@hitesh2710 Sir Thank you so much helping the novices like me and shaping the investing style your work is highly appreciated . I would like you to kindly share your views o Pharma space … the index contribution is less than 3% in 2008-09 and in 2014-2015 when the sector peaked out the contribution by pharma space in nifty index was around 7 to 8% . You share your views regarding pharma companies having more exposure to Indian market will grow faster than the companies which have export as the Us and European market the model is generic generic and that is more of commodity type model … in indian market why SUN pharma is not getting their faire share even they are have 14-15 brands which is contributing more than 100 Crs which is inline with abbot or other MNC also it we take out regulated market the company is very competitive among its peers . in recent run companies has run a lot Do you think there is more steam left in the engine … and one can enter in the sector or this is simply hype created by some experts to PUMP and DUMP strategy … Could you please share your views which books / resources / you recommend to read to getter belter prospective of the sector .
Hi sir have been following you since the couple of months ,followed how your chambal fertiliser story played out and now can see laurus playing out as well how does one identify technical charts and patterns like the handle and cup pattern you mentioned in laurus ?(any books you would recommend reading for this) .
Also would love your views on NB ventures seems like a chambal fertilzer part 2 but can’t decide if it is a value trap or a value buy.
I am contemplating investing in Fortis for the long term and had a few questions which someone from the medical field might have better insight into
what’s the mindset of the avg person who visits a hospital like Fortis
How much weightage would a person give to factors like a known doctor present at the hospital, proximity of the hospital ( assuming non life threatening cases ) , rates being charged etc
Do people normally prefer to get all their tests done at the hospital itself or would they prefer going to some place like a Path labs / Metropolis to get the same done at a cheaper price
Hiteshbhai
Have invested in HFCL
Pros
Good results
Innovative
Margins increasing in turnkey and research
New plant commissioned
Jio partner
5G
Cons
Corporate governance
How long do you reckon Divi’s lab can grow in double digits? Do you feel that the base is too large given that it doesn’t have any plan to enter formulation?
It is having TTM sales of 6571 Crores, of which ~ 47% is contributed by top 5 products (according to AR 2019-20)? Do you think that it should be able to improve revenue contributions from other APIs/Nutraceuticals and segments like custom synthesis?
In the pharma space, one has to be company specific because there are a lot of positive and negative triggers lined up for individual companies. One cannot generalise the whole sector. The one segment which is on a roll is the CSM/API segment which continues to churn out great results and is being rewarded by the markets.
Coming to specific companies like sun pharma, I think it needs to string together a few quarters of good performance to regain favour with investors. Ever since the unfortunate Ranbaxy takeover, it is struggling to keep faith with investors.
There are two situations where it takes time for companies in a sector to attain market fancy, especially in a sector which is not so hot. First is a company which starts delivering good results after investors have lost faith in the company. It often takes a few quarters of good results before market participants start taking notice. We have a lot of examples here. Companies like Laurus, and other companies in the bulk drugs space. Recent examples are companies like Marksans and Kopran which even with good results have failed to get going. My guess is there might be individual company specific reasons for these things. Both these companies are available at comparative cheap valuations of close to 10-12 PE based on their 9M results. How long this apathy lasts is anybody’s guess.
Sun pharma has a fantastic domestic business. But one cannot compare it with the MNC guys who operate primarily in the domestic market. These MNC do not have US geography facing issues like usfda compliance, price erosion, supply issues etc.
Pharma companies have been delivering good results since past many quarters, case in point being companies like cipla, ajanta etc. These have moved up though these moves are tepid as compared to those in the API/CSM/CDMO space. But there will be time for every company and one has to be patient. As long as company is able to continue giving good results, one can stay patient and be invested.
I do not know about any specific books to read up on pharma sector. But if you go through well articulated threads on pharma companies on VP then you will get a good grasp on the subject.
I dont follow NB ventures, HFCL etc.
@babu44b Alkem results have been steady without being spectacular. I think till it starts giving blockbuster results it might remain sideways.
Hospital business is an asset heavy business and is prone to populist govt measures.
The average person on the street is often scared of the exhorbitant fees in big well known hospitals and hence end up going to a doctor they are comfortable with and trust.
Lab tests in admitted patients in big hospitals usually happen in house. Patients who attend OPD at these hospitals often end up with private labs.
Divis q3 fy 21 concall was quite encouraging for investors. Dr Divi was quite gung ho about the company’s propects and the results of capex they have incurred and are incurring. From his tone it seems company will show decent (for divis, 15-25%, but consistent and with high margins is decent) growth.
He was also bullish on the prospects of contrast media wherein his company seems to have developed expertise to recycle iodine which is usually used in most contrast media.
If you are contemplating investing in divis, I think listening to q3 fy 21 concall would be a good idea to understand the growth triggers in the company.
In my view companies like divis, can be steady compounders wherein one can allocate a sizable chunk of capital. I am though not an advisor and hence anyone thinking of investing in the company or elsewhere should make their own informed decisions.
Hi Hitesh Sir, please share your views on hotel industry to buy and hold for 2 years .i am following Royal orchid hotels and thier asset light expansion plan.
Marksans Pharma is seeing growth in topline, better product mix, EBIDTA expansion and is debt free with very good ROCE/ROE. Yet markets seem to be according very economical PE multiples. Any particular reasons this can be attributed to? Is corporate governance a concern here? Grateful if you could throw some light please.
Any view on J B Chemicals & Pharma? The Company has seen steady increase in its profits over last few quarters. The return profile has been poor, partly due to investments it holds in its books
Live case study of Lollapalooza effect with Deepak Cleantech to be used for complex value-added intermediates. Same patterns in past multi-baggers being repeated here. Just find it interesting sir, that narrative, fundamentals, and technicals start aligning together in such cases.
Hello Hitesh ,
Do you track Godrej Agrovet ? Current performance is at best below avg. but Promoters have been buying regularly ( the Latest being this month ) , If you track it …then could you throw some light on the prospects …as i feel too many variables are impacting their performance from white fly attacks to bird flu to Govt regulations and import duties …which makes it a bit difficult to make predictions in this industry of agrochem / Animal / Poultry feed …what is your view ?
Marksans has reported very good quarterly numbers and it has been doing so since past 4 quarters if you consider y-on-y performance. Balance sheet has become much more leaner and now the company is a net cash company.
The q3 fy 21 concall was very interesting with the main guy Mark Saldana on call. A lot of questions were asked about the company and some were very pointed in terms of the company not getting fair valuations on the bourses. One long term investor was quite vocal about the need for the management to focus on that aspect. There was a call for buybacks in an effort to reward shareholders and improve the image of company.
Overall I think there seems to be some sort of disbelief among investors even though the company has been showing very good numbers since past 4 years now. The only thing inconsistent is poor dividend payout with respect to its earnings and balance sheet.
Business wise company seems to be doing quite well and operates mainly in regulated markets and seems to be doing a good job of it. More can be gauged from presentation and concalls.
When it catches market fancy is anybody’s guess but barring any hidden skeletons, it should happen at some point of time. Till then it is a patience game.
I dont track hotel sector, food color industry, companies like ltts, persistent, cera, godrej agrovet
JB Chemicals results have been outstanding. And that has been reflected in the rise in stock price.
We need to see what kind of growth path the new owners chalk up for the company. Most of the building blocks for growth including infrastructure and cash on balance sheet are already there, so for an aggressive management, it is an ideal scenario.
