@gpharshas
SIP in good companies is an interesting approach. But for that I think one needs to select a bunch of well established companies and try and buy over a period of 2-3 years in an SIP approach especially in a weakish market. And then try to ride the position for next 5-10 years.
Canfin in the near term is likely to suffer business prospects because of slowdown in real estate and subsequently affecting growth in home loans.
A better combination can be solid businesses like asian paints, pidlite, hdfc bank, etc.
Even canfin may be interesting if the horizon as you suggest is sufficiently long. I dont track it too closely now to offer specific views.
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@Rushabh_Doshi
I have been following symphony and Mr Bakeriās concalls since a long time now. I have found him to be one of the sharpest guys around. So if he does business in a specific manner, he must have definite reasons for the same.
Putting up manufacturing operations has its own set of problems and if he has scaled up the business by outsourcing then so be it.
I think with respect to a guy who has brought symphony to where it is today, one has to leave it to him and believe he knows what is best for the company.
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@hitesh2710
Thank you Hitesh sir for your suggestion.
Yes I do have Titan, VIP industries and Canfin homes in my SIP portfolio along with few MFs. All planned until 2027-2030. Canfin homes is around 10% of my SIP and close to my heart, hence specifically asked about it pls. I will take your inputs and look for few more options.Thanks again.
@hitesh2710
Sir you tracking S H KELKAR ?? as this company available at mouth watering level just a Mcap of 850cr !!
Sorry for answering in Hiteshās thread but wanted to share one
thought of never ever having any financial company close to heart. I have paid price for that and so would have many. Even the most patient and docile investor need to be extremely ruthless with financials, specially NBFCsā¦ Thanks
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Retail Banks usually are conduits through which central banks Introduce Excess liquidity or reduces liquidity which affect share prices via level of investment
If an roe of many banks fall, while roce is rising and profits are higher, then it is an early indication that they are using a lot of debt and the markets are heating up. On the reverse side if roe is rising and roce is falling, it means the banks are using less debt and more equity. Profits will probably fall as debt is reduced But liquidity is being withdrawn
These 2 signals I think give an early indication by half year to one year if the bubble will burst or become bigger
However currently what we have is too many bad loans issue that will take time to come out of the system. The government is somehow trying to force liquidity and lower interest rate by asking banks to use rbi rates instead of bank rates on loans
I think one should not invest in them but keep your enemies closer than your friends
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@hitesh2710 Bhai Can you share please share your views on JB Chemicals - how its placed compared to the pharma pack and considering the PE interest that is on at the moment?
@Vpayasam
Jb chem stock priceās last leg of price run up seems due to the possibility of stake sale by promoters.
Fundamentally there seems limited upside possible.
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I read the concall transcript of drl for q4 fy 20. Pbt without extraordinary was up 55% and if one considers eps without these EO, it comes to 150-55.
The company has posted the concall transcript on its website. With the kind of product launches lined up especially suboxone, company can show good growth in US portfolio. It reported 17% growth in US portfolio for FY 20 over FY 19. Europe growth seems to be strong with 43 million USD revenues for FY 20 and which is a growth of 53% over FY 19. In the concall, reading between lines, the feeling I get is that management seems very confident of growth in these geographies.
Wockhardt domestic portfolio acquisition would boost domestic growth. As of now, stuck in regulatory process. Currently, only 15% revenues account for domestic sales.
Company is net cash with 2000 crores annual cash flow, so wockhardt acquisition should be largely funded by internal accruals.
I feel a lot of growth drivers are lined up for Dr Reddys for next few quarters. Stock has had a good run up recently from the breakout zone of 3300 to current levels of 3900. Previous all time high was 4300 levels. Above that there can be strong momentum.
disc: invested.
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A letter by John Templeton back from 1954 which has a lot of relevance to current market conditions.
Very enjoyable and lucid read. templeton letter.pdf (2.6 MB)
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The letter captures current market mood so precisely. Personally I can see many of my relatives have started dabbling in stocks since yields on other investments have fallen so much, and these are the individuals who are highly conservative in their investments. Lets see how far this rally goes. Thanks for sharing Hitesh sir.
Thanks for sharing this wonderful letter. I completely agree when Mr Templeton says that when Quality is expensive, one should look for medium quality stocks which Mr. market has not identified & their is strong earnings potential in the near future.
Interesting point which I see is way back in 1954 also quality was very expensive and it remains the same decades laterā¦ question is which quality stock still remains quality decades later, which business has longevity and management has basic ethics to remain in that bracketā¦I see FMCG as such a business, what elseā¦
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Hitesh Bhai,
Could you pls give your views on Rail Vikas Nigam. Is the growth story still intact in this stock that it will continue to grow at 25% sales Cagr
Hi Hitesh Bhai,
Thanks for sharing this. Very nice to read John Templetonās letter during the current uncertain times.
I have a few general questions. If you can answer some or all, it would be great.
I know that you had moved part of your portfolio to cash or itās equivalents during sometime Mar/Apr.
How much percentage of that cash has been deployed so far?
In which Sector/Stock those funds have been deployed?
If you havenāt deployed any, are you feeling FOMO ? or Do you think itās just dead cat bounce?
And finally, what is your overall observation of current market? Is it wise to book some profit from the table for those investors who are SIPping for last 12 weeks?
As always, thanks very much for your time, patience and knowledge.
Regards,
Ramesh
@hitesh2710 hitesh bhai - can you share some light on how to ride a success story and what should be a proper exit plan for a long term investor. Putting stop losses like 20,30 or 40% feels like double edge sword - some times beneficial, while sometimes feel foolishness. How to exit gracefully is a very less discussed topic. Please share some insights and techniques on this topic based on your experience ā¦
@hitesh2710 ji, what do you look for to judge management quality?
Hi what is your view on KRBL, they are earning high ROEs and have no debt in a business that will not be affected by Covid. However they do have an albatross of Corporate governance issues which have been mostly proved to be wrong.
And Nilkamal, if you are tracking these two.@hitesh2710
Hitesh Ji can add but my 2 cents , see the mgmt commentary in the last 5 to 6 yrs annual reports starting with the oldest and underline the commitments, projections made whether its reduction in debt , growth projections, capex , any other āand then find out if those actually materialized in subsequent annual reports of future yrs and if did not then what were the reasons given by mgmt āmgmt controllable or external uncontrollable ( like corona etc )ā¦will tell you a lot about the Quality of the mgmt and how good is their understanding of the business and if their plans / words have any real basis or those are added just to fill the pages ā¦its a bit of a hard work but thats one of the simplest recourse available to minority shareholders like me who dont have access to mgmt interactions except for earning calls as silent listeners !
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I donāt track the sector closely, but have some idea about the company (as i am belonging from Gujarat).
1.More than 50% of the volumes coming from the single district that too from single industry i.e. ceramic industry (will take time to recover post-covid), Morbi add a concentration risk.
2. Capex in pipeline and a regulated industry needs to be watched.
3. Also the environment friendly fuels available at a lower price like biofuel (specifically in Gujarat), will either add volume concerns or margin pressure.
4. High capex and competition in CNG space will drag the ROCEs
IMO, wonāt be able to paint the company with same brush as in the case of IGL, MGL, etc. and therefore the valuations due to different resource availability.
Counter views invited.
