ValuePickr Forum

Hitesh portfolio

@hitesh2710
Hiteshbhai what’s your view on sun pharma s latest results and on biocon results and new adverse news of resignation

@hitesh2710 Hello Hitesh Bhai. Hitesh Bhai, What’s your view on Kanchi Karpooram? Kapoor prices are high right now, and their 5x expansion is now live.

It could be a good time to enter the stock to multiply money in a short span and then exit it when the new capacity would be maxing.

@HIMSHAH

Sun pharma seems to be gradually coming out of the woods. But one would need to listen to concall and see how management sees the path ahead. Most big pharma companies have put up a good show this quarter, barring the odd DRL, where once the impairments are out of the way, stock price can see a sharp move. Again need to listen in to concall to make a sense of when these impairments are going to go off.

@Ajjugattu I dont track IEX.

4 Likes

@pankaj_xxxx

The prices of commodities like camphor can move either way very fast. So while evaluating companies like Kanchi Karpooram one has to account for the volatility in prices of the underlying product and raw materials involved.

Trying to get in with the hope of multiplying money in short span of time is easier said than done. There are no free lunches in the market and there are often mines laid out by the markets which we need to avoid while trying to go too fast.

9 Likes

Hi Hitesh sir, would like to get your views on Laurus both in terms of future prospects and technicals.

Do you think they will be able to keep growing at a high pace in future?

Also, how does the stock looks technically? It has knack of falling after good results.

@fundoo

Laurus has a remarkable track record in terms of both topline and bottomline growth over past few quarters. Its rare to find companies which can show such fast growth. Usually maximum money in a stock’s journey is made during its fast growth phase. Usually there is strong disbelief when a company grows so fast. The usual queries raised are those related to cash flows, balance sheet issues, or promoter issues. The other question vexing investors in such growth stories is how long is this growth going to last?

Listening to the concall post results provides a clear idea about where the company is going. It seems Dr Chhava has mapped out the growth path of Laurus and is going on that path with sure footed approach. With acquisition of Richcore, he has put a foot in biiologicals space. My guess is next he will try to acquire injectable assets. He is trying to put in building blocks for long term consistent growth. The only worry sometimes is “Is it too fast”. But as long as numbers keep coming through, as investors we remain assured about the company’s prospects.

Ajanta during its strong growth phase also suffered from similar issues. Even with very strong quarterly results, the stock price used to correct and that too when valuations were sub 10 PE. But over a period of time as the numbers keep coming, market participants come around to accepting the company as a strong growth story and give appropriate valuations. So Laurus correcting immediately post quarterly numbers is nothing new. And a lot of punters take ultra short term positions in the run up to results and because of whatever reason if the stock does not go up, they are the first to bail out of their positions at whatever prices.

Technically the previous major top of Laurus was at 340-45 range from where it fell down to post a bottom in the region of 250-60. Now after taking out its top during the latest upmove it seems to be taking support at 340-45 region. But we still need to see for few more days, After posting a bottom at 255, Laurus has broken out of a cup and handle pattern above 340-45, with target of 420 plus.

56 Likes

Thank you for the detailed post on laurus sir, do you track icici bank?? The numbers are good from the last few quarters. Please give your views.

Thank you Hitesh sir.
This analysis, coming from YOU and on top of that from an experienced doctor means that there is big growth going forward.I remember 2.5 years back, in response to my query on speciality chemicals, you mentioned GMM Pfaudler as ancillary play when it was just picking up its popularity and was at around 1000 bucks.
Keeping fingers crossed, lets hope Laurus has a same trajectory :slight_smile:

Couple of days back, Madhu Kela also mentioned bullishness on the stock and his liking for the promoter.
He mentioned how the growth trajectory looks similar to Divi’s.And Mr Kela is a pharma investment veteran from Reliance MF days. Of course, a good due diligence is required before buying a substantial chunk.
The current market cap of Laurus is around 18000 crores.
Do you think it can reach 1 lacs crores like Divi’s?

7 Likes

Sir any view you have on neulands? The market cap is very small and the company is confident about 20% growth for next few years.

1 Like

@abhijain

Divis has largely remained only an API player. Whereas Laurus has besides APIs moved into formulations, biologicals, and synthesis divisions. I do not know whether it is a good thing or a bad thing, but till now formulation has helped Laurus in showing very strong and profitable growth. Plus it also increases the opportunity size, being in adjacent businesses.

Whether Laurus can repeat Divi’s feat is something only time will tell. But one pointer from history is that after a few years consistent growth and after gaining market fancy and trust, Divis commands valuations of nearly 45-55 PE. Whereas Laurus currently is at less than 20 PE based on estimated FY 21 EPS. So some amount of re rating can still happen if company continues to show the kind of growth it has shown. Markets often take time to digest and come to terms with the kind of numbers Laurus has been posting. So for Laurus investors it remains a game of conviction and patience.

@Vikky9995 I dont track icici bank too closely.

33 Likes

@ram1984

Neuland remains an interesting company in terms of its market cap being small as compared to the opportunity size it has. Even after the recent run up it still remains a sub 2000 crores market cap company. The quarterly profit run rate is also small at around 25-27 crores since past 2 quarters. The company provides detailed presentation about its business.

The contribution of higher margin business continues to rise in the overall mix of things. Plus a new capacity has just come on stream since this quarter. So my guess is that company will continue to perform well going forward and that’s why markets are paying a premium to the company.

20 Likes

Hi Hitesh sir,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. As a disclosure neuland is my second largest holding right now so my views are positively biased.
Just wanted to quickly add a couple of points for the benefit of your followers:

  1. Neuland management is very conservative and only guide for 15-20% topline growth and 20% ebitda margins in medium term. I am stating this since the OP’s question incorrectly claimed that management is confident about 20% growth. In fact management has stated in latest concall that they are of a very conservative mindset and would like to underpromise and overdeliver instead of the other way around.
  2. IMHO neuland is not richly valued, it is infact undervalued. The TTM pe is optically high due to 1 time tax outgo in March’20 quarter due to changing the tax regime and write down of some tax assets. Right now, price/sales might be a reasonable metric which is around ~2x right now despite the business mix changing in the right direction, as pointed out by you.

Thank you so much again for sharing your rich understanding and thoughts with all your followers, I personally continue to learn a lot from your writings. :pray:

17 Likes

Hitesh Sir
What’s your view on Auto sector
Companies likely to benefit post Covid and recent budget
Specially 2W - Hero MotoCorp
4W- Maruti
I am invested in both
Long term holding

1 Like

Hitesh Sir,
request your views on Sahyadri Industries , a small cap company which is engaged in the roofing business . It has suddenly picked up growth since past 2-3 qtrs and having a TTM EPS of 51 and PE of 6-7 . I am invested and would like your views . Regards.

@virtualmanish

Auto sector has seen a strong revival after being in the dumps for many quarters.

I like all 3 companies in 2W space, bajaj auto, hero moto and tvs motors.

In PV and CV space, I think one can play through ancillaries also. Maruti going ahead is going to face heavy competition from the likes of hyundai, kia, Renault, VW etc. My guess is over the long term its market share is bound to go down, and with increasing competition, there could be pressure on growth rates.

9 Likes

@satish58

Sahyadri is a typical cyclical company in the roofing sheets business. We need to be careful about not getting caught at the wrong time in the cycle.

Optically, these companies appear cheap on PE parameters bcos market does not pay high multiple to these types of companies.

Currently earnings are on an upward trajectory and there may be a case for investment in it. But these kind of investments come with an expiry date. One needs to know when to sell. These are not buy and forget type long term bets.

7 Likes

Hi Hitesh Sir, do you track RACL Gear Tech in the auto ancillaries space. Would like to know your thoughts if you do. There is a very interesting thread on it here and found many Value Pickr members bullish on the company. Based on my analysis, it has all the right mix to become a multibagger.

1 Like

Hi Hitesh Ji! What is your view on Ester Industries. Its fundamentals appear to be very appealing for investment. Its share price appreciation has been very significant in last few months. It has not been able to break the resistance level at about 122 or so. What is your view in respect of its future? Regards!

1 Like

Hitesh Sir,
Thanks for your views on Sahyadri Industries. Will keep in mind your suggestion to exit at the appropriate time.
Another interesting company is Savita Oil Technologies Limited ( SOTL) . Very outstanding results with strong fundamentals.
Request your comments . Regards

Hitesh Sir,
Godawari Ispat and Power , a mid cap steel maker appears interesting . I have invested in the same .
May i seek your advice. Regards