Hitesh portfolio

@HIMSHAH

In the bounce back from the lows of Pandemic correction, Gati has been a laggard. Today it gave a good upmove and crossed its 200 dema by a wide margin. I would watch it for any follow up buying or any sideways consolidation without correcting too much.

Business wise, the past couple of quarters have been nothing to write home about. The markets these days are such that a lot of stories are manufactured in relation to various companies and there seems to be a lot of collusion between social media, news and media etc. Retail investors need to be careful not to be carried away by such “stories” and get stuck in poor quality companies.

@sarthakkumar19_ I dont have much idea about where to watch the AGM proceedings. Maybe you can try to find out through youtube. Or contact the company management to provide links ot recordings.

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The trigger today for GATI was quite weird (MD resigning), perhaps you or @HIMSHAH know more:

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There are lots of quality company with big fat OPM margin but growth is missing from last 4-5 years,in this scenario how we do valuation and longevty of any company?

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Hitesh Bhai, I dont know anything about technical but one friend of mine is of the view that there are many gap ups in laurus and the stock needs to correct and fill up the gaps before it moves up again. According to him, the gaps are around 160 levels (pre split 800ish). Is it that in every case, the stock has to come down and fill up those gaps. In this case, a stock today which is bullish and at 280 levels come down to 160 levels to fill up the gaps?

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@ram1984

Contrary to other responses, I know a thing or two about technicals and hence would give a specific reply. :grinning:

Gaps as the name suggest are the areas where trading has not happened. e.g today a stock closed at rs 100 with intra day high of 101. If tomorrow stock opens at 103, goes up to 105, makes a low of 102 and closes at 103, then effectively no trading has happened in the region between 101 and 102 . That is described as a gap up.

Now there are different types of gap.

First is the common gap which is not of much significance. It happens due to price adjustments to ex dividends, or demergers, or any other reason and don’t have much significance.

The most important gap is the breakaway gap. This happens when a stock breaks out of a tight consolidation area. This consolidation can be in the form of a flag, range bound consolidation, triangle etc. Any form of consolidation before a strong upmove which can begin with a gap up and huge volumes. This type of gap is usually not filled up in a hurry.

Runaway gap (which according to me is a continuation gap ) is a gap in an ongoing strong upmove. This happens when because of fear of missing out, sometimes traders buy well above previous day’s high in response to results, news, or Whatsapp gyaan these days. :grinning: These type of gaps might get filled up after a period of time when there is some headwind to the stock price.

Finally there is the exhaustion gap, which happens at the fag end of a bull run and is promptly filled up within a few days. This often (not always)signals a maturation of upmove. Sometimes it is often a pause where on a day stock price gaps up, and in next few days stock corrects to fill up the gap and upmove resumes.

In case of Laurus, there are various gaps which we will list below.

On 31 july 2020, stock price gapped up between 160-163. with huge volumes. This looked like a breakaway gap, although there was not too much range bound consolidation before that. Immediately on next trading day, on 3 august 2020, price gapped up between 189 and 191 which again seems to be breakaway gap. Both these gaps remain unfilled till day.

On 14 Sep 2020, price gapped up between 254 to 256 and this had the hallmarks of an exhaustion gap. On 18 Sep 2020, another exhaustion gap was seen between 285 and 288 which also got promptly filled up. Both these gaps indicated maturation and exhaustion of the upmove and now it seems the stock is working hard to try to go up. I had also mentioned the dark cloud cover pattern on candlestick earlier also.

Coming to overall picture, stock price formed a high of 310 before the split. Post split it formed a lower high of 307. Interim low is at 251. This level for anyone following technicals becomes a crucial level as a stop loss. If stock price breaks down below and sustains below 251, then it can correct further. So I guess anyone holding Laurus and wants an appropriate stop loss to follow, it should be 250 or below which is the most recent swing low.

Whether the stock corrects and reaches the unfilled gaps is difficult to tell. I think both were runaway gaps and might not be filled soon unless a big negative event/newsflow happens.

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Hi Hiteshji,

Thank you for clear views and good articulation of such views in the past.

Today Sensex and Nifty crossed previous highs post-covid rally. At what point you already considered ( or going to consider) markets changed directions to upside? Did you changed your position of cash preservation mode based on the change of direction after the quick correction to 10,800 levels.

Did you take any new positions or added to some positions based on pure technicals or techno-funda views?

Also, we can see that more and more IT sector stocks are making new 52 week highs
or ATHs from market leader TCS to even mid-sized IT firms. Any thoughts on good names in IT space and did you start looking at any of them?

How can we make sense of the fact that corrections look very swift these days and recovery is much more slower pace compared to correction ?

Thank you once again.

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@james_kerala

I was expecting markets to correct as I wrote earlier. But within few days itself, it started reversing and the main takeaway for me was the market breadth and good advance decline ratio. So it was easy for me to change my mind. Reversed my position in Laurus (though with lesser allocation than before.

The other segment that caught my attention was the agri/fertiliser segment.

There were some segmental reports that provided glimpses of super growth in fertiliser/tractor sales (refer vst tillers monthly sales figures) and by same logic, agrochem sales. If you need more fertiliser and tractors, every reason to assume you will need more agrochem products.

Coming to individual picks,

Chambal fertilisers : We have a good thread on VP on the company. The management sounded very confident about growth in q1 fy 21 concall. Plus they gave some soft hints at business transformation with more focus on agrochemicals and micro nutrients, citing their superb distribution network with farmers due to the fertiliser sales they have made in Northern India. Another softer aspect has been the consistent increase in promoter stake since past many quarters. Every quarter they keep on increasing their stake by 0.2-0.5% which has been consistent over many quarters. Their gadepan 3 plant is made with latest technology and provides them with a lot of cost efficiencies.

Another crucial factor was the reduction in gas prices from 2.4 $ to 1.79$. Now as I understand it, gas is a big part of input cost for urea fertilisers. And urea fertilisers are the most heavily subsidised among fertilisers. Hence subsidy payment gets reduced and the company benefits by lower working capital requirements. This obviously benefits the balance sheet.

GNFC. Here the most important parameter was the strong uptick in prices of TDI. Toluene di isocyanate is a product which is manufactured by GNFC and as far as I know it is the biggest producer of the product in South east Asia. Prices went up from around 120 per kg to as high as 200 plus per kg. And this should benefit it immensely. Plus the fertiliser tailwinds remain. Today there was some article cutting I read about possibility of anti dumping duty on TDI coming through. If and when that comes around it can be a big trigger. Technically there is huge consolidation in the range of Rs 210 (plus or minus 10 Rs). And breakout from this tight consolidation can give a quick strong move. Hopefully on the upside with all the logic put up. :grinning:

Bayer Crop science. Its annual report is an interesting and enlightening read. I think the Monsanto merger pangs are behind and company seems on a strong wicket to ride the agri theme if it plays out. Technically it is consolidating after a sharp upmove above its preious all time highs.

As of now, the fertiliser picks seem like good techno funda bets. But if govt delivers on its promise of DBT (direct benefit transfer) of fertiliser subsidy then the whole sector can do well over the medium to long term.

IT sector is showing tremendous strength mainly led by the frontline stocks. There are some other sectors too which seem to be playing catch up, but seems early days as of now to call a strong buy on any of these sectors. For me there still seems to be a lot of disconnect between what I see on the ground and what stock markets are indicating. So I am not too keen on going full throttle in my buying.

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Good evening Hitesh sir. I was looking at fertilizer stocks a few weeks ago and I started by studying coromandel. Began looking at its competitors and was shocked to find that Chambal beat it’s revenue and profits(by a small margin of course) and was valued at roughly 3 times less market cap. I began studying and putting the story together over weeks and your post managed to cover everything I wanted in less than 200 words!(I did not actually count this). Thank you for sharing your knowledge here and your ability to frame complicated thoughts in simple sentences. You have given me the conviction to go ahead and add chambal to my portfolio after weeks of second guessing! Thanks.
I had a question regards Bayer crop science though… it’s a fantastic company but it’s currently valued at above 40 PE. Do you not pay much heed to valuation when it comes to a company like Bayer due to the tailwinds in the sector + the technicals? Even if it performs well the only growth driver would be results without much hope of a PE re rating unless they perform spectacularly of course. So I was just wondering regards your mindset behind it. Apologies if the question is inappropriate
Also, I wanted your view on Kaveri seeds since I noticed that you had a position in it too some time back. I bought Kaveri seeds around the time of its results. One of my favourite pass times currently is watching it test it’s 200 DMA :slight_smile: … uptil now it’s not broken it and overall it still looks stable and undervalued. However, do you think it’s time to cut my losses and move on or do you feel it still has huge potential considering the agriculture tailwinds? Everything looks good apart from the audit overhang, however, due to the audit I’m finding it difficult to average down at its current price. So I’m a bit stuck with it ATM. Technically and fundamentally it looks brilliant… but the Audit overhang is playing against my conviction so I wanted your thoughts on it if possible. cheers.

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What is your current approach with Financials @hitesh2710

We seem to be in a waiting game to see how the impact of slowdown hits them as moratorium plays out and NPAs emerge. It is one area where recovery in prices is yet to come.

One lesson I am getting is that Value is difficult to define as in leveraged plays like financials things can go bad very quickly. So essentially you need to be more agile and go with momentum.

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@Malkd

Bayer crop is as you say a fantastic company. It has 3 main divisions, namely agrochem, seeds and environmental. All 3 divisions seem to be having good potential going forward. q1 fy 21 has been a blowout quarter. If such kind of results are repeated, then company can provide decent returns. It is a core portfolio kind of stock. Valuations would obviously be expensive because of the promoter pedigree and quality of business. Regarding re rating, one never knows how high or how low valuations can go depending upon the business environment and market perception. Our job is to find out good companies which have potential to show good growth and are available at not too expensive valuations. I like the techno funda picture in the company.

