts it broke down from a head and shoulders bearish pattern and went down to achieve its targets. It then seems to have given a bounce but has faced resistance exactly at trendline of head and shoulders pattern. (though this trendline should not be considered too signficant.) But overall picture seems to be of a sideways consolidation.
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Dear Sir,
Thanks for your reply!
Also, I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for saving me from a catastrophic mistake that would have ended my uninspiring investing career prematurely. I had taken a huge position in Whirlpool in April-May last year when it was trading in 1600-1650 range – not only did I have a cash position but I had bought futures as well. I exited with a minor loss after hearing your thoughts.
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Hello Hitesh Sir
If you could explain your views on SBI and also other PSU banks ?
SBI has taken a fall since the start of Adani saga.
And now there is news of 23k crore loan to Adani from them so does it seems tricky road ahead for PSU banks even with good results they have shown in past few quarters ?
@hitesh2710 Bhai,
Can you share your POV on Adani group saga? especially on Ambuja and ACC?
For Ambuja, shares were tendered at 385 (CMO ~350) but no one surrendered back then.
Hitesh bhai, do you track RACL geartech? A small cap executing brilliantly, and walking the talk. Recent results have been great and the stock has rewarded accordingly
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@hitesh2710 bhai what do you think about REC Ltd?
The company has been growing profits and the valuation looks very attractive.
Not able to figure out what’s the catch 
Image source: REC Ltd website
REC has been a very good high dividend yield play. In past few years, the dividend yield has ranged from 7 to 10% depending upon what price you have bought the stock. The benefit it enjoys is that it gets funds at very cheap rates and hence margins usually remain steady.
I do not know why it has remained subdued in its price performance till now, probably because of fears of default in power sector, or some other reason. Even PFC which is listed as promoter of REC suffers from similar fate.
Technically it faces resistance at around 126-127 and once it crosses this resistance, it can head towards next resistance at 175.
@ram1984 I don’t track RACL geartech.
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In the past few months, PSU Banks including SBI have had a stellar run up. Some of the smaller banks have gone up nearly twice to thrice in a matter of few months. After these kind of run ups, its normal if these take a pause and undergo time and or price correction. That is what we are seeing in this space. Personally I expect the rally in PSU Banks to continue after the short to medium term correction gets over. As of now I have them only in my watchlist.
We have had a market which keeps on awarding the favorites tag to one sector after the other. If one were to list the sectors that have shown fancy in past few rallies, mostly post Covid, it has been pharma, chemicals, chemical ancillary, textiles, sugar, IT, steel and metals, cap goods, PSU banks and PSUs, autos, defence, tyres lately, … you name it and most of the sectors have had a sectoral rally that have lasted a few weeks to few months. Those investors who have kept looking out for the next sector to catch fancy and have been able to latch on to these at early stage, and more importantly been able to exit after strong run ups (not necessarily at top, but near tops) have seen good returns.
There are other investors who have not recognised the fabric and fancy of the markets that we have had since past 2 years have suffered. I see many investors still holding bulk drugs companies like Laurus, chemical sector stocks etc. We have to realise that sectors like bulk drugs, chemicals etc are basically commodity companies that were having a good time due to sector and company specific tailwinds. But once the froth sets into these companies, they are often treated as structural growth stories and given valuations which are given to them. From recent memory I can quote a few names like Clean Science, Tattva Chintan, GMM Pfaudler, HLE Glasscoat, etc quoting at valuations much higher than even structural stories like good quality private banks, or FMCG kind of companies. Many of these companies have lost their fancies and have corrected to varying degrees.
Post the correction in these names, on valuation basis, they may appear attractive when they start quoting at 52 week lows, or multi year lows, and downsides may appear low, but making serious money in these kind of names would be difficult. It is very important to know the specific triggers that can play out while buying these kind of names. Otherwise just buying them because they have corrected say 70-80% from their tops is what I call " HAIL MARY" kind of investment style. Many investors feel that they are contrarian investors when they buy these kind of companies. In these kind of investments, basic idea is to try to buy cheap and hope things turn around in your favour. Sometimes these type of things play out if the investment horizon is long enough, but most of the times its HOPE investing. Real success in contrarian investing comes when you are contrarian but more importantly are RIGHT. Getting this combination is very difficult and very few suceed at this. If one can master this art, then there is tremendous amount of money to be made. I know a few investors who excel in this art, and have seen their success firsthand, and have been lucky to learn from and interact with them. The other option is to try to learn technical analysis and try to pick up sectoral fancy in its infancy and get in early. For me all this stuff is work in progress. Some hits and some misses.
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Thanks for this short but deeply insightful note.
Hello hitesh bhai, after the budget many nbfc stocks are showing some momentum and crossed their budget day highs. There was a news that The increase in trading time to 5pm will benefit the nbfcs most and accordingly they are showing some momentum.
The sector didn’t participate in the credit cycle rally like the PSU banks and privates sector banks did from June 2022. So what’s your take on this sector and in particular view on abcapital and l&t finance holdings.
Thanks in advance.
I’m posting the chart of l&t finance weekly chart where 20 wema crossed 200 wema. Can it be taken as bullishness and how to set up entry into the counter. Thanks in advance.
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