Hi Hitesh, thank you for taking the time out to answer all the questions asked patiently.
Wanted to know your views on IFGL Refractories.
Sir
Just want to know ur view of PSU banks , are you tracking any . Bad bank + economic revival is seems to be postive for banks . Technically banks like Bob Canara Bank showing BO.
Dear Hiteshji,
Thank you liberal sharing of your views on different aspects of investing from your wide experience.
There is some good corrections for past few weeks in small cap space and got accelarated and spread across markets now. How do you view this with your experience in technical analysis ? Are you adding to your position in momentum investments based on Techno funda or waiting without doing anything or exiting to.increase cash ? How experienced investors like you see the current correction will give a pointer to people like us on what could be the ways to handle picks esp based on momentum/breakouts.
Thank you in advance.
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Hitesh Bhai
Any picks you are eyeing in this fall or you think there is lot of correction left. THanks
Hitesh Bhai, i vividly remember you once talked about Dark cloud in Laurus Labs when it was in strong Uptrend,. I think the same thing happened yesterday in Pricol, there was a huge Fall on Good volumes and it covered several previous days-trading bars. I jus want to understand how do you react in these kinda situations, if you’ve ever faced any?
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Hitesh Sir-Your views on REC.Its PE is 2.87 & Div Yield of 8.30%. Its having consistent sales and profit growth as well. Thanks !
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We have been under correction since past few weeks and the impact is felt more on small and midcaps space. If you remember the period prior to the correction there was a lot of froth and frolic in the small-midcap space and in the IPO space. Most of these are usually precursors to corrections. And that’s what followed. Problem predicting these corrections is that the telltale signs are often visible much before the actual correction begins. Even after a lot of signs are clearly visible, run ups in stocks continue and often make us question our own judgements.
The main feature of this bull market has been the sector rotation that has been visible to anyone observant enough to have a bird’s eye view. The most recent sector showing strength seems to be capital goods some select NBFCs. There are individual stocks which also continue to show good relative strength and have remained resilient during corrections. The thing to observe is that most stocks will correct during broad based market corrections. Those that correct least, say 10-15% or at the most 20% from swing highs are the ones that need special focus. Plus it needs to be seen which are the first off the blocks when market rallies. These are the ones likely to lead in the next bull run.
I usually am fully invested most of the times. So during corrections its not unusual for me to be caught on the wrong foot. What I usually do is try to figure out which stocks from my portfolio have slowed down or have lost momentum. I try to get out of these names, often at a loss, and try to get a good entry point in strong stocks that I have identified. At these times I try to find out strong stocks with clear growth visibility for next few quarters. If both fundamentals and technicals fit together, then I tend to be aggressive in allocations.
@Nibin_Issac PSU Banks as a theme seems interesting. Few things that seem interesting to me in this pack are… 1. These banks have had to take a lot of provisions during the 2015-2020 period and with resolutions happening in a lot of bad loans, there are a lot of write backs happening which is propelling the profits of many of these banks. How long these trends continue needs to be seen. After a point these banks need to start showing good growth in lending and pre provision profits. 2. With merger of a lot of these banks, the balance sheet size of a lot of these banks have increased and this has improved the capacity to bear shocks for these banks. Plus the operational synergy benefits also help. 3. A lot of these banks seem to be available at attractive valuations. But sheer undervaluation alone does not guarantee outperformance. Other things too have to fall in place. A lot of PSU banks had given good breakouts and in recent correction, these stocks have undergone deep corrections. How these recover needs to be seen. If the breakout patterns in these stocks play out, there can be decent upsides in these names.
I do not track REC, IFGL, RHI, Grindwell, Mirza etc.
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hi hitesh bhai ,
I want to know in daily or swing trades how do you find stock which are or can have momentum in coming days or say is showing sign of weakness … Like its not possible to track all script …
I use scanner in chart ink to follow
would like to know how you follow …
What is your view on the logistics sector. Stocks like Mahindra Logistics, TCI EXpress and CONCOR would be beneficiary of industrial growth revival. There is a structural story also at play with the sector becoming more organized and technology becoming more important
Hitesh Sir, Your views on Textile sector stocks- Lux Industries , Vardhman Textile and Dollar Industries. Seems there is momentum, industry tailwind and good quarterly results.
Hello @hitesh2710 sir,
Indiabulls real estate seems to be holding up pretty well in this choppy market. Can you please throw some light on its short term and long term prospects. The NCLT approval would hopefully come through anytime in Dec. How will the synergies play out post the merger and what are its longterm prospects considering that the new promoter group (Embassy) has a very clean image and the entire business is right now available at a market cap of 8K cr. Technically also it looks good for a target of 250 in the short term and the real estate cycle also seems to be breaking out after a 10 year lull. Breakout tends to be longer and bigger after such a lull. How do you see this as a long term bet ?
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Sir
I can see u have a position in shipping corporation of india . Are u playing it from technical side (showing good momentum in charts) or as a play on disinvestment . SCI is still trading below its book value and got this calculation of book value from a website that intrinsic value is around 400 .There were news that some of bidders quit the race . Now as per news Mega Engineering Infrastructure Limited (MEIL), Great Shipping Corporation and Vedanta are the final bidders
I am not too good at running screeners or using technology for picking techno funda picks. Usually many ideas come from friends for checking up on their picks. One benefit of being on this forum and being around for long is that we have a great network of friends in and outside VP. This helps in throwing around ideas and if something is interesting, then work on it.
Other times its about keeping the eyes open while looking at markets. Try to figure out which stocks/sectors are showing strength/resilience and outperformance/underperformance. And then follow up on these names. Most of the times I have a list of stocks in my xl sheet which are under my watchlist. And sometimes by going laterally from these names, I get good ideas. Say I am looking at sugar sector. And if ethanol is the main story, I would look at non sugar producers who benefit from ethanol push. So companies like Praj would pop up.
@NNaik I do not follow logistics sector closely but I like the charts of Gati which I have been following. @amishra I do not follow textile sector closely . Had a good run in ICIL but got out once my targets were achieved.
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Ibulls Real estate seems to be a good chart from within the real estate space. Though there are many others that too look interesting. Currently the stocks from the sector are under much needed consolidation after sharp run ups in most of them. I think once the consolidation is over it might be interesting to look at a few names from the sector. If one does not want to get into too much details, one can also play a basket of a few good companies.
Fundamentally its very difficult to analyse IBREL. As of now too many moving parts and difficult to see how the final picture will emerge post all the corporate exercises.
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SCI chart has been a technical analyst’s delight. A lot of patterns have occured and most of them have played out and continue to play out. And now with govt keen to offload stake (I think one of the ministers gave a timeline of Dec-Jan for it ) its only a matter of time before we see some action here.
The only problem with these situations is that one needs to be very patient. Govt decisions and their implementations are very slow. Plus with divestment there are a lot of regulatory and legal hurdles. Who bids and who does not is difficult to figure out. I do not trust the news out in the media too much because there are too many fake news floating around on media and social media.
So I find it easy to follow charts and take positions accordingly at opportune times. Besides, these are market agnostic events (unless we have a severe meltdown) and hence one can bet hard if charts are offering good risk reward. These type of opportunities also offer chances for swing trades if one is nimble.
As I posted in 52 weeks thread, the stock price recently took out the recent swing high and now seems well placed to move.
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Hi @hitesh2710 Sir,
Thank you for guidance time to time. Your recent answer regarding corrections and how you handle corrections was a good lesson. Being a novice in patterns/tech analysis space, I have a question using an example on failure of patterns.
Union bank of India had formed a cup & handle pattern and broke out from it around 44, then there was another pattern. Now the stock is back to these levels. Do you think a close below 44 range as failure of pattern played out through cup & handle and later as flag above that level. Incidently 50DMA also around 44
In short, how do we decide that a Cup & Handle pattern failed to hold on and broke down ? Do we use other parameters like DMA/EMA also in such decision making?
Disc: A small tracking position @2% of PF to learn around 49 levels.
Thank you once again.
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@hitesh2710 Hitesh bhai, what are your thoughts on Laurus Labs’ current move?
From a low of 452, it has moved to 539 currently. With the new Covid variant playing havoc on the markets, is it a case of the stock moving up due to market sentiments or is it a case of the markets predicting some good news that lies ahead?
Disc: I had held the stock from 80 levels and exited at 550 when it started falling and showing techical weakness.
Hello @hitesh2710 sir. What are your views on Indiabulls Housing Finance? The chart indicates that it has formed a double bottom pattern on a daily timeframe. Would like to hear your thoughts on this.
Thank you @hitesh2710 sir for your prompt and valuable insights as always !! Really grateful to you for taking your time out to reply back to each and every query!
If someone has to ride this wave and don’t have the skills/time to analyse each PSU bank, will it be a good idea to ride this with PSUBANKBEES ETF ?