Kaveri is besieged by issues related to the audit and I think going ahead, there are two triggers lined up. First is removal of the overhang due to settlement or company getting a clean chit in relation to the IT issue. Second will be the second quarter results and how they pan out. Although the all important quarter is the first quarter and that has delivered good numbers, if second quarter has better than expected numbers, kaveri can show rally.

Technically it is showing consolidation above its 200 dema which I think could continue for some more time.

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@NNaik

Financials have begun to form good pattern on charts and are showing consistent strength after a long time. On the ground situation is something I am not too sure about. So as of now I am in a wait and watch mode.

Till date the negative news related to moratorium extension (and other matters which are being addressed by supreme court ) seen to be digested quite well by the markets as shown by the steady to upward movement in stock prices.

But I think in financials one will have to be choosy in picking stocks as rally may not be all encompassing.

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Hi Hitesh bhai ,
Whats your view on companies like CCL Products having cofee as its mainstay not performing great even during lockdown when other fmcg like nestle, britannia made a killing out of its sales ? Theres a view that the company is available cheap but somehow its made me realise that its more a commodity company and not fmcg type as earlier opinion . can it be treated as a deep value buy ?

Wonderla with the kind of correction it has seen , and with dominating share in south india in amusement park, whats your view on the same ?
Since some parts of the economy have started working albeit slowly , whats your view on Astral poly (into infrastructure due to pipes) and relaxo (eating share of unorganised sector in footwear that is facing problems due to lockdown ) ?

Many thanks

Hi Mr. Hitesh ,
Wanted to understand your opinion on Jagran Prakashan. I understand that circulation levels are back to over 90 percent and as revenues were also back to around 40 percent in Q1. At current price, It looks extremely undervalued , the management has also raised some money to mitigate any risks. With everything opening up quicker than expected, I believe there is great value at current market cap. Your opinion on the traditional newsprint industry in the coming couple of years.

Hello Hitesh Sir,
It will be nice to know your views on Alembic Pharma. Even though nothing has changed fundamentally (that came to my notice) since your last post; however technically (even though i just started learning technical) , it tried to cross the 1000 landmark thrice (hitting an all time high of 1128) and came back to lower levels. As per my understanding there is a strong resistance at that level. Are you still bullish on it and technically what should be a good stop loss. As per my limited knowledge approx. 900 seems to be a good support. Please correct me if i am wrong.
Thanks

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Hi Hitesh ji
Sir are You tracking Nasdaq 100 ETF, which is focusing on US markets as its all technology backed right with major exposure in FAANG stocks
Please guide

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I work as a branch manager in a rural bank in a district headquarter. What I can observe from my branch customers is most of the people who have availed moratorium are beginning to pay the instalments ,banks may not see that much rise in Npa. Overall the situation is not that scary as everyone imagined at the start of the lockdown.

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Hi Hitesh.
Can you share more insight on the sizable debt that Chambal have too.

Hi Hithesh sir
A big thank you for the guidance that you provide to novice investors like me. My query is on Transpek Industry. They have very respectable promoters , however the past two unfavorable events (accident at their site and postponement of CapEx on account of Covid) has led to the stock getting stuck even with the presence of sector tailwinds when compared to its peers. How to approach such situations when ones conviction starts jittering. The conservative management doesn’t help either.

@A_shah

Ccl products still remains largely a b2b player in the coffee sector. In q1 fy 21 concall,there was mention about a fairly significant new client acquisition from Vietnam plant, which should drive margin and growth. Problem with companies like CCL is that results will be lumpy on a quarterly basis and hence one has to have a reasonably long view on the company.

You can listen to q1 fy 21 concall to get a better idea about the business.

I have never been a big fan of Wonderla. It is one company which regularly gets handed lemons by circumstances, be it floods, drought, economic downturns, pandemic, you name it. In the near future, even if the covid disease recedes, the fear of contracting the disease will persist. This could hamper footfalls and hence growth for the company.

I don’t follow relaxo or Astral.

@Pankajvkdms, I have put my views on alembic multiple number of times. No use repeating them.

@Sandy2000, I don’t track US companies or etfs.

@MihirDam, I had earlier articulated my views on newspaper cos. Nothing new to add.

Looking at most of the questions on cos like wonderla, jagran etc, I think a lot of investors are focused on beaten down names. Nothing wrong in value buys, but it often takes a long long time for these companies to see light at the end of the tunnel. Hence one needs very high level of patience and conviction to hold on to these names. So one needs to have a lot of in depth research to uncover investment arguments to develop high level of conviction. Now if you need my views on these kind of companies to develop conviction to invest, maybe you have not done enough digging.

I am not a big fan of these beaten down companies unless I have a clear cut and compelling case to invest. I have had enough frustration over the years by looking at and investing in these kind of names. If these companies have been down and out since past so many quarters, I will like to be very sure about things that have changed for the company except the stock prices which may have gone down, down and down.

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Sir do you think even Market is factoring the same with ITC??