The retail liquidity in the form of SIP money has been on a constant upward trajectory since past few years. And now it has attained a sizable mass. This has made a big difference in the last couple of years wherein the FIIs were selling consistently in Indian markets, and still Indian markets were able to weather the storm mainly due to constant inflows into mutual funds.
What I have seen in the behavior pattern of SIP investors is that they do not keep checking their NAVs on a regular daily basis and hence do not panic and withdraw. ( If the markets were to fall consistently in future this scenario can change too, but as of now its a very steady flow into SIPs.) Whereas the retail folks who invest in markets directly (barring the knowledgeable investor group) tend to panic at the earliest sign of trouble. But this class of investors hardly matter in the overall scheme of things if we consider the whole market. The size of their total funds is quite small on an overall basis. A lot of retail guys have joined the option writing bandwagon and there are some folks training them and making them believe that there are guaranteed returns of around 2% per month to be made. But we all know that there are no free lunches in the markets. Risk often comes from an entirely unexpected direction. So we see some cracks off and on in the small and midcaps on some days… Part of that is due to routine corrections and part of it is due to margin calls being triggered on such F&O positions of retail guys.
Regarding returns coming big and fast recently in last 2-3 years, that is usually the case in strong bull markets. I have heard smart folks making huge money in the 2003-2007 bull market. ( I was not an active participant in that period) In the 2014-2017 period also a lot of smart folks made big money. I too enjoyed my share of success during that period. There are some such periods of strong bull markets and in those times, if you select your stocks wisely and allocate properly, these are times which can take you towards big wealth creation.
A rising tide lifts all boats. So a lot of participants who do invest even with half baked knowledge end up doing well. Those who are more enlightened have a ball. It’s only the leaky boats that find problems in such great times also. This is akin to a portfolio filled to the brim with stocks like chemical stocks in current phase of bull market.
During sideways markets, or bear markets too there will be stocks that will outperform. But these will be few and difficult to find. And the kind of returns in these times are much less than those enjoyed during bull markets. So expectations have to be tempered down and safety of capital has to be the main focus.
Biggest problem is retaining the returns generated during these kind of bull markets. Bear markets that usually follow are brutal by nature and often come with little warning and do not give enough time to act or react